We keep hearing that FAU is bringing a good team into Lincoln on Saturday. While I don't doubt the Owls have some punch and talent, I am one that believes they are heavily outmatched. In looking at what the Owls did last season, I did not come away impressed. Throw in the inexperience they have on both sides of the ball, and I see NU running away with this one by halftime.
It goes without saying that you can't sleep on any team on Saturday, but that doesn't make your competition better than what they are on paper. FAU has some players, but they're just not ready to contend with the big boys. If talent alone doesn't kill them, depth will.
I'm not buying into the 'close game' talk at all. I realize that FAU is doing some big things down in Boca Raton...they are coming on strong for a new program. However, the Sun Belt limelight does not translate into W's against the BCS boys yet.
FAU BY THE NUMBERS:
In 2008, the Owls played four Top 60 Defenses....all losses:
4 of those losses came in the first 5 games. However, FAU was able to win 6 out of it's last 7 games. I've heard most sources attributing that to the fact that Rusty was....well......a bit rusty. You'd think that the Owls suddenly 'woke up' and got it going mid-season, but there's a very telling number:
98
This is the average ranking of the defensive unit that the Owls faced in their 7 wins in 2008. That list consisted of #106 UAB, (unranked, but given a generous #70 ranking) Western Kentucky, #109 Louisiana Monroe, #119 North Texas, #105 Louisiana Lafayette, #71 FIU, #104 Central Michigan.
Even as poorly ranked as those defenses were, FAU won 4 of those games by very narrow margins (4 points, 1 point, 7 points in OT, 3 points). Not to take anything away from FAU; they showed heart and won those close games. However, the way Florida Atlantic lost their games, leads me to believe that Florida Atlantic was not as good as their record claims.
FAU won 7 games in 2008, by an average of 10.5 points....but they lost 6 games by an average of 20.1 points. The Owls beat up on the weakest defenses in college football, then got held to an average of less than 10 points in each loss by non-premier defenses.
Rusty Smith may be a good quarterback in the Sun Belt, but he has been underwhelming against decent opposition. In 2008's losses, Rusty tossed out an average completion percentage of 45.75% (including 8 for 34 for 23.5% against Michigan State). By comparison, Joe Ganz threw for an average of 67.55% in Nebraska's 4 losses last year.
NOT-SO BOLD PREDICTION:
The FAU offense only returns 6 starters. Florida Atlantic's running game is relying on a sophomore (Alfred Morris) with 7 career carries, 4 of them coming against one of the worst rushing defenses in Division I football (#105 North Texas). Making his first start against NU (#21 in rushing defense in 2008) is not going to help matters. Nebraska's run defense may not be in prime form during game one, but I think the Blackshirts face a much better offense in practice on a daily basis.
FAU has the ability to put up good pass numbers, but if last year was any indication, they will not be able to slow down Nebraska's above average pass rush. The lack of a proven running game will give Nebraska the opportunity to blitz early and often.
No disrespect to FAU, but the owls are an okay team in a lower-tier conference. The defense should go from bad to worse with the loss of 8 starters. The offense appears to be one-dimensional until the young backs get some experience. Suh and company should be a bit more than a rookie running back can handle, forcing the stationary Rusty Smith to put the game on his arm. Rusty Smith's immobility (37 attempts for -82 yards in 2008) could be costly. If the running game doesn't take off out of the gate, Smith may be a sitting duck. If he can get the ball out quickly, the experience at wideout may be able to test NU's unproven secondary on the deep ball. Unfortunately, this strategy may be tough to get going without a running game to keep the pass rush honest.
Nebraska has a legitimate Top 25 team in a premier conference, with a balanced attack on offense and a defensive group that is starting to gain momentum in year two of coach Bo Pelini's system. Look for NU's defense to hit the Owls in the mouth from the jump and own the game. I think any less than 4 sacks will be a disappointment. Expect to see heavy doses of the 2nd units early in the 3rd quarter.
On offense, I think Zac Lee will put up spring game type numbers. FAU returns 3 starters from a defense that ranked #92 in 2008. That could be viewed as a good thing, but inexperience is going to be a huge challenge against Nebraska's attack...even with all of the major question marks at the skill positions. The run game should be able to carry the load if things aren't clicking in the air.
Expect both Cody Green and Latravis Washington to get significant reps in the 2nd half. Burkhead should see plenty of action as well. All of the receivers should be in heavy rotation throughout the entire game (as the coaches have eluded).
Special Teams should be solid, but NU probably won't do much kicking in the first half.
3 days left!
:bonez
It goes without saying that you can't sleep on any team on Saturday, but that doesn't make your competition better than what they are on paper. FAU has some players, but they're just not ready to contend with the big boys. If talent alone doesn't kill them, depth will.
I'm not buying into the 'close game' talk at all. I realize that FAU is doing some big things down in Boca Raton...they are coming on strong for a new program. However, the Sun Belt limelight does not translate into W's against the BCS boys yet.
FAU BY THE NUMBERS:
In 2008, the Owls played four Top 60 Defenses....all losses:
- #51 Texas, 52-10
- #58 Michigan State, 17-0
- #34 Troy, 30-17
- #46 Arkansas State, 28-14
4 of those losses came in the first 5 games. However, FAU was able to win 6 out of it's last 7 games. I've heard most sources attributing that to the fact that Rusty was....well......a bit rusty. You'd think that the Owls suddenly 'woke up' and got it going mid-season, but there's a very telling number:
98
This is the average ranking of the defensive unit that the Owls faced in their 7 wins in 2008. That list consisted of #106 UAB, (unranked, but given a generous #70 ranking) Western Kentucky, #109 Louisiana Monroe, #119 North Texas, #105 Louisiana Lafayette, #71 FIU, #104 Central Michigan.
Even as poorly ranked as those defenses were, FAU won 4 of those games by very narrow margins (4 points, 1 point, 7 points in OT, 3 points). Not to take anything away from FAU; they showed heart and won those close games. However, the way Florida Atlantic lost their games, leads me to believe that Florida Atlantic was not as good as their record claims.
FAU won 7 games in 2008, by an average of 10.5 points....but they lost 6 games by an average of 20.1 points. The Owls beat up on the weakest defenses in college football, then got held to an average of less than 10 points in each loss by non-premier defenses.
Rusty Smith may be a good quarterback in the Sun Belt, but he has been underwhelming against decent opposition. In 2008's losses, Rusty tossed out an average completion percentage of 45.75% (including 8 for 34 for 23.5% against Michigan State). By comparison, Joe Ganz threw for an average of 67.55% in Nebraska's 4 losses last year.
NOT-SO BOLD PREDICTION:
The FAU offense only returns 6 starters. Florida Atlantic's running game is relying on a sophomore (Alfred Morris) with 7 career carries, 4 of them coming against one of the worst rushing defenses in Division I football (#105 North Texas). Making his first start against NU (#21 in rushing defense in 2008) is not going to help matters. Nebraska's run defense may not be in prime form during game one, but I think the Blackshirts face a much better offense in practice on a daily basis.
FAU has the ability to put up good pass numbers, but if last year was any indication, they will not be able to slow down Nebraska's above average pass rush. The lack of a proven running game will give Nebraska the opportunity to blitz early and often.
No disrespect to FAU, but the owls are an okay team in a lower-tier conference. The defense should go from bad to worse with the loss of 8 starters. The offense appears to be one-dimensional until the young backs get some experience. Suh and company should be a bit more than a rookie running back can handle, forcing the stationary Rusty Smith to put the game on his arm. Rusty Smith's immobility (37 attempts for -82 yards in 2008) could be costly. If the running game doesn't take off out of the gate, Smith may be a sitting duck. If he can get the ball out quickly, the experience at wideout may be able to test NU's unproven secondary on the deep ball. Unfortunately, this strategy may be tough to get going without a running game to keep the pass rush honest.
Nebraska has a legitimate Top 25 team in a premier conference, with a balanced attack on offense and a defensive group that is starting to gain momentum in year two of coach Bo Pelini's system. Look for NU's defense to hit the Owls in the mouth from the jump and own the game. I think any less than 4 sacks will be a disappointment. Expect to see heavy doses of the 2nd units early in the 3rd quarter.
On offense, I think Zac Lee will put up spring game type numbers. FAU returns 3 starters from a defense that ranked #92 in 2008. That could be viewed as a good thing, but inexperience is going to be a huge challenge against Nebraska's attack...even with all of the major question marks at the skill positions. The run game should be able to carry the load if things aren't clicking in the air.
Expect both Cody Green and Latravis Washington to get significant reps in the 2nd half. Burkhead should see plenty of action as well. All of the receivers should be in heavy rotation throughout the entire game (as the coaches have eluded).
Special Teams should be solid, but NU probably won't do much kicking in the first half.
- NU by 24+
- FAU held under 21
- 4+ sacks
- 2 INT
- 1 Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown (NU)
- Zac Lee - 3 TDs / 0 INT
3 days left!
:bonez
