Osborne Greatest of All Time
- Thread starter socalhusker07
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HUSKER 37
All-American
knapplc
International Man of Mystery
It's not impossible - that was a poor choice of words. It's just highly improbable.
Here's a pretty simplistic breakdown of my fuzzy recollection of the voting.
So the first time I noticed the votes the percentages were about 51-38. I'm guesstimating there were about 10,000 votes because for these numbers that's far simpler. TO had around 51% of the votes and Bear had around 38%-ish percent. Then over the next few days TO's percentage shrank, but Bear's percentage stayed relatively the same (20,000). Then it got really tight (30,000), and over the last few days it's gone from TO having a huge lead in percentage to Bear catching TO (35,000) back to TO jumping WAY out in front (40,000).
The real problem comes in with the last set of numbers over the last two or three days. Between Monday and today, according to the percentages ESPN is giving us, Bear Bryant would have received nearly no votes, while TO has increased his total by about one third. That's an increase of one third of all votes he's received over the course of the last couple of weeks in just two days.
It is highly improbable that the Bama fans would have voted SO MUCH over the last several days that Bear Bryant not only caught TO with his huge lead but surpassed him, and then over the course of about 36 hours they apparently nearly stopped voting entirely while Husker fans turned out in droves?
Now, I think these numbers are WAY conservative. I think there are more likely to be anywhere near a million votes in this thing total. That makes the numbers even more improbable, since the sheer volume of votes it would take to drastically alter the percentages once we get upwards of 500,000 votes (where a one-percent change means a bare minimum of 5,000 votes in either direction), and we see that TO has dropped five or six percent, then JUMPED ten percent - well, you can see how unlikely that is.
Now, I'm no mathematician and I freely admit I need Excel to do even basic calculations, so if someone can explain the error(s) in my logic I'm all ears.
But that's why I think there has been some manipulation of these numbers over the last few days on ESPN's part.
Osborne who?
Walk-on
CHEATERS! IS THIS HOW OSBORNE WON HIS GAMES.... BY CHEATING?? MACRO (CHEAT) ALL YOU WANT BUT WHO IS THE NCAA FOOTBALL COACH OF THE YEAR AWARD NAMED IN HONOR OF? PAUL "BEAR" BRYANT
Bleeding Husker Red
Starter
And mass voting clubs aren't cheating? I suspect if I examined the Bama boards I'd find more than a few cheaters there too....
knapplc
International Man of Mystery
A) the macros don't work. ESPN takes ONE VOTE per ISP per day. So even if anyone was trying to cheat, it wouldn't work.
B ) See my post directly above yours, Sparky. Whether you, I or the guy down the street wants to cheat is irrelevant - ESPN is screwing with the numbers on their own anyway.
C) At the end of the day ESPN and some doofus poll doesn't determine who the "Best College Coach of ALL TIME" is - you and I and the rest of the real fans do. We all know that Bear Bryant and Tom Osborne are right up there in the top five, probably the top two. Who is #1 and who is #2? Who knows? Who cares? Anyone who follows college football and thinks that either is undeserving of the discussion is an idiot anyway.
Much respect to 'Bama and 'Bama fans and Bear Bryant. I'm sure you feel the same about TO and Nebraska.
D) Seriously - don't stress about this. If TO wins this, are you really going to respect Bear Bryant any less? If Bryant wins, I'm not going to love TO any less.
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knapplc
International Man of Mystery
At last check it's 50-36 in favor of TO.
I know I said this before, but it bears repeating - at this stage, it has to be a lock for Osborne. There's almost no way he can be beaten. If there are 50,000 votes (and again, that's a LOW estimate) he must be up by 7,000 votes. This thing ends in 24 hours. There's NO WAY he can be overtaken in that amount of time.
I know I said this before, but it bears repeating - at this stage, it has to be a lock for Osborne. There's almost no way he can be beaten. If there are 50,000 votes (and again, that's a LOW estimate) he must be up by 7,000 votes. This thing ends in 24 hours. There's NO WAY he can be overtaken in that amount of time.
redblooded
Special Teams Player
The ESPN site has no such vote verification. If it did there would be absolutely no swing like there was when Bear took the lead or like there was for TO last night.
Your estimation in the 50's of thousands of votes is not only WAY LOW, its off by an order of magnitude or two. The reason you don't see anything happening dumping 50-50000 votes in has nothing to do with the espn site. Fact is there are so many votes there that a small amount like that won't even move the scales let alone tip them at this point.
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knapplc
International Man of Mystery
I assume you checked, so you know they have no such verification? I did not, I just took the word of a guy who posted here earlier... and I have no way of verifying.
I'm fully willing to believe you, and if you are correct that only confirms what I've been saying all along - this "poll" is a joke. I used 10K - 50K as low-number examples because they're easier to type and grasp. I fully believe that there are millions of votes, if not tens of millions, simply because this is how many votes typically come in during these "polls."
So assuming there are 50 million votes, not 50 thousand, that only lends further credence to the fact that it is improbable - nay, nigh on impossible - for there to have been a swing of no less than 15% in the past 36 hours, and it just about proves that ESPN has been screwing around with the percentages they display.
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redblooded
Special Teams Player
My estimation puts the vote count at probably somewhere around or slightly under 20 million votes Today... with somewhere around 2 to 2.5 million votes going into yesterday's swing in the poll.
Its been macro'd to hell and back for quite awhile. When Robinson went from like 3-6% it was because both Nebraska fans and bama fans (apparently) were using the same unconfigured browser macro.