OSU Spread

GBRFAN said:
Almost every pass play has to show some sign of at least one receiver going vertical - if not the defense will sit on the receivers and then jump routes. TA needs to be told and then he needs to remember to avoid the deep ball unless it is clearly open. Based on MR presser it sounds like this has been discussed and looks pretty good in practice, however as we all know the speed of game time situations will tend to send people back to what they are comfortable with. It is looking more and more that MR and DL are happy to have a competitor at QB, however are counting the days until they can get a better decision maker into the spot.
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Absolutely agree. My post probably came off as a bit naive for that reason - Thanks for pointing that out. I agree that you have to have a combination of routes.

I was pretty disillusioned with Saturday's offensive performance. It's just so frustrating to have the best WR group in the conference going largely to waste. I love the heart that Tommy shows...love that guy.

Just frustrating that finally, our defense does its job in a big game. Then it's back to Turnover City and play that is largely ineffective.

I don't have much hope against Ohio State...but obviously, I've never wanted to be more wrong!

 
Undone said:
GBRFAN said:
Almost every pass play has to show some sign of at least one receiver going vertical - if not the defense will sit on the receivers and then jump routes. TA needs to be told and then he needs to remember to avoid the deep ball unless it is clearly open. Based on MR presser it sounds like this has been discussed and looks pretty good in practice, however as we all know the speed of game time situations will tend to send people back to what they are comfortable with. It is looking more and more that MR and DL are happy to have a competitor at QB, however are counting the days until they can get a better decision maker into the spot.
Click to expand...
Absolutely agree. My post probably came off as a bit naive for that reason - Thanks for pointing that out. I agree that you have to have a combination of routes.

I was pretty disillusioned with Saturday's offensive performance. It's just so frustrating to have the best WR group in the conference going largely to waste. I love the heart that Tommy shows...love that guy.

Just frustrating that finally, our defense does its job in a big game. Then it's back to Turnover City and play that is largely ineffective.

I don't have much hope against Ohio State...but obviously, I've never wanted to be more wrong!
Click to expand...
Having a convo the other day about this concept. And when Riley was asked about Tommy in post game presser, all he can say was "he competed like crazy". he showed great improvement to start the year. But he's really tailored off, for whatever variety of reasons. Really on the struggle bus now. He'd be the first to admit to it. But the thing is, when really the first and only thing you can say about your starting qb on a routine basis is things like "great competitor. plays hard. leader. warrior4. big heart" its very telling of what he brings to the table. And i really feel for him. I just wonder what coulda been for him had he not been Beck'd up as he was. I know i always go back to that, but it is what it is.

 
I think the spread is fair. I calculated -13.5, per the numbers, on a neutral field. I have to wonder if the Buckeyes are hurting as much as our guys, too. Even if they are, I think they've got a bit more talent stockpiled away over there. Remember when they only mattered one game a year (IF Michigan was undefeated)? The Buckeyes and Wolverines have demonstrated they're on a different level than the rest of the conference at this point in the season. I'm all for Nebraska taking them down, of course, but you have to take such things into account when your money's at stake.

 
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Count 'Bility said:
Undone said:
GBRFAN said:
Almost every pass play has to show some sign of at least one receiver going vertical - if not the defense will sit on the receivers and then jump routes. TA needs to be told and then he needs to remember to avoid the deep ball unless it is clearly open. Based on MR presser it sounds like this has been discussed and looks pretty good in practice, however as we all know the speed of game time situations will tend to send people back to what they are comfortable with. It is looking more and more that MR and DL are happy to have a competitor at QB, however are counting the days until they can get a better decision maker into the spot.
Click to expand...
Absolutely agree. My post probably came off as a bit naive for that reason - Thanks for pointing that out. I agree that you have to have a combination of routes.

I was pretty disillusioned with Saturday's offensive performance. It's just so frustrating to have the best WR group in the conference going largely to waste. I love the heart that Tommy shows...love that guy.

Just frustrating that finally, our defense does its job in a big game. Then it's back to Turnover City and play that is largely ineffective.

I don't have much hope against Ohio State...but obviously, I've never wanted to be more wrong!
Click to expand...
Having a convo the other day about this concept. And when Riley was asked about Tommy in post game presser, all he can say was "he competed like crazy". he showed great improvement to start the year. But he's really tailored off, for whatever variety of reasons. Really on the struggle bus now. He'd be the first to admit to it. But the thing is, when really the first and only thing you can say about your starting qb on a routine basis is things like "great competitor. plays hard. leader. warrior4. big heart" its very telling of what he brings to the table. And i really feel for him. I just wonder what coulda been for him had he not been Beck'd up as he was. I know i always go back to that, but it is what it is.
Click to expand...
I've noticed that the entire time Riley/Langsdorf have been here. Basically any time they've talked about him - from spring ball through the season - about the only thing they say about him is how hard he competes, how much of a leader he is, etc. You almost never hear them talk about how well he played/practiced. Pretty telling.

But I disagree with your last sentence. You can make an argument that Beck got more out of him the Langsdorf has. He has always had bad mechanics and that's not changing. Those things were set in motion long before he got to campus.

 
NU +14.5 or more is a weekly special, IMO. OSU is underperforming in recent weeks and NU rules Q4. Terrible combination for an OSU bet as a large favorite. Also revenge factor for NU feeling probably a bit robbed yet with a win it'll be beating Wiscy at the same time as it probably gives the divisional crown to the Huskers.

 
Seems like the line is moving even further. My buddy just gave me +16.5 at 110. I never bet on the Huskers. I have a hard time believing that tOSU wins by 2+ TDs, but you never know. I don't know how we stack up against a mobile QB.

 
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Reading up on some tOSU stuff the last couple days, seems like a lot of people are pointing to lacking play-making WRs as causing a lot of their problems. Maybe there is one guy who's playing well but the other guys struggle to get open. So teams are doubling one guy and stacking the box against the run. Without more threats in the passing game, it's making it pretty hard on everyone else.

Perhaps a couple WRs being injured playing into that? I think that was also mentioned.

 
Mavric said:
Reading up on some tOSU stuff the last couple days, seems like a lot of people are pointing to lacking play-making WRs as causing a lot of their problems. Maybe there is one guy who's playing well but the other guys struggle to get open. So teams are doubling one guy and stacking the box against the run. Without more threats in the passing game, it's making it pretty hard on everyone else.

Perhaps a couple WRs being injured playing into that? I think that was also mentioned.
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OSU's WRs over the last few years had some unfortunate injuries. Brown, Campbell, Clark, Hill, Smith, and Wilson had injuries and Gibson being suspended also didn't help. Part of the problem is JT running for his life which makes it hard to throw downfield.

 
Mavric said:
Reading up on some tOSU stuff the last couple days, seems like a lot of people are pointing to lacking play-making WRs as causing a lot of their problems. Maybe there is one guy who's playing well but the other guys struggle to get open. So teams are doubling one guy and stacking the box against the run. Without more threats in the passing game, it's making it pretty hard on everyone else.

Perhaps a couple WRs being injured playing into that? I think that was also mentioned.
Click to expand...
We should be able to create similar problems for this offense as the ones they have been facing the last few weeks.
That being said OSU could come out and put together a really good offensive outing

 
I have a program that I created for my weekly playing that adds in several ratings / factors to spit out what the line "should" be, then I bet lightly or heavily based on the variance from the "should be" line and the actual line. In this case, I think Nebraska should be getting 15, and I can get it right now at 17, so I'm likely going to lock that in with the free (in my system's opinion) 2 points.

I will add, I work in Cincinnati with a TON of tOSU fans, and they are not the least big confident about this game. I can't get any of them, and they are usually UK-basketball-level homers, to even bet lunch on the game with the current line.

All of that said, I think they figure it out and we get boat-raced, and if so, my son and I will be leaving before the joint empties after the game. Still not convinced taking an 11 year old to that joint is my father-of-the-year moment.

 
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