Our Finish in Big10 West

[brophog]

Despite that No. 63 ranked schedule, advanced rankings (i.e. Sagarin had them at No. 7) looked at Wisconsin as a very, very good team.  Winning 13 games isn't easy.

Wisconsin is a good team, and I believe on the rise. Still, very plausible that Nebraska can get a victory.

P.S. Your Sagarin example defeats your intended argument. Sagarin is an ELO method, a popular competitive ranking system but one that still relies on win-loss information with a SOS filter (essentially what ELO is). Because of this, his final rankings has Wisconsin behind all P5 one and two loss teams and one spot ahead of a four loss Auburn.

There's also no reason Indiana can't win the West.

I can think of one.

 

[Mierin]

I can think of one.

Uh, typo.

I demand you delete that part of your post .

 

[brophog]

Uh, typo.

I demand you delete that part of your post .

Your point was important though. It's the most trivial argument to suggest a possibility exists solely because it's in the realm of possible outcomes.

 

[Redux]

Even though they far surpassed my expectations, I'm not sold on Wisconsin.  I feel like they get by in most games on reputation alone.  The other teams in the West go in expecting to lose therefore they do.  They won 13 games against a weak schedule and we hung with them until the inevitable implosion.  US!  In 2017!  Quite possibly the poorest coached team in 100 years in school history!  Expecting a regress is what I'm banking on.

 

[brophog]

 Expecting a regress is what I'm banking on.

I'm not, and here's why: 

YPP DIFFERENCE BY YEAR FOR WISCONSIN

2017 1.7 ypp

2016 0.6 ypp

2015 0.9 ypp

2014 1.9 ypp

(purely for comparison Nebraska has been running even to negative)

Wisconsin is becoming very consistent and very legit. Do they have a ceiling lower than others, probably so, and I think if they had some real divisional competition that would show more. They're not in that class of teams that scares me, but they are in the class that deserves massive respect.

 

[Redux]

They aren't becoming consistent, they've been consistent over roughly 4 coaches now.  It's a system, it works in spite of itself almost.

That said, with a tougher slate of games this year and the lofty expectations from last year, I could easily see them falling back to the 8 win department this season.  I have no numbers to back this up, just gut feeling.  We probably don't beat them, but others will.  Their win over highly overrated Miami means more to some.

 

[brophog]

They aren't becoming consistent, they've been consistent over rpughly 4 coaches now.  It's a system, it works in spite of itself almost.

I disagree. I think they were consistent and are taking it a step up to very consistent.

 

[Redux]

So you think they're going to win another 12 or 13 games?

 

[brophog]

So you think they're going to win another 12 or 13 games?

I wouldn't say that, I look at wins mostly as a reflector to performance. Just so much statistical noise looking at wins. I would say, barring injuries to Hornibrook and Taylor, this is their best offense during our time in the Big Ten. The defense needs to reload, that's their big question mark, but they operate in the Big Ten, land of no offense. You don't need the worlds best defense to win a lot of games in this conference, especially if you can shorten games.

They have the potential for a very high win total, though. It's a tougher schedule, yes, but it's still the Big Ten West. Rutgers is still Rutgers, and while I think Michigan is on the up, many don't. Penn St is a game that tells us a lot about Wisconsin.

 

[MichiganDad3]

There are plenty of reasons to believe Nebraska could win the west. Frost turned a 0-12 football team with, presumably, near 0-12 talent into an undefeated team that was CFP level in two years. Did UCF get top recruiting classes? No. Frost was able to maximize existing talent and plug gaps where needed. Nebraksa’s base talent level is MUCH higher than UCF’s, even last year I might argue. There is reason to believe that he could take that talent, supplement with new recruits, and have this team competing in the weaker half of the B1G in year one. The schedule isn’t easy, but the division may not prove to be daunting either. 

The disadvantage for the Huskers is that many defensive players learned from both Banker and Diaco. It will take a lot of work to make them forget the things they have been taught.

 

[Redux]

I wouldn't say that, I look at wins mostly as a reflector to performance. Just so much statistical noise looking at wins. I would say, barring injuries to Hornibrook and Taylor, this is their best offense during our time in the Big Ten. The defense needs to reload, that's their big question mark, but they operate in the Big Ten, land of no offense. You don't need the worlds best defense to win a lot of games in this conference, especially if you can shorten games.

They have the potential for a very high win total, though. It's a tougher schedule, yes, but it's still the Big Ten West. Rutgers is still Rutgers, and while I think Michigan is on the up, many don't. Penn St is a game that tells us a lot about Wisconsin.

But unless they do win 12 you can't consider them very consistent.  Personally I consider them consistent regardless.

I guess I'm the other way.  Even if their offense is the best they've had in years, Defense has always been their foundation.  If a team like Nebraska or Northwestern starts clicking offensively and they take a hit like Hornibrook going down it's really gonna hurt.

 

[dutch91701]

The disadvantage for the Huskers is that many defensive players learned from both Banker and Diaco. It will take a lot of work to make them forget the things they have been taught.

I’d agree with this. A change in system can have a big effect though. I’m not calling for any of the guys to have a Suh-like transformation next year, but really anything resembling aptitude would represent a marked improvement. 

 

[Redux]

I’d agree with this. A change in system can have a big effect though. I’m not calling for any of the guys to have a Suh-like transformation next year, but really anything resembling aptitude would represent a marked improvement. 

Considering what Bo was able to do with Callahan players, it's not crazy to think something mildly simliar could happen this fall.

 

[brophog]

I guess I'm the other way.  Even if their offense is the best they've had in years, Defense has always been their foundation.  If a team like Nebraska or Northwestern starts clicking offensively and they take a hit like Hornibrook going down it's really gonna hurt.

If the opposing offense was clicking the defense likely wasn't getting it done, anyhow. If you're QB is hurt, you'd like a dominant rushing attack to offset.

I guess what I'm wondering in our thought process on why Wisconsin is regressing is what is it implicit to this Wisconsin team that suggests that. We've discussed mostly universal things. Teams with win totals at either extreme having odds of regressing to the mean by virtue of the large number of possible outcomes being as such and the general randomness of the game (ie, Vegas doesn't predict teams to win 13 games). An experienced QB getting hurt likely has an effect on most top teams, even if they're strong elsewhere. Etcetera.

One thing that could hurt is their lack of returning starters on defense (though they do have some experience). That doesn't mean they will have a bad defense, nor does it guarantee it's worse even, just that history suggests returning starters is a decent predictor of such. For this to be a significant weakness though, opposing offenses must do better, and fortunately for Wisconsin every division opponent except Iowa has issues at QB. It's not a bad year to break in defensive players.

 

[brophog]

The disadvantage for the Huskers is that many defensive players learned from both Banker and Diaco. It will take a lot of work to make them forget the things they have been taught.

I saw those teams, I challenge the notion they were taught anything.