Pelini's Best Wins and Worst Losses

[TGHusker]

IMO, the Washington and K State games in 2010 were Bo's best wins being we crushed both opponents and both were nationally televised. Bo's worst loss to me is last years B1G championship because of the exact opposite reasons but we lost to a whole different level..to the 3rd best team in the division.

edit: Both wins were on the road also

I would add the "Nebraska is Back" bowl game against a good Arizona team - 33-0 win. That set us up for greater things but it seems it went down hill from there. Maybe "pride comes before a fall". Wisc CCG was the worse by far for sooooo many reasons.

 

[TGHusker]

I think the loss to Washington was his worst, as it changed the perspective of what we expected. Not prepared, not ready in anyway for what we faced. A team we had beaten before, took for granted. Then you have Wisconsin, same deal. It started the trend of not playing up to where we fans thought we should.

Perhaps that game is to Bo as the Colo loss was to Frank - the shell started to crack.

 

[Hooked on Huskers]

Tremendous and hard work product! Good stuff. BBB, how many hours (myself, days!) to produce the final product? And I'm very curious about Sagarin's top secret formula. Myself, who gives a crap about Harris, AP, numerous computer based ratings, etc. except Sagarin. I religiously followed Sagarin ratings, ELO and Predictor column week-by-week for the past 10 years.

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

Tremendous and hard work product! Good stuff. BBB, how much hours (myself, days!) to produce the final product? And I'm very curious about Sagarin's top secret formula. Myself, who gives a crap about Harris, AP, numerous computer based ratings, etc. except Sagarin. I religiously followed Sagarin ratings, ELO and Predictor column week-by-week for the past 10 years.

Took about an hour or so.

 

[AFhusker]

Sagarin's rankings of our Strength of Schedule since 2004:

2004 - 55

2005 - 36

2006 - 51

2007 - 4

2008 - 38

2009 - 52

2010 - 39

2011 - 26

2012 - 20

Thanks for posting that, I knew that 2007 was one of our toughest schedules we have ever played as there were 10 bowl teams on it, but geez talk about bad luck or just bad timing for Bill with that being his 4th year and the Senior class was basically the 5 guys that Frank left him and about 7 last minute guys just to bring bodies into the program. Of course that doesn't absolve him from the crappy results, but for as much crap as that staff continues to get for that record, Bo has never had a schedule in the same stratosphere as that one. And he probably won't as we are in a much crapier conference now. And our defense looks just as bad if not worse by getting trunkmonkeyed by lesser teams on a weekly basis.

 

[AFhusker]

Tremendous and hard work product! Good stuff. BBB, how much hours (myself, days!) to produce the final product? And I'm very curious about Sagarin's top secret formula. Myself, who gives a crap about Harris, AP, numerous computer based ratings, etc. except Sagarin. I religiously followed Sagarin ratings, ELO and Predictor column week-by-week for the past 10 years.

Took about an hour or so.

Thanks for posting that too, it took a lot of work to do it. I was going to do it last weekend, but laziness and beer got in the way.

 

[Count 'Bility]

Sagarin's rankings of our Strength of Schedule since 2004:

2004 - 55

2005 - 36

2006 - 51

2007 - 4

2008 - 38

2009 - 52

2010 - 39

2011 - 26

2012 - 20

Thanks for posting that, I knew that 2007 was one of our toughest schedules we have ever played as there were 10 bowl teams on it, but geez talk about bad luck or just bad timing for Bill with that being his 4th year and the Senior class was basically the 5 guys that Frank left him and about 7 last minute guys just to bring bodies into the program. Of course that doesn't absolve him from the crappy results, but for as much crap as that staff continues to get for that record, Bo has never had a schedule in the same stratosphere as that one. And he probably won't as we are in a much crapier conference now. And our defense looks just as bad if not worse by getting trunkmonkeyed by lesser teams on a weekly basis.

The 2007 win/loss record is the least bit of the worries of those that still give that staff crap to this day.

 

[AFhusker]

Sagarin's rankings of our Strength of Schedule since 2004:

2004 - 55

2005 - 36

2006 - 51

2007 - 4

2008 - 38

2009 - 52

2010 - 39

2011 - 26

2012 - 20

Thanks for posting that, I knew that 2007 was one of our toughest schedules we have ever played as there were 10 bowl teams on it, but geez talk about bad luck or just bad timing for Bill with that being his 4th year and the Senior class was basically the 5 guys that Frank left him and about 7 last minute guys just to bring bodies into the program. Of course that doesn't absolve him from the crappy results, but for as much crap as that staff continues to get for that record, Bo has never had a schedule in the same stratosphere as that one. And he probably won't as we are in a much crapier conference now. And our defense looks just as bad if not worse by getting trunkmonkeyed by lesser teams on a weekly basis.

The 2007 win/loss record is the least bit of the worries of those that still give that staff crap to this day.

Just asking, if it wasn't the 5-7 record, then what was the reason?

 

[knapplc]

I was going to do it last weekend, but laziness and beer got in the way.

Said every adult male, ever.

 

[Count 'Bility]

Sagarin's rankings of our Strength of Schedule since 2004:

2004 - 55

2005 - 36

2006 - 51

2007 - 4

2008 - 38

2009 - 52

2010 - 39

2011 - 26

2012 - 20

Thanks for posting that, I knew that 2007 was one of our toughest schedules we have ever played as there were 10 bowl teams on it, but geez talk about bad luck or just bad timing for Bill with that being his 4th year and the Senior class was basically the 5 guys that Frank left him and about 7 last minute guys just to bring bodies into the program. Of course that doesn't absolve him from the crappy results, but for as much crap as that staff continues to get for that record, Bo has never had a schedule in the same stratosphere as that one. And he probably won't as we are in a much crapier conference now. And our defense looks just as bad if not worse by getting trunkmonkeyed by lesser teams on a weekly basis.

The 2007 win/loss record is the least bit of the worries of those that still give that staff crap to this day.

Just asking, if it wasn't the 5-7 record, then what was the reason?

Bill Callahan and Steve Pederson-though unintentional-ruined our program in aspects well beyond wins and losses. If you dont know that, it's not worth discussing with you.

 

[AFhusker]

Sagarin's rankings of our Strength of Schedule since 2004:

2004 - 55

2005 - 36

2006 - 51

2007 - 4

2008 - 38

2009 - 52

2010 - 39

2011 - 26

2012 - 20

Thanks for posting that, I knew that 2007 was one of our toughest schedules we have ever played as there were 10 bowl teams on it, but geez talk about bad luck or just bad timing for Bill with that being his 4th year and the Senior class was basically the 5 guys that Frank left him and about 7 last minute guys just to bring bodies into the program. Of course that doesn't absolve him from the crappy results, but for as much crap as that staff continues to get for that record, Bo has never had a schedule in the same stratosphere as that one. And he probably won't as we are in a much crapier conference now. And our defense looks just as bad if not worse by getting trunkmonkeyed by lesser teams on a weekly basis.

The 2007 win/loss record is the least bit of the worries of those that still give that staff crap to this day.

Just asking, if it wasn't the 5-7 record, then what was the reason?

Bill Callahan and Steve Pederson-though unintentional-ruined our program in aspects well beyond wins and losses. If you dont know that, it's not worth discussing with you.

The program was already in shambles when Bill took over. He was crazy to take this job with the total lack of talent that the 2004 team had. That is why he had to recruit so many JUCO's becasue there was nobody ready to play in front of them. The problem was that you can't build your team on JUCO's becasue most of them are only here for two years, which lead to what happened in 2007.

I am willing to bet that most of what you blame Bill for was put in the tolilet by Frank the tank. A lot of NU fans are either too blind or dumb to see it.

But I will agree with you that SP was and still is an idiot. But once again he was a TO hire, so that isn't suprising.

 

[lo country]

The scary thing for me, is the "9 win seasons" have come by beating non top 25 teams. IIRC, there were 2-3 seasons that a win vs a ranked team got us in. That is pretty bad IMO. Something needs to change.

I saw that Barrett Ruud said Bo is moving to a "gap control" D that he brought in 2003. Each guy has a gap. It pulls a safety up to help with the run, but allows the D to attack.

Someone with more knowledge, please feel free to further explain.

Great stats above as well. Thx for posting all that. Like to see the wins vs the ranked guys.

 

[AFhusker]

The scary thing for me, is the "9 win seasons" have come by beating non top 25 teams. IIRC, there were 2-3 seasons that a win vs a ranked team got us in. That is pretty bad IMO. Something needs to change.

I saw that Barrett Ruud said Bo is moving to a "gap control" D that he brought in 2003. Each guy has a gap. It pulls a safety up to help with the run, but allows the D to attack.

Someone with more knowledge, please feel free to further explain.

Great stats above as well. Thx for posting all that. Like to see the wins vs the ranked guys.

It sounds like one gap responsibilty in which the DL doen't have to worry about just holding up the OL and reacting to what is happening (two gap). The one gap is more high risk, high reward as if one guy misses his assignment, then there will be big plays. But we are already giving up big plays playing the two gap defense. At least in the one gap you try to get pressure on the offense and hopefully that will turn into more turnovers. It's more of the let the guys just play and stop thinking so much stuff that has been mentioned before.

I believe that we used this type of defense when we played at tOSU and had a lot of success with it until Miller had that long run down to the five yard line. Then Bo decided to go to the two gap and try to contain Miller and we all know how that worked out.

 

[JJ Husker]

So that's that. I'm trying to put to bed the notion that the teams we beat aren't that good, and the teams we suffer blow out losses to aren't that good.

BBBXII-

Nice compilation of information. Thanks for doing that and putting it out here for us to discuss.

Having said that, I'm not real sure your analysis supports putting to bed the notion that the teams we beat aren't that good or the teams we suffer blowout losses to aren't that good. I will agree that the trend seems to be getting slightly better in some ways but also seemingly very slowly. This is what I took away from your list of games and how I prefer to look at it;

Our record 2008 thru 2012 (all 5 years) versus-

Top 10 teams 0-8

Top 15 teams 1-10

Top 20 teams 5-13

Top 25 teams 7-15

Our record 2011 & 2012 (last 2 yrs only) versus-

Top 10 teams 0-3

Top 15 teams 0-5

Top 20 teams 2-5

Top 25 teams 4-6

I would agree that our overall strength of schedule has been tougher these past 2 seasons, as Knapp's posting shows. But the quality wins against top ranked teams are still noticeably lacking. Sorry but I won't buy into the notion that we should be happy treading water with teams ranked 25 to 30th. Facts are facts and under Pelini we are 0-8 vs top 10, 1-10 vs top 15 and nothing has changed in that regard in the past 2 seasons. Having a losing record, 7-15, against top 25 teams is not and never will be acceptable for Nebraska. Sure I would like to consistently be beating top 10 teams but I also realize that is not realistic. But we should be running at or above .500 in the Top 15 to Top 20 range and we have not and that trend has not shown improvement.

Where do I feel we should be? (and this IS taking into account where we were beginning 2008)

Top 10 teams 2-6 or 3-5

Top 15 teams 4-7 or 5-6

Top 20 teams 9-9 or 10-8

top 25 teams 12-10 or 13-9

Those would be my expectations and I don't feel they are unreasonable at all. Pelini is sorely lacking a win, any win against a top 10 team and the only one in the top 15 would be Okie St. back in 2010. That is unacceptable for Nebraska football imo.

The other stat that gets me and most Husker fans going would be the blowout losses. Defining a blowout is subjective but, for the sake of argument, I have placed it at a point differential larger than 14. I could've gone with 17 but that only makes a one game difference. How have we done in that regard?

Losses by more than 14 points-

3 to teams in the top 10

5 to teams in the top 15

7 to teams in the top 20

9 to teams in the top 25

Conversely, we have only beaten one top 25 team by more than 14 points (2011 Mich St #18 by 21 points).

Sorry, but we are not in a good place and do not appear to be getting any closer to one.

 

[irafreak]

His best win so far was against OU a few years back. His worst loss by far was to Iowa State a few years back especially considering it was at home and Iowa State was down to their second string QB and I believe third string RB.

I'll agree with the Iowa State game just because it was such an embarrasment to lose to a team playing its backup qb and 3rd tailback with so many fumbles at home...fluke or not it was ugly. Now the worst beating was wisconsin last year...maybe OU 08 just because that game was over midway through the first quarter...