PreSeason AP Poll

I think that it's honestly borderline ridiculous to think that Wisconsin is actually the #4 team in the country.

Ohio State is in that "Top Tier" of teams. I really don't think Wisconsin is. 

At any rate, it'll be great if they're ranked in the Top 5 in Madison.

 
They've earned it I think. They're 24-3 the last two years, with two NY6 bowl wins and no loss to a team that wasn't top 10, and no loss by more than a score.

They'll stumble from that position, probably, but preseason rankings (despite being completely meaningless) are built on past performance more than anything else. 

 
For as hard as our schedule is, Michigan's is harder.  5 top 12 teams, plus Nebraska and Northwestern.   Sheesh.  

Also of note, we could legitimately face 4 top-10 teams this year.  

 
Landlord said:
They'll stumble from that position, probably, but preseason rankings (despite being completely meaningless) are built on past performance more than anything else. 
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Definitely agree on the parameters that go into the ranking. But they benefited quite a bit from a pretty weak schedule last season.

This year's is a bit tougher for them, but that all changes in 2019 when they'll run the gamut of playing Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State.

At any rate...

 


Many people make quite a big deal over the difference in conferences playing 8 conference games vs. 9 conference games as it correlates to making the playoff.  But I don't think that is as big of a deal as what else teams are doing with their schedule, as illustrated here.  Noting which conferences have made the playoff sorted for how many conference games they play is skewed by a small sample size that is further skewed by Alabama happening to be in a conference that plays 8 and the ACC being so top-heavy that the Clemson/Florida State winner has a fairly easy path.  If Alabama was in the B1G or Big XII, there wouldn't be nearly as much talk of playing fewer conference games getting you in the playoff.

That being said, the relative strength of schedule definitely plays a part but it has as much to do with what teams are doing outside of the conference as how many conference games they play.

  • The B1G is not only playing 9 conference games but most of the conference is also playing a P5 non-con game
  • The SEC not only plays the fewest P5 games but also the most FCS games
  • For all the talk about how tough the SEC West is, Alabama had the 27th toughest schedule last year, Arkansas was #20 (and went 4-8), A&M was #44,  LSU was #54, Miss St was #59,  and Ole Miss was #60.  Only Auburn really had a tough schedule at #3 but they got a bump from playing Georgia a second time in the SEC CCG, had Clemson on the schedule and played UCF in the bowl game.  Average #38
  • Conversely, the less-than-stellar B1G West had Iowa at #5, Nebraska at #9, Purdue at #41, Illinois at #43, Wisconsin at #47, Northwestern at #50, Minnesota at #53.  Average #35.
  • So teams playing in one of the worst divisions in the country had - on average - tougher schedules than teams playing in supposedly the best division.
  • Narratives are fun
 
Nice work, Mav. Only thing I'd add is the number of road vs neutral games played in the SEC and relative distance from home. Alabama, for instance, generally plays their big OOC game at a neutral site in the south rather than home and home like we see in the Big Ten.

 
brophog said:
Nice work, Mav. Only thing I'd add is the number of road vs neutral games played in the SEC and relative distance from home. Alabama, for instance, generally plays their big OOC game at a neutral site in the south rather than home and home like we see in the Big Ten.
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I believe it's been a long time since Alabama has played a regular season game outside the SEC foot print.  They refuse to go to another P5 home stadium in an OOC game.  So, they basically just sit in the SEC foot print.

 
BigRedBuster said:
I believe it's been a long time since Alabama has played a regular season game outside the SEC foot print.  They refuse to go to another P5 home stadium in an OOC game.  So, they basically just sit in the SEC foot print.
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I believe Penn St in 2011 was the last true non-con road game that they had, and I'm not sure when the last time before that was.

 
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