QB Run Game: the Myth of the Frost Offense

In Frosts offense which is pretty much the same as Chip Kelly's the most important thing is accuracy. I was at a clininc with Chip speaking and he said the most important thing in this offense for the qb is accuracy. It lets the receiver run in open space for big plays. 

There is different types of this offense but go back and watch oregon films and watch Marriota yes he can run. But most importantly he threw to the right spots so receivers ran to open space.

 
RedDenver said:
Even if you went and counted all the times that happened, it wouldn't significantly change the ypc compared to the ypa.
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Okay.

BigRedBuster said:
Do you then also take away yards and count a run when it’s pitched 3 yards behind the line?  Happens way more than 10 yards past it. 
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I'm not sure.  

The point was Milton did more running than the 8 rushes per game would indicate.

 
I think the best evidence we have for Frost's goal is that Martinez is the QB he chose to go after.

He could've gone after a pocket passer who can run when needed, but he chose to go after a dual threat.

I don't know much about Milton but he was listed as a dual threat QB on rivals. As was Vedral, but using him as an example doesn't really work because part of that had to be due to Frost knowing his family.

 
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The Dude said:
He did until he pitched it.  Which was sometimes like 10 yards down field.
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Just one way that Milton's athleticism comes into play without showing-up on the stats-line. It is overly-simplistic to just look at plays where he ended-up with the ball. Every play that requires running ability or the qb being a run-threat has to be looked at.  Plus how often was he able to buy time when a slower qb would have had to ditch or take the sack? Also have to consider how MM being a threat affects how the defense accounts for him, that opens-up things up.

It's very true that we don't need a gamebreaker at qb and passing is the most important aspect. But it's not true that anyone with just a modicum of mobility will thrive in this scheme, not against the defenses we'll be facing next year.  On the positive side POB did tote the rock in high school to good effect, he's got OK speed and he's big enough to give or take a hit. Gebbia showed some quickness in the Spring game and he has the work-ethic to make the most of himself, could use some good weight on him. Andrew Bunch is a good fit for this scheme. I think it's telling that we didn't jump all over Terry Wilson. Ya we're likely getting Martinez but I don't see Frost being all-in on starting a true frosh next season. I think he must see talent he can roll with already on the roster. 

 
Danimal said:
Just one way that Milton's athleticism comes into play without showing-up on the stats-line. It is overly-simplistic to just look at plays where he ended-up with the ball. Every play that requires running ability or the qb being a run-threat has to be looked at.  Plus how often was he able to buy time when a slower qb would have had to ditch or take the sack? Also have to consider how MM being a threat affects how the defense accounts for him, that opens-up things up.

It's very true that we don't need a gamebreaker at qb and passing is the most important aspect. But it's not true that anyone with just a modicum of mobility will thrive in this scheme, not against the defenses we'll be facing next year.  On the positive side POB did tote the rock in high school to good effect, he's got OK speed and he's big enough to give or take a hit. Gebbia showed some quickness in the Spring game and he has the work-ethic to make the most of himself, could use some good weight on him. Andrew Bunch is a good fit for this scheme. I think it's telling that we didn't jump all over Terry Wilson. Ya we're likely getting Martinez but I don't see Frost being all-in on starting a true frosh next season. I think he must see talent he can roll with already on the roster. 
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Or Frost thinks his scheme is flexible enough for a range of talents at QB.

 
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Cdog923 said:
I've noticed quite a bit in discussions on both what the offense next year will look like and in recruiting that it's a certainty that Frost needs a "run-first" QB to make his offense work at a high level. Look at the stats, though, and that seems to be a bit of a fallacy. For comparison's sake, let's look at the rushing attempts and completion percentage of QBs at Oregon and UCF during Frost's tenure at both places, and how that might affect how he wants his QB room to look at Nebraska. 

Frost as WR coach:

2009: Jeremiah Masoli - 12 games/121 attempts (10 att/game) (58% completion)

2010: Darron Thomas - 12 games/93 att (7 att/g) (61.5%)

2011: Darron Thomas - 13 games/56 att (4 att/g) (62.2%)

2012: Marcus Mariota - 13 games/106 att (8 att/g) (68.5%)

Frost as OC: 

2013: Marcus Mariota - 13 games/96 att (7 att/g) (63.5%)

2014: Marcus Mariota - 15 games/135 att (9 att/g) (68.3%)

2015: Vernon Adams - 10 games/83 att (8 att/g) (64.9%)

           Jeff Locke - 5 games/61 att (12 att/g) (61.6%)

Frost as HC: 

2016: McKenzie Milton - 10 games/100 att (10 att/g) (57.7%)

2017: McKenzie Milton - 12 games/93 att (8 att/g) (69.2%)

On average, offenses that Frost has been involved with (or that have inspired his offense, if you will) have ran the QB around 8 times a game (or 2 times per quarter), with a completion percentage hovering in the mid 60s. Compare and contrast that with QBs that we have seen at Nebraska:

Tommy Armstrong - 45 games/423 att (9.4 att/g) (53.3%)

Taylor Martinez - 44 games/585 att (13 att/g) (59.8%)

Joe Ganz - 24 games/115 att (5 att/g) (65.1%) 

                  - 2008: 12 games/92 att (7 att/g) (68%)

Jammal Lord - 39 games/516 att (13 att/g) (48%)

Eric Crouch - 43 games/648 att (15 att/g) (51.5%)

Scott Frost - 24 games/302 att (13 att/g) (53.5%)

Tommie Frazier - 35 games/342 att (10 att/g) (49.5%)

My conclusion is this: I don't believe that Frost's offense absolutely needs a Taylor Martinez to be successful; I think it needs a Joe Ganz. Put someone back there with a completion percentage in the 60s while also being able to run the zone read/designed run an average of one to two times a quarter. I think that both Gebbia and POB can do this, should they be called upon next year.
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Cdog923, for the win! Great post! 

The stats really put it all in perspective.  I didnt read all of the responses, but I certainly want to put my 2 cents in : ) 

POB did not look bad running the ball, but it will be interested to see what happens with Adrian Martinez.  The only concern with Gebbia is his body type for running the ball 8-10 times a game.  I guess time will tell.  I just hope there is a good competition in the spring, thats what will make that position better.  

Frosts offense is an option offense that attacks the safeties. Safeties have to fit in the run game and also account for deep threats in the pass game, this is why "option" football still exists.  Option football does not mean running your QB 15-20 times a game.  The mere threat of the option can manipulate the defense and turn in to big plays for the offense.  A safety steps down to fit on the zone read, and a slot WR gets in behind him and there is your 70 yard TD.  You still have to run the ball well and attack all the zones.  This scheme will take pressure off of the O line as well. 

 
I'm excited to see what kind of offense we run next year, and I think there's already a decent toolbag for Frost to work with.

But the Nebraska defense has been in a freefall for seven seasons now, and it's hard for any quarterback to look good if his defense is giving up 35 points a game. 

 
Guy Chamberlin said:
I'm excited to see what kind of offense we run next year, and I think there's already a decent toolbag for Frost to work with.

But the Nebraska defense has been in a freefall for seven seasons now, and it's hard for any quarterback to look good if his defense is giving up 35 points a game. 
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I think the defense will be okay assuming they’re taught fundamentals, and what a blitz is.

 
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Guy Chamberlin said:
I'm excited to see what kind of offense we run next year, and I think there's already a decent toolbag for Frost to work with.

But the Nebraska defense has been in a freefall for seven seasons now, and it's hard for any quarterback to look good if his defense is giving up 35 points a game. 
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I thought Corey McKeon graduated like, 10 years ago?

 
BigRedBuster said:
Good post.

Decision making, accurate passing and being able to distribute the ball to the right playmakers is still way more important than having a QB that can out run everyone on the field.

The offense's design opens up space for many of the QB runs.  They don't need to be another RB.  I agree, the QB needs to be able to make a defense pay for not respecting what he can do with his legs.  BUT....again...that doesn't take a Tmart or Crouch type of a player.

On a completely different thought looking at these.  I always laugh/roll my eyes when fans say that Solich way over used the QB run and that was what was wrong with his offenses.  Look at the rushing attempts of Frost, Crouch and Lord.  Lord is the same as Frost and Crouch only ran two more times per game.

One of the biggest myths in Husker Nation.  That trend was started before Solich took over as HC and play calling.
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Considering two of the three QBs you list were coached by Solich, how did those three QBs rushing attempts per game compare to Frazier?  Crouch and Lord ran the ball more because they didn't have the studs at RB behind them.  From the stats I've found, it would appear the QB run trend did escalate when Solich took over rather than before.  In Frost's two years here, he averaged 12.5 carries per game.  Crouch averaged 15 carries per game.  Lord averaged 17.25 carries per game.  Frazier averaged 9.8 carries per game.  Steve Taylor averaged 13 carries per game.  We can argue that 10-13 carries per game isn't much of a difference from 15-18 carries per game, but it is a decent percentage jump. 

From the information  

 
It's all about getting the QB that can pull the ball in the zone read at the right time (and having the right play call) to take advantage of what the defense gives them. When the defense is set to stop x, exploit y with a play that looks like x but is complete opposite. Not different from a lot of offenses, but when you spread out with speed on the field - big plays result.

I don't think SF ran a high number of only qb run plays. In that sense, so I do think all QBs on the roster outside of Lee can have success with their 10 or less runs a game. 

Spring is going to be fun. I'll be interested how soon the starter is announced in the fall. 

 
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