I'm about 95 percent sure that Martinez is going to be our starter in the fall. He has the most experience of the quarterbacks, we have heard this offense fits him better than any other quarterback and when healthy he is the most athletic quarterback we have, at least in my opinion.
A lot can happen between now and September, and I know some of you have been proponents of the scenario where Carnes overtakes Martinez similarly to the way Martinez overtook Lee. The two situations were very different. Lee was coming off of a significant surgery and was not as athletically gifted as Martinez. Also, I think the coaches valued an athletic Martinez that will make freshman mistakes over a not-so-athletic Lee that doesn't really have game changing potential the way Martinez does.
The only way Carnes overtakes Martinez is in the mental side of the game. Athletically speaking, and when healthy, Martinez has Carnes beat. Martinez isn't the world's greatest passer, neither is Carnes, but Carnes won't overtake Martinez simply because he throws a better ball. Furthermore I'd think Martinez would really have to have nagging injury issues for Carnes to overtake him.
And before any of that can even take place Carnes would still have to pass a more experienced guy in Green. Green hasn't panned out the way Nebraska fans hoped, but he's still probably got a leg up on Carnes because of his experience. Carnes overtaking Green for the #2 spot is a far more likely scenario right now over Carnes being the #1.
I'm thinking the coaches feel that a healthy Martinez, in an offense tailored to fit his abilities, is ahead of a redshirt freshman who hasn't played a snap of division one football.
You say --- "The only way Carnes overtakes Martinez is in the mental side of the game." I say --- on what basis do we know this? Carnes has never seen the field and how much of TMart's problems are "mental"? Who knows?
You say --- "Athletically speaking, and when healthy, Martinez has Carnes beat." I say --- who knows Carnes has not played. What little we have seen shows he is athletic, but...
You say --- "Martinez isn't the world's greatest passer, neither is Carnes" --- I say --- Carnes is much better a passer --- even though we have seen little, we have seen enough, he is a better passer.
You say --- "but Carnes won't overtake Martinez simply because he throws a better ball." I say --- how do you know?
You say --- "Furthermore I'd think Martinez would really have to have nagging injury issues for Carnes to overtake him." I say --- I agree... but he has had nagging injuries, he seems still to have nagging injuries, and the likelihood is high (though not certain) that he will still have nagging injuries when the season starts. Thus, it will not at all be unlikely to see Carnes in a as a QB. That said....
I'd say that a healthy/semi-healthy TMart almost certainly starts the season and, if he stays healthy/semi-healthy he'll have a 1/2 season to produce ... if he is still healthy/semi-healthy at mid season but does not produce, expect to see Carnes. If he remains healthy/semi-healthy and produces, he continues as starter. Final option is that his nagging injuries (or new injuries, if inflicted with such) places Carnes at the helm early rather than later.
In any event, Carnes is a very, very important person on this team. He is next in line and the possibility that TMart stays hurt and/or does not produce is pretty high... we need a developed #2 because he will be precariously close to #1.