Quarterback

[Vizsla1]

^ If John McClaine is onboard- count me in. I probably wrote it before:  Darlington I probably best QB (on campus) to run a "total Frost" offense... but as was mentioned- HC SF will run an offensive with what he has vs forcing something we are not prepared for (a la Callahan, Riley)..

 

[NWHuskerfan]

Especially the deep ball. That's what makes Milton so effective. He's an ok runner, but nothing special. Not big enough to bull people, not fast enough to outrun defenders, and not quick enough to elude. His runs, however, are very effective because he's doing it against a numerical advantage and that comes partly from having to respect his deep ball.

That's this offense, putting a defense into numerical disadvantages. With an accurate passer that can run even a little, it's very difficult to stop. Milton has a very good completion rate for how often they throw deep balls.

2nd in yards per attempt, 2nd in completion percentage, 2nd in QB Rating. All to Baker Mayfield.

That's elite. The vast improvement he made from year 1 to year 2 has to have any potential QB salivating. 

Also plays against nobody.

 

[Landlord]

You guys have any clue how much I really care if I used the wrong Tommy or Tommie?

Here's a hint....it's right up there with how much I care if our uniforms have stripes on the pants or not.

 

[ColoradoHusk]

It's just one indicator but it's a good one. I'm not sure how the statistic itself is flawed.

It doesn't matter what offense you're playing in a sub 50% completion percentage is horrible. In the offense Tommie ran most of his passes were off play action and there was almost always a receiver/TE running free. That should have helped his completion percentage but it didn't really. He was not a great passer and his stats bear that out. He was not even a "good" passer. In fact, he's a perfect example of most dual threat QBs being a bigger threat as either a runner or a passer. He was an excellent runner and a sub-par passer. 

I am not saying Tommie was a great passer, I just think that using completion percentage doesn't tell the entire story.  I especially get annoyed with it when people try to use completion percentage as a basis for accuracy.  It's one measure, but it's not perfect.

EDIT:  Osborne has said numerous times that he treated option plays as a way to get big plays, and treated them much like the forward pass.  What if we included Frazier's successful pitches on options as a completed pass?  I am sure that would really boost his completion percentage.

 

[RedDenver]

I am not saying Tommie was a great passer, I just think that using completion percentage doesn't tell the entire story.  I especially get annoyed with it when people try to use completion percentage as a basis for accuracy.  It's one measure, but it's not perfect.

Of coursed it's not perfect, but completion percentage can still be used as a basis for accuracy. I'm not even going to disagree with your conclusion, but if you're going to say it doesn't tell the entire story, then cite evidence that helps tell more of the story.

 

[ColoradoHusk]

Of coursed it's not perfect, but completion percentage can still be used as a basis for accuracy. I'm not even going to disagree with your conclusion, but if you're going to say it doesn't tell the entire story, then cite evidence that helps tell more of the story.

I think Frazier's completion % was negatively impacted by small receivers, TE's who were glorified offensive linemen, and an offense that wasn't designed to be great at the passing game.

I agree that there were a lot of passes attempted that were wide open play action passes, and that Frazier wasn't a "great" passer.  I just think it's lazy for people to point to completion % as the main point when commenting on a player's passing ability.  I will stop commenting on it.

 

[ColoradoHusk]

We can't include those because they weren't forward passes. That would be kinda ridiculous don't you think?

But why is a "pass" that's 1 yard forward treated it differently than a "pass that's 1 yard backwards"?  I understand that's the definition of a forward pass, but I am just saying completion % is a lazy stat to show effectiveness as a passer.

 

[RedDenver]

I think Frazier's completion % was negatively impacted by small receivers, TE's who were glorified offensive linemen, and an offense that wasn't designed to be great at the passing game.

I agree that there were a lot of passes attempted that were wide open play action passes, and that Frazier wasn't a "great" passer.  I just think it's lazy for people to point to completion % as the main point when commenting on a player's passing ability.  I will stop commenting on it.

I don't think you have to stop commenting on it, but IMO it's more effective to add evidence/opinion to the discussion (exactly like you just did) instead of trying to dissuade from using completion percentage.

 

[ColoradoHusk]

I know I said I was going to stop commenting on it, but I wanted to do some additional research in the 1990s and completion % of the All-American QB's from each year.  Here is what I found.

1990 - Ty Detmer - 64%

1991 - Ty Detmer - 62%

1992 - Gino Torretta - 56%

1993 - Charlie Ward - 70% (what an amazing year by Ward)

1994 - Kerry Collins - 67% (much higher than his career # of 56%)

1995 - Tommie Frazier - 56%

1996 - Danny Wuerrfel - 58%

1997 - Peyton Manning - 60%

1998 - Cade McNown - 58% & Tim Couch - 72% (Couch was the first prolific spread QB)

1999 - Joe Hamilton - 66%

So, as you will see, in Frazier's best year of 1995, his passing % is comparable to 3 other All-American QB's (Torretta, Wuerrel, and McNown) who were thought of as pocket passers.  Frazier isn't even significantly lower than Peyton Manning.

Was Frazier's passing his best trait, absolutely not.  But his passing completion % wasn't terrible in his best year, especially considering the threat he was running the ball.  It's also difficult to look at stats from the early to mid 90s and compare them to today's offenses.  It's just an apples to oranges comparison.

 

[ColoradoHusk]

No it isn't. It's the one stat that shows the accuracy of a quarterback and accuracy is a HUGE part of the success of any passing attack regardless if it's in a pro-style system or a run heavy system.

As far as why is a 1 yard forward pass treated differently than a backwards or lateral pitch to your running back, well, that's a question for those who make the rules.

I would argue that completion % shows the effectiveness of an offense to get the ball into the hands of the skill players on pass plays.  If I look at two different QB's playing in two different offensive systems, one player could be a WAY more accurate passer, and have a worse completion percentage.

Let's look at two players that NU fans should be familiar with.  Taylor Martinez was a career 59.8% passer in college.  Tanner Lee has been a career 55.2% passer in college.  According to your completion % stat, you would say that Martinez was a more accurate passer.  I loved Martinez, but I don't think he was a more accurate passer than Lee.

 

[ColoradoHusk]

Gino Toretta is a great example of an over rated player.

There is no way Tommie ever compared favorably to Peyton Manning as a passer. None.

Wuerrfel's completion percentage in '95 was not helped at all in their bowl game. 

That said, it is far more accurate to go with career completion percentage (imo) than cherry picking the best year.

I went with Frazier's best year because he had to play as a true freshman and sophomore, where he wouldn't have been a very polished passing QB.  Then his junior season, his year was cut short, with only 19 pass attempts.  My comments toward Frazier and Manning were to show that their completion % weren't significantly different in their senior, All-American seasons.  I didn't say Frazier was favorable or better to Manning.

 

[TGHusker]

I know I said I was going to stop commenting on it, but I wanted to do some additional research in the 1990s and completion % of the All-American QB's from each year.  Here is what I found.

1990 - Ty Detmer - 64%

1991 - Ty Detmer - 62%

1992 - Gino Torretta - 56%

1993 - Charlie Ward - 70% (what an amazing year by Ward)

1994 - Kerry Collins - 67% (much higher than his career # of 56%)

1995 - Tommie Frazier - 56%

1996 - Danny Wuerrfel - 58%

1997 - Peyton Manning - 60%

1998 - Cade McNown - 58% & Tim Couch - 72% (Couch was the first prolific spread QB)

1999 - Joe Hamilton - 66%

So, as you will see, in Frazier's best year of 1995, his passing % is comparable to 3 other All-American QB's (Torretta, Wuerrel, and McNown) who were thought of as pocket passers.  Frazier isn't even significantly lower than Peyton Manning.

Was Frazier's passing his best trait, absolutely not.  But his passing completion % wasn't terrible in his best year, especially considering the threat he was running the ball.  It's also difficult to look at stats from the early to mid 90s and compare them to today's offenses.  It's just an apples to oranges comparison.

One might think that Frazier's #s would be higher when you consider another stat:  He was never sacked one time in 95. This should also mean, that he probably had fewer 'hurries' or near sacks.  The OL was amazing and one would think that the completion % would be higher when one has more time to throw.  Of course you have to take into consideration that many of TF's throws were out of play action - normally involving option play that added to the deceptiveness of the play.  Play option doesn't necessarily place you in the most favorable passing form or stance - not easy to get your footing correct in those situations.    I haven't looked but I believe Scott Frost has a higher pass completion rate.   He looked awfully good in that Big 12 championship game against Texas A&M. 

The one time Tommie almost got sacked in 95:

<iframe width="854" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NKav-YaJvTw" frameborder="0" gesture="media" allow="encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[TGHusker]

I was wrong - Frost's % was lower than Tommie's:


Passing





 


 


Passing


Year


School


Conf


Class


Pos


G


Cmp


Att


Pct


Yds


Y/A


AY/A


TD


Int


Rate


Career


Overall


 


 


 


 


227


445


51.0


3147


7.1


6.8


20


12


119.9


 


Stanford


 


 


 


 


35


86


40.7


470


5.5


3.3


2


5


82.7


 


Nebraska


 


 


 


 


192


359


53.5


2677


7.5


7.6


18


7


128.8


1993


Stanford


Pac-10


 


QB


11


2


9


22.2


6


0.7


0.7


0


0


27.8


1994


Stanford


Pac-10


 


QB


11


33


77


42.9


464


6.0


3.6


2


5


89.1


1996


Nebraska


Big 12


 


QB


12


104


200


52.0


1440


7.2


7.8


13


3


130.9


1997


Nebraska


Big 12


 


QB


12


88


159


55.3


1237


7.8


7.3


5


4


126.0

 

[Landlord]

What if we included Frazier's successful pitches on options as a completed pass?  

...that would be really dumb?

I agree that there were a lot of passes attempted that were wide open play action passes, and that Frazier wasn't a "great" passer.  I just think it's lazy for people to point to completion % as the main point when commenting on a player's passing ability.  I will stop commenting on it.

What other metric would you use for a quarterback's passing ability, or more specifically, their accuracy? Touchdowns or yards aren't great ones because that depends just as much on the coach's playcalling as it does anything else, interceptions aren't too bad but that probably speaks more towards a QB's brain than his arm, so what would you use?

Was Frazier's passing his best trait, absolutely not.  But his passing completion % wasn't terrible in his best year, especially considering the threat he was running the ball.

Congratulations you agree with all of us. Nobody said he was terrible.

 

[ColoradoHusk]

What other metric would you use for a quarterback's passing ability, or more specifically, their accuracy? Touchdowns or yards aren't great ones because that depends just as much on the coach's playcalling as it does anything else, interceptions aren't too bad but that probably speaks more towards a QB's brain than his arm, so what would you use?

I think throwing accuracy is really measured by someone's eyeballs, not a statistic.  I know an accurate passer when I see it.