Rex Burkhead ready to carry the load
- Thread starter n.e.husker
- Start date
huskerscott
Starter
A new OC, a new QB coach are reasons NU wont crush the Ohio State, the Wisconsins of the BigTen. Im not being a Debbie Downer, I just think NU is atleast 2 years away from competing in the BigTen. Our offensive has been the laughing stock of college football the last 2 years. Other than a new OC and position coaches, I have no reason to believe this year wont be any different. History tends to repeat itself. Let the team atleast play some conference games before we get all excited about how good the offense really is. Plus I dont think Tmart is gonna be able to go the whole year without getting injured.
I think alittle too much kool aid is being drank around here.
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Joe_5700
Starter
I guess the old QB couch was getting pretty old and needed to be replaced. Is the new one leather?
Hujan
Starter
Respectfully, I think you are underestimating (1) Watson and Gilmore's negative effect on our offense, and (2) how quickly Beck will be able to turn this ship around to at least some degree. I agree that we won't realize the full benefit of Beck's changes until Year 2, but there will be a significant improvement this seasons, nonetheless. Just as Bo didn't get us to be a top defense until 2009, we still made dramatic improvement in 2008.
huskerscott
Starter
Yes, Watson and Gilmore were big negative effects on the offense.
But now everybody seems to think everything is gonna be perfect now that beck is running the show on offense. We may show some improvement this next year and by the end of the year have an identity of what exactly they want to on offense. Dont expect this offense to improve as much as the defense did between 2007 and 2008. A jump of about 60 some spots in total defense, that is just unrealistic. The next year was extremely better. We should expect the same with the offense. If not give Beck and Co. alittle more time to get this right.
We are still atleast 2 years away from dominating BigTen defenses. Much like the Callahan era, watson and gilmore didnt screw this up overnight. Thus it wont be fixed overnight.
Hujan
Starter
Here is my take. If you were to rank our offense from last year --- taking into consideration only conference games and the Bowl game (doing so, so as to assess only against the better competition) --- and you are ranking on a scale of 1 -10, with 1 being as bad as is possible, 10 being as good as possible and 5 being an average major-conference-level offense --- then I'd place last years offense as a 2.5 on a 10-point scale. Now... I'd expect that with this new year coming up --- a healthy QB, more experience, simpler schemes, and better blocking assignments --- that the NU offense could be much better than last year --- perhaps a 4 on a scale of 10 (almost an average D1 major-conference level offense). Limit the fumbles and penalties, lower the sacks needlessly taken... and maybe NU is a 5.5 or 6 on a scale of 10.
So... improvement? Almost certainly. Improvement into a "good" offense (a 6.5-7.0 on a scale of 10)... not likely. But we could have an average (to slightly better than average) offense (which would be a great improvement over last year, where, frankly, NU was pathetic in conference and in the bowl). If so... we can compete reasonably well in the B10. Win a division? Likely no... but compete and win more than we lose (in conference)? Yes.
HotGrillonGrillAction
Five-Star Recruit
I think laughing stock is a bit extreme! We had some HORRID moments...no doubt...but far from the worst and flashes of awesomeness......
I've said it in many posts...a few tweaks here and there.....and TM is the Heisman winner. The tweaks may have been made correctly - time will tell.
Laughing stock, NU was not tho...just bad at the wrong times.
huskerscott
Starter
laughing stock was maybe abit extreme. But when the stage was at its biggest, the offense shut down and looked completely lost.
Tweaks here and their could fix this offense tremendously. But we are far from dominating BigTen defenses, I dont care how much "speed" we supposedly have.
Hujan
Starter
Let's take a look:
K State: 9
Texas: 1
Okie State: 9
Mizzou: 7
Iowa State: 3
Kansas: 3
A&M: 1
Colorado: 5
Oklahoma: 3
Washington: 1
I add that up and get a 4.2 (42/10). Now, notice that pre-Martinez injury (italicized dates) is an average of 6.5, and post-Martinez injury is an average of 2.67, using my very sophisticated numerical assessment of every game. Now, anyone who's followed my posts (don't you all?) would know that I don't lay all the blame for our late-season offensive woes on Martinez's glass ankle, but there is no question it had an impact. To compromise, let's say that without Martinez's injury, our offense would have maintained at least a solid 5.5 average for the year.
If you take that 5.5 and add the 1.5 you are crediting us with from the changes to the scheme and coaching staff, you are looking at ~7 on a 10 point scale assuming Martinez stays healthy. I think that's about right: If Martinez stays healthy and we see some significant, but modest, improvements in our offensive scheming/play calling/fundamentals, I think we can have an above-average to good offense.
Of course, the real question is what will the improved offense do to Rex's numbers. Well, it looks more and more likely that Rex, rather than one of the new guys, is going to be the feature back in our system, which will have an increased effect on his carries. Last year, Rex got 951 yards on 172 carries for almost exactly 5.5 yards a pop. Now one has to address how many more carries Rex will get now that he is the feature back.
To answer that, I would point out that Rex and Roy had 360 combined carries last year, which is about 25 per game. With our shift to a run-first offense, I would expect us to run the ball at least as much next year, and probably more. And as our only back with any real experience, I would expect Rex to get the bulk of our HB carries. I will split the difference and say that Rex will carry at least 19 times per game next year. At last year's rate of 5.5 yards per carry, that comes out to 1,436 yards assuming a 14-game season (or 1,358 yards assuming we miss the BigTen CCG).
But note that this is using last year's rate and is therefore not giving Rex the benefit of any improvements in blocking, play calling, and having other playmakers on the field that the D has to account for. (For example, much of those 5.5 yards last year came with Rex running against a stacked box out of the Wildcat where it was obvious he was going to tote the rock, or with no Martinez on the field. In fact, Rex's two highest production games---Iowa State and Colorado---came without the benefit of Martinez on the field.) Nor is this giving recognition to probably the most important factor of all: Rex's own individual improvement from last year.
I would not be surprised, then, if Rex flirted with a yards-per-carry rating of somewhere around 5.8 or even 6.0 next year, depending on how well our offense is humming. Now, if he totes 19 times a game at 6.0 yards per carry, you are looking at just under 1,600 yards in a 14-game season, or just under 1,500 yards by the time Heisman voting will occur. Assuming that he will also make contributions as a receiver, he could have around 1,800 all-purpose yards.
Is it enough to win the Heisman? Probably not, but if our offense improves slightly, Martinez stays healthy, and Rex stays healthy, I think there is a good chance he'll at least be in the conversation.
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zoogs
Assistant Coach
There's very little reason to assume this, though.
We just streamrolled OSU and followed that up by steamrolling Missouri, one of the better defenses we faced all year - and better than any of the defenses we faced after that, Oklahoma possibly excepted.
We'd really get stopped by the likes of ISU, Kansas, Colorado without that injury? I don't believe a bit of that. Even A&M I think we would roll without all the distractions and the blows to the team's confidence as people hit a brick wall. But then, with those refs, you never know.
Hujan
Starter
I tend to agree, but was trying to be conservative in my estimates. I should have said, "At worst, without Martinez's injury, we would have been a solid 5.5 average for the year."
In any event, you might be under-estimating Texas A&M's defense a smidge. Von Miller was a force.
Regardless, do you agree that Rex is set to have a big year next year? I guarantee he breaks 1,200 yards next season, barring injury.
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zoogs
Assistant Coach
I think Rex will have a big year...although if I had to guess, I'd say he wouldn't break 1200 yards. Next year we'll have Rex, and I figure two of the three true freshmen. As well as some promising walk-ons who could work their way into the rotation. Plus a lot of QB running. I don't know - it's hard to say. Just a prediction. I'd guess he manages 1000, but not 1200.
AngryHusker88
Banned
The Dude
Heisman Trophy Winner
I agree dumping Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dumb will be huge. HUGE. I don't know if I agree with your second point though. Bo was a proven defensive genius when he took over. Beck hasn't proven squat.