safest picks ATS this weekend - Nebraska's one of 'em

[beorach]

I figure there have been enough stats to try and make some picks against the spread. I look at overall ratings and come up with a spread to compare with those from sports books and then it's just a matter of safeguards. Mine are that the team I'm picking has: 1) played the stronger schedule (using http://www.footballperspective.com/category/srs/); 2) at least an average turnover margin rating (using those z-scores I post); and 3) at least an average offense (using z-scores from passing, rushing, scoring, and total offense categories). It's probably reasonable not to pick games with spreads that are too high as well but all I'm doing is trying to start conversation with fellow Husker fans really.

BYU met all the criteria last night and would have been a good pick ATS. For the future games on this list, I'm looking at:

Cal

Syracuse

Michigan

Nebraska

Washington State

I'd certainly consider injuries before wagering but those look as safe as any per the stats. I looked at all the FBS games of the week to come up with that short list. There are other games that don't meet the criteria that also seem pretty safe...like Auburn hosting Arkansas. The Tigers have a negative turnover margin rating but so do the Razorbacks (and the Hogs' is worse/greater).

p.s. - Sorry if this doesn't belong here. I looked around to see if people were making predictions (and think I remember there being a thread or two somewhere) but perhaps not long enough.

 

[SuperBigFan69]

How do you usually end up doing?

I basically just pick with my gut...it doesn't work so well!

 

[C N Red]

I figure there have been enough stats to try and make some picks against the spread. I look at overall ratings and come up with a spread to compare with those from sports books and then it's just a matter of safeguards. Mine are that the team I'm picking has: 1) played the stronger schedule (using http://www.footballperspective.com/category/srs/); 2) at least an average turnover margin rating (using those z-scores I post); and 3) at least an average offense (using z-scores from passing, rushing, scoring, and total offense categories). It's probably reasonable not to pick games with spreads that are too high as well but all I'm doing is trying to start conversation with fellow Husker fans really.

BYU met all the criteria last night and would have been a good pick ATS. For the future games on this list, I'm looking at:

Cal

Syracuse

Michigan

Nebraska

Washington State

I'd certainly consider injuries before wagering but those look as safe as any per the stats. I looked at all the FBS games of the week to come up with that short list. There are other games that don't meet the criteria that also seem pretty safe...like Auburn hosting Arkansas. The Tigers have a negative turnover margin rating but so do the Razorbacks (and the Hogs' is worse/greater).

p.s. - Sorry if this doesn't belong here. I looked around to see if people were making predictions (and think I remember there being a thread or two somewhere) but perhaps not long enough.

I'll take the opposites ATS.

I actually really like Oregon and Boston College. Illinois and Purdue not as much. And I have a lean towards Arizona State at home.

 

[beorach]

I haven't had but maybe one college football season that was remotely lucrative and that was probably beginner's luck. I am not always so careful either, though. I usually start too early in the season and go with my gut more than anything, too, because there aren't enough stats when there haven't been many games played. I get down some and get serious, playing more responsibly and winning some back ahead of the bowl season (at which point I often don't gamble at all because it's tougher and I'm probably already down enough). I.e., I'm likely pretty typical for results despite my fooling with spreadsheets.

I figure it adds value to what I'm choosing to do for entertainment already and it's fun to talk with friends doing the same besides. Once I get down a hundred bucks, I give it up until the next season. I might just see how these picks fare or I might try my luck this weekend. That first bet of the season is the hardest. I've resisted the urge so far.

It would probably make more sense to try the NFL, especially considering that tracking strength of schedule isn't such a big deal for picking those games, but I just don't get into watching it so much.

Here's to our picks coming through...punching our tickets on a gravy train with biscuit wheels! Gold-plated diapers!

 

[beorach]

Syracuse - BC is probably too horrible a game to pick, to be fair, even if it's just a matter of not having to watch it. You have a terrible offense (BC) going against a terrible defense (Syracuse). The Orangemen have taken care of the ball much better despite having played a tougher schedule, though. The spread I calculated still has BC winning but just not covering.

Cal is another close one in terms of the spread calculation. Both the Bears and Ducks have good offensive stats overall but Oregon's defensive numbers are just so terrible. Cal has given up a lot of yards on the ground, though.

Arizona State would be quite a surprise. The Pirate has a good thing going and there would seem to be a mismatch with respect to their passing offense and the Sun Devils' passing defense.

 

[beorach]

Well, per the spreads I saw, only Nebraska and Cal failed to cover from those picks I shared. Cal wouldn't have cost me any money had I bet it either (as it was a push - they won by the spread). I abstained for now, though. Maybe I'll take a risk on this week's games since the "safe" rationale would have been profitable last week.

I was talking to some other Nebraska fans who were thinking they should jump on Arkansas Saturday, per the "bet against what the people are betting" rationale (as they could see the line moving a few points over the course of last week). I tried to warn them it didn't look right on paper so hopefully they at least held off.

I hope you didn't get too filthy on those, C N.

 

[beorach]

This methodology points to Utah, Michigan, Florida State, and West Virginia this week.

 

[beorach]

Those only got me 2 outta 4. I think I'm going to loosen up a bit this week for picks. Tulsa, Old Dominion, Washington State, Virginia Tech, and UTSA will be my picks ATS. All are pretty big favorites aside from UTSA. p.s. - I feel like I should delete this thread but am not sure how. Please feel free if you have the power...