Sagarin Rating - Still Weird

Hooked on Huskers

Hooked on Huskers

All-Conference
Huskers: #35 (#42 last week). Suffered lack of SOS so far (#107).

tOSU: #11

Wisky: #13

Spartans: #23

Wolverines: #34

Huskers: #35

PSU: #42

Hawkeyes: #44

Hoosiers: #47

NW: #49

Illini: #61

Gophers: #77

Purdue: #133

Wyoming: #85

S.Miss: #163

UCLA: #6

SDSU: #111

BCS Countdown Show this evening or next Sunday?
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. Sagarin is a part of BCS formula.

http://www.usatoday....arin/2013/team/

 
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We are #25 in the predictor rankings which is the part you want to look at though. ELO Chess doesn't take margin of victory into account, which makes it pretty bad (Naturally, it's the one the BCS uses in order to try to prevent teams from running up the score lol)

 
Here's some more Sagarin weirdness (I will quote all rankings as the ELO CHESS used in BCS):

Baylor #4 despite #105 SOS (why would they be above #7 UCLA who has #92 SOS and beaten Utah and NU?)

Louisville #9 despite #125 SOS (why are they ahead of unbeaten T Tech, Miami, or Ohio St who all have a better SOS?)

Wisconsin #14 despite #99 SOS and two losses?!?

Overall my critique of the Sagarin rankings is that he doesn't seem to care much about losses, and places an excessive weighting on relatively small and subjective differences in SOS. Then he goes in and makes some random adjustments just to play with people's minds.

Another example, he has N Illinois and Fresno St ranked #49 and #57. Good for him, sniffed out those unbeaten teams from weak conferences and gave them no credit. Then he destroys the credibility of his rankings by putting two-loss Boise St team #29 (vs. NU #37 as a comparison). I guess that was on the merits of Boise's #83 SOS, loss to Fresno St, and 38-6 drubbing by Washington.

 
Even Sagarin doesn't like the ELO CHESS ratings. He just has to do them to be included in the BCS. Just look at the PREDICTOR ratings.

 
Predictor ratings are not much better, numbers 7-10 ranked teams there are Washington, Wisconsin, Stanford and Arizona St. Sort of reinforces my theory that Sagarin places too little emphasis on a loss, with respect to ratings, in favor of SOS.

And just when you think you have any handle on his SOS rankings, you see an anomaly such as Wisconsin's #8 ranking, 0-2 record vs. top 30, and #99 SOS. So I guess they beat someone really good but not quite in the top 30, like #53 Northwestern?

Bring on Northwestern, I think we handle those guys easily too!

(I realize that Wisconsin lost a couple of close games, but putting them #8 right now is garbage in, garbage out at its finest. Side note: Wisconsin is favored to go 10-2 and to the Orange Bowl now instead of NU, based on OSU in Rose. All on the strength of beating NW, LOL).

 
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Knoxville Husker said:
Side note: Wisconsin is favored to go 10-2 and to the Orange Bowl now instead of NU, based on OSU in Rose. All on the strength of beating NW, LOL.
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If we win-out this regular season and lose to tOSU in the conference championship, I could see us squeezing in that second BCS spot (if there is one available). I understand it is tough for a conference championship loser to go. However, I think the Orange Bowl would love to see a Nebraska following for the first time in 12 years instead of a fourth-straight Wisconsin BCS loss. Our losses would be to a #15 UCLA and #2-3 tOSU. Wisconsin's losses would be to an unranked Arizona State and a #4 tOSU. Also, our SOS will likely far exceed theirs after our respective remaining schedules.

 
I'd say a conference championship losing NU at 9-4 will not beat out a 10-2 Wisconsin team due to the rationale that the top 2 B1G teams were in the WU/OSU division. A 10-3 NU loser to OSU is a "maybe" and it could depend on style points, for example an abomination like last year's title game would likely get us passed over. An 11-2 NU team, as you alluded to by winning out then losing to OSU, would likely get us the bid I would agree.

 
tschu said:
We are #25 in the predictor rankings which is the part you want to look at though. ELO Chess doesn't take margin of victory into account, which makes it pretty bad (Naturally, it's the one the BCS uses in order to try to prevent teams from running up the score lol)
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We are now 36 in the Predictor and even worse in ELO?!?
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Yeah.

UCLA lost

Illinois lost

Purdue lost

Southern Miss got blown out by East Carolina

Wyoming lost to a 2-4 CSU team

South Dakota State lost to a 1-6 Missouri State team

So basically all of our comparative data points took a hit (massive hit in some cases) in the same week.

 
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tschu said:
Yeah.

UCLA lost

Illinois lost

Purdue lost

Southern Miss got blown out by East Carolina

Wyoming lost to a 2-4 CSU team

South Dakota State lost to a 1-6 Missouri State team

So basically all of our comparative data points took a hit (massive hit in some cases) in the same week.
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that is incredible. i was pretty disappointed in the ucla loss, but the wyoming loss really makes me feel bad.

 
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I understand our SOS took a hit. Still, LSU loses to an unranked team and falls 1-2 spots. We don't even play and fall ELEVEN just based off of opponents losing! WTH?

EDIT: Same with Georgia and USC. Losses to awful unranked teams barely punished them.

 
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QMany said:
I understand our SOS took a hit. Still, LSU loses to an unranked team and falls 1-2 spots. We don't even play and fall ELEVEN just based off of opponents losing! WTH?

EDIT: Same with Georgia and USC. Losses to awful unranked teams barely punished them.
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Technically, two teams ARE ranked, not Top25 but ranked because Ole Miss and ND received votes in Coaches poll.

 
Florida (4-5) is ranked 14 spots higher than Nebraska (7-2). Luckily, the BCS uses Pure ELO, because that is absurd.

 
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