While it could be closer, I think 31-14 is about right. NU puts up a couple TD's in the 4th quarter to pull away. NU should have a really good offense this season and an above average defense. USM is playing in Lincoln with a new coaching staff, so I'm not sure you can reasonably expect better than that.
Every CUSA/MAC/Sunbelt fan that comes on this board points out that their team is better than we think. But that rarely ends up being the case. Of course, in the era where Michigan lost to App. St., absolutely anything is possible.
I don't doubt it and I get what you are thinking. But if we DID win this game, it wouldn't be a "shock the world" "oh my goodness what just happened" upset. We have a very good team this year and I expect us to compete with Nebraska better than you think we will. I'm not saying we will win at all, but as a Southern Miss fan that's certainly what I'm hoping for.
USM beating NU is certainly not the biggest upset ever, and won't even be the biggest upset of the season (maybe of the opening weekend?). Heck USM beat NU in Lincoln in 2004, so it's even happened in the last decade.
But I think NU is better than any team USM beat last season, and I don't think USM will be as good this season as last. And given the new coaching staff and schemes on both sides of the ball, USM will be learning throughout the season so I think they'll be inconsistent and error-prone early in the year - not good for the first game especially on offense where timing and consistency are key. NU will also be playing their first game which leads me to think that the score stays close until the end when NU's talent in the 2nd and 3rd string wears out USM.