Success vs Failure

[lo country]

Normally the bottoms line for any team is winning but style points in Nebraska’s case matter almost as much.  Some fans won’t be happy, even in year 1, with 6 ‘ugly’ wins if there are 3 or 4 ugly losses and the season long trend line is flat or negative.  
 

I’m hoping for an organized team with a basic identity and good game planning.  That doesn’t mean wins happen immediately nor even often enough.  But it does indicate that the coaches are coaching smart football strategy with a system in mind.  
 

Year 1 will be an indicator of what Rhule football looks like.  Talent level will be at least marginally better in some positions and I suspect much better in some areas.  I believe Rhule will put some difference makers on the field this fall.  
 

Offense:  most likely will be inconsistent and hit or miss.  The key will be QB and establishing a decent run game.  If we can get 4.0 yrds per carry out of the RBs, that’s a key indicator that offense will, over time, be better.  
If Simms fails, the season will be very depressing.  He’s got to get first downs with his legs to keep drives alive or the punter will be the team MVP.  Ugh.  If we can hit 50% of the short/intermediate throws, that will help.  Throw 4-6 deeper shots and get some power running going, then wins will happen even this first year .   A big IF imo.  
 

Defense:  I expect similar results - hit and miss, get some big stops and give some big plays.  Can the defense get 2.5 turnovers a game and give no more than 2.5 TDs a game?   If so, then Huskers can compete.  The defense will overrun and get out of position more than they should but as time goes on, that will improve.  Team speed will be evident and will allow for some mistakes to be contained and damages lessened.

Special teams:  will start a season with a details coach.  We can believe Rhule will pay attention and give STs a good share of time and effort.  We saw what happened with some honest coaching and a forethought instead of after thought.  
 

Wins will come - over time - with better coaching and smarting recruiting.  X & Os remain unknowns under Rhule. At times they were mysterious under Frost imo.   He had some good ideas but imo he was mostly a pass game coordinator not a head coach.  Some staff helped but not enough.  I think Rhule has made some good hires but game management and player development remains unknowns.  A season will give some indication.  A couple staff adjustments will be almost inevitable. Some succeed, some don’t. Some get hired away, some don’t.  
 

Rhule inherits a .333 program with 6 losing seasons in a row.  He gets a reasonable time to turn things around and win more.  First, get the players and begin teaching them to play the game hard and smart for 4 quarters.  Not perfect but at least on average with their peers in P5 and Big Ten. That should be years 1 and 2 for me. By year three try to be above the average. As wins come, recruits and roster guys will experience the results of their efforts.  

To the bolded, I think Simms will be more in line with what the HC has vs what he wants. I also think Satt will scheme with Simm's skill set.  Pre-season was not too concerned with QB depth, but now, to your point if he gets injured who do we have......Not sold on Purdy or HH tbh.  Hoping the staff can coach the QB's up and get them ready.  

Truly just excited about this season getting started.

 

[brophog]

The key will be QB and establishing a decent run game.  If we can get 4.0 yrds per carry out of the RBs, that’s a key indicator that offense will, over time, be better.  
If Simms fails, the season will be very depressing.  He’s got to get first downs with his legs to keep drives alive or the punter will be the team MVP.  Ugh.  If we can hit 50% of the short/intermediate throws, that will help.

These two numbers are too low. For instance, last year the top 4 RBs all averaged over 4 yards per carry. The rushing number I want to see is fewer QB carries. Not that I don't want a QB run component to an offense, but not as a substitute to your other options.

We are a long, long ways from the days where 50% completion percentage on short and intermediate throws is in any way acceptable. Anywhere near 50% is a sign you have much bigger problems than just the QB. That number should be closer to 65% or better at those ranges and from the passing concepts we showed this spring I think that range is totally doable.  

Defense:  I expect similar results - hit and miss, get some big stops and give some big plays.  Can the defense get 2.5 turnovers a game and give no more than 2.5 TDs a game?   If so, then Huskers can compete.  The defense will overrun and get out of position more than they should but as time goes on, that will improve.

This is the thing everyone needs to accept right now, and it doesn't matter if it is Year 1 or Year 10: This defense will give up big plays. It can be very high risk at times and sometimes as the DC you're simply going to guess wrong and they're going to have the perfect play, and that possibility increases when you start moving pieces around more like this defense will. My opinion on it, and there are certainly arguments against it, is we are in an era where even the best talent is going to be in a boat race a few times a year, especially within the two stacked conferences. Offenses have all of the advantages these days and I'd rather have a defense with the tools to fight back than lose a war of attrition.

This defense is going to be a lot of fun, though. As to your numbers, turnovers have so much randomness involved that they're hard to project year on year. I do expect, though, to put opposing QBs in a position to make mistakes.

He gets a reasonable time to turn things around and win more.

I'm going to say the same thing I said when Frost was hired: He gets three years. In fact, if I had my way, no new head coach would get anything but a 3 year deal, but then again you'd have a hard time signing him to that deal, now wouldn't you.

The data is really clear on this. If they haven't done anything past year 3, they almost certainly never will. Rhule followed a very similar pattern at Temple and Baylor. One win in conference in Year 1, ~.500 in Year 2, and 1 loss in Years 3/4. Most projections this year assume he's coming into a much better situation than those stops so they've jumped him up into that area of 5-7 wins. Personally, if he's the guy we think he is, I'd expect a pretty significant jump in Year 2.

 

[ColoradoHusk]

These two numbers are too low. For instance, last year the top 4 RBs all averaged over 4 yards per carry. The rushing number I want to see is fewer QB carries. Not that I don't want a QB run component to an offense, but not as a substitute to your other options.

We are a long, long ways from the days where 50% completion percentage on short and intermediate throws is in any way acceptable. Anywhere near 50% is a sign you have much bigger problems than just the QB. That number should be closer to 65% or better at those ranges and from the passing concepts we showed this spring I think that range is totally doable.  

This is the thing everyone needs to accept right now, and it doesn't matter if it is Year 1 or Year 10: This defense will give up big plays. It can be very high risk at times and sometimes as the DC you're simply going to guess wrong and they're going to have the perfect play, and that possibility increases when you start moving pieces around more like this defense will. My opinion on it, and there are certainly arguments against it, is we are in an era where even the best talent is going to be in a boat race a few times a year, especially within the two stacked conferences. Offenses have all of the advantages these days and I'd rather have a defense with the tools to fight back than lose a war of attrition.

This defense is going to be a lot of fun, though. As to your numbers, turnovers have so much randomness involved that they're hard to project year on year. I do expect, though, to put opposing QBs in a position to make mistakes.

I'm going to say the same thing I said when Frost was hired: He gets three years. In fact, if I had my way, no new head coach would get anything but a 3 year deal, but then again you'd have a hard time signing him to that deal, now wouldn't you.

The data is really clear on this. If they haven't done anything past year 3, they almost certainly never will. Rhule followed a very similar pattern at Temple and Baylor. One win in conference in Year 1, ~.500 in Year 2, and 1 loss in Years 3/4. Most projections this year assume he's coming into a much better situation than those stops so they've jumped him up into that area of 5-7 wins. Personally, if he's the guy we think he is, I'd expect a pretty significant jump in Year 2.

Shocker that 84 was throwing out numbers for his expectations for success which don’t align with typical college footballl stats from the past few years. 

 

[84HuskerLaw]

I’m not sure that Neb is all that much different in circumstances as Temple and Baylor in year 1.   Perhaps the only difference is the historical difference in the schools. That might mean more if Rhule were following Pelini or Solich.  But one winning season in the past 8?  No, Nebraska is at this time a perennial loser probably in the bottom third of FBS ala Baylor and Temple.  
 

Fan base is top ten but they don’t play one snap.  Frost was a media favorite that was obviously in way over his head.  This program is starting a long term rebuild from ground up.  That takes time but recruiting limits and transfers allow a more rapid transition.  But building a balanced, experienced and mature and laddered roster still takes 4-5 years.  I believe Rhule is targeting the areas of biggest need but as we see now, areas of need are almost across the board.  Frost emphasized skill offensive positions.  Even there, rebuilding is front and center.  Rhule is finding some apparent gems but only on field results truly measure how much improvement there actually may be.  
 

The cupboard was not bare but it was a lot less than half stocked for Rhule.  We were oversold on Frost recruits and we will see as to Rhule.  I like the recruits so far but I somewhat felt that way under Frost so maybe it’s more wishful thinking and I’m just wanting these recruits to be much better so I see them as such.  

 

[Huskerfollower4life]

I’m not sure that Neb is all that much different in circumstances as Temple and Baylor in year 1.   Perhaps the only difference is the historical difference in the schools. That might mean more if Rhule were following Pelini or Solich.  But one winning season in the past 8?  No, Nebraska is at this time a perennial loser probably in the bottom third of FBS ala Baylor and Temple.  
 

Fan base is top ten but they don’t play one snap.  Frost was a media favorite that was obviously in way over his head.  This program is starting a long term rebuild from ground up.  That takes time but recruiting limits and transfers allow a more rapid transition.  But building a balanced, experienced and mature and laddered roster still takes 4-5 years.  I believe Rhule is targeting the areas of biggest need but as we see now, areas of need are almost across the board.  Frost emphasized skill offensive positions.  Even there, rebuilding is front and center.  Rhule is finding some apparent gems but only on field results truly measure how much improvement there actually may be.  
 

The cupboard was not bare but it was a lot less than half stocked for Rhule.  We were oversold on Frost recruits and we will see as to Rhule.  I like the recruits so far but I somewhat felt that way under Frost so maybe it’s more wishful thinking and I’m just wanting these recruits to be much better so I see them as such.  

Sf banked on his skill players like you said but most of them transferred out and the guys he did have left he couldn't develop them.  What really hurt SF was his first recruiting class that he had here.  Half of them left and so he was trying to plug guys in and we all saw how that turned out.  I don't see that happening with Rhule bc he is so much more available to the recruits, and to the overall state of Nebraska.  He has started out better then SF with introducing himself, his family and the staff he has to the people of the state.  Everyone knew who SF was and he didn't like the limelight that was shined on him and his family from the beginning.

 

[I am I]

When Frost didn’t run any no-huddle, up tempo break neck speed, confusion from day one I was pretty shocked. He had that learning and could’ve done some stuff with that even in spurts to disrupt the B1G.  
 

one score losses at his rate meant discipline and detail lapses. I defended him til he was let go. If he even won 12 of the 25 he lost in one score games he might have his job. 
 

I am absolutely on a wait and see w Rhule. Damn, I wanna see some consistency game to game. I think we take a big leap in the “eye” test category. Whether that equals wins, we shall see. 
we know what progress looks like, hopefully it also means wins. 

Success is wins, period.

But we will all know what “progress” looks like 

 

[BigRedBuster]

Sf banked on his skill players like you said but most of them transferred out and the guys he did have left he couldn't develop them.  What really hurt SF was his first recruiting class that he had here.  Half of them left and so he was trying to plug guys in and we all saw how that turned out.  I don't see that happening with Rhule bc he is so much more available to the recruits, and to the overall state of Nebraska.  He has started out better then SF with introducing himself, his family and the staff he has to the people of the state.  Everyone knew who SF was and he didn't like the limelight that was shined on him and his family from the beginning.

Looking back now, knowing what we know, it's obvious that really good players were sold on Nebraska and Frost.  But, once here, they quickly realized what a s#!tshow the staff was behind the scenes.  When you have a head coach that isn't working hard, not well organized, not first one there in the morning, last one to leave, hearing about them hanging out at Gate 25....bla bla bla.....someone who is serious about their football career is going to look elsewhere.

 

[BigRedBuster]

Yes.  The measure of success or failure based on statistics will show improvement.  If we have a top 50 D and still lose 9 games that's not success.  Improvement yes.  Not success.  Improvement and success are dependent, but not the same IMHO.  Success follows improvement.  If every measurable statistic improves it is that.  Improvement.  And that should lead to more success. But not immediately.  Improvement might take several seasons to result in success.  But for me, while improvement is great.  Wins are better.  We need improvement in every facet of NU and in every phase.  Seeing that will be great.  A "moral" victory if you will in that what Rhule is doing in year one is "working".  And that it should lead to success. 

Unless the new coach in this situation wins the conference and NC, every single year there's a new coach, it's a failure to you.  Because, that's the ultimate goal of the program.

I disagree with that.

The expectation of the first year is to show improvement.....like you said.  So...if there is clear improvement in the program, then that is a successful first year under a new coach rebuilding a program.

 

[Undone]

I think it's reasonable to expect that the defense is noticeably better than last year - because last year it was so bad at many points. Winning six games is probably very doable just by:

1. The defense being significantly better than last year.

2. Special teams being as good or better than last year.

So, I guess I expect to win six games because of what I think White is capable of doing with these players and the addition of Sherman.

 

[brophog]

Success is wins, period.

I don't think anyone is debating that. The question is when do you take that measurement. The data on how coaches progress year by year hasn't really changed since Frost was hired and I remember us talking about it quite a bit back then so it's probably on this site somewhere.

We hired a program builder who has shown he's willing to sacrifice the short term for long term gains. We don't really know what his ceiling is, and for all we know he may be a better builder than he is at sustaining.

 

[Mavric]

Success is wins, period.

Glad to see you're definitely someone who celebrates UCF's National Championship in 2017 and shames those who think Alabama won it.

 

[Xmas32]

Shocker that 84 was throwing out numbers for his expectations for success which don’t align with typical college footballl stats from the past few years. 

Hey all we need is the defense to only give up 15 PPG! How hard could it be! Just a....oh crud top 5 scoring defense lmao

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/28

 

[brophog]

I’m not sure that Neb is all that much different in circumstances as Temple and Baylor in year 1.   Perhaps the only difference is the historical difference in the schools.

I'm just guessing here, but the difference may be in the fact we're not a year removed from a massive sexual assault scandal that made us the pariah of the football world.

 

[lo country]

I'm just guessing here, but the difference may be in the fact we're not a year removed from a massive sexual assault scandal that made us the pariah of the football world.

Decent article on Rhule.  A little dirt from a former player, but nothing you don't hear about every HC save a few....

  Most Bears fans thought Rhule was in over his head, but he was confident and he said everything fans wanted to hear. That spring, he put it into action, bringing in over 30 recruits, including future All-Big 12 performers like quarterback Charlie Brewer, linebacker Terrel Bernard and running back Trestan Ebner. All the momentum led to a 1-11 season.

Rhule saw Baylor football at its bottom and promptly worked it right back up. In year two, the Bears amazingly went 7-6, winning the Texas Bowl. In year three, Rhule’s scrappy Bears went to the Big 12 championship game and the Sugar Bowl, a shoe-string tackle away from the College Football Playoff.

https://www.si.com/college/baylor/football/bears-matt-rhule-baylor-coach-legacy

 

[I am I]

Glad to see you're definitely someone who celebrates UCF's National Championship in 2017 and shames those who think Alabama won it.

wut? 
 

I did not invoke either of those schools or their wins or losses. 
my point was…we can have an eye test of progress.  We are all very aware of our deficiencies. Which would be easy for us to determine some progress or success, even if it doesn’t lead to wins. Since we follow our DONU so closely we can see if we are getting better and Rhule is doing a good job. But there must be wins, which have been in short supply for 6+ yrs. 
 

however, if Rhule doesn’t literally get the wins he too will be judged by his losses, not some perceived gains. He needs to win. That’s what counts. 
 

where in the f did you get UCF and Alabama from my post?  
thx for everything you do for this site, Mav, but don’t throw some things in on my post that I literally didn’t bring up.  
cheers