Tanner Lee 2017 Stats O/U

S

St. Herbie

Walk-on
Saw some predictions cropping up in a recruiting thread regarding Tanner Lee's passing stats, so I decided to start a separate thread here. After doing some (light) research, I came up with over/under numbers for the 2017 season using ESPN stats, assuming Tanner Lee stays healthy:

2700 pass yards

59% completion

23.5 TD

11.5 INT

For reference:

The pass yards, completion percentage, and touchdowns would have ranked fourth among 2016 B1G quarterbacks. The interceptions would be fourth most among the same group.

Nebraska's 2017 opponents' defenses averaged 12.33 interceptions on the season, or roughly one per game.

The most pass yards by any B1G QB: 3614

Best qualifying completion rate: 61.9%

Most touchdowns: 29

Personally, I land on the optimistic side of the numbers, but I'm curious where everyone else would put their money.

 
I'ld take over on all as well. Unless we have the second coming of Walter Payton on the team or Lee decides he is going to change his style and try rush for a thousand yards he will throw for over 2700.

 
O O O U - not so much that TL will be awesome, more so that he will manage the game and we will see a lot of pass that go 10 yards left / 10 yards right / 10 yards down field with a handle full of deep balls mixed in. 2017 season YAC #'s will be a record for NU.

 
I knocked down my original numbers after looking at the 2016 stats and thinking I was being too optimistic, but maybe they are more in line with what everyone expects...

3100 yards

28.5 TD

10.5 INT

64% completion

 
I still think he is capable of O O U O on those numbers, though I would say you are really making it tough with those lines.

 
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Typically, guys that break 3000 are either really good or playing from behind, so an over on that could be seen as good or bad.

The 64% completion would be over two points higher than the top QB from the B1G last year. But maybe that speaks more to the lack of quality QBs in the league?

 
I don't think he will throw that many Ints.

I say over here is my prediction

3100 yards

25 TDs

8 ints

62%

Good numbers but not out of this world stats.

 
Alright. I'm having a slow day at work so I did some maths. Below is a table with the years that HCMR and Danny L were together at OSU. I've also included the average defense in the league from that time line with regards to passing D. They only had 9 teams for the 2013 stats so I didn't include that.

Also our formatting on this board should take tables. I'm not fixing this junk yet.

Year QB % Yrds TD Int

2005 Matt Moore/Ryan Gunderson 58.2 3253 13 23

2006 Matt Moore/Sean Canfield 60.9 3393 20 9

2007 Sean Canfield/Lyle Moevao 56.2 2557 11 21

2008 Lyle Moevao/Sean Canfield 60.3 3237 25 15

2009 Sean Canfield 66.7 3520 23 7

2010 Ryan Katz 58.9 2483 19 12

2011 Sean Mannion 63.6 3328 16 18

2012 Sean Mannion/Cody Vaz 62.5 3992 27 16

2013 Sean Mannion 66.2 4844 38 16

averages 61.5 3400.778 21.33333 15.22222

conservative averages (minus Mannion) 60.2 3073.833 18.5 14.5

Completion yards TD Int

2005 58.99 2998 21.16 13.59

2006 56.99 2723 17.04 24.35

2007 57.23 3003 19.15 26.82

2008 56.73 2480 16.91 13.83

2009 59.16 2899 18.7 11.55

2010 59.76 2754 19.57 12.46

2011 62.39 3215 22.98 11.71

2012 60.558 3054 22.825 15.6

averages 58.976 2891 19.79188 16.23875

At this point I've gotten a little bored of looking at numbers, so I'm not going to finish what I'm doing until later if at all, but these might be some ball park numbers to be thinking of.

 
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I think if you take Tanner Lee's numbers at Tulane, Riley's history at Oregon State, the last two seasons at Nebraska and the returning talent for 2017, you could end up with the same numbers as a guy who just makes sh#t up.

 
Guy Chamberlin said:
I think if you take Tanner Lee's numbers at Tulane, Riley's history at Oregon State, the last two seasons at Nebraska and the returning talent for 2017, you could end up with the same numbers as a guy who just makes sh#t up.
Click to expand...
I think you're right. We should all take a recess until the end of December and pretend like half of this board's discussion isn't speculative nonsense meant to wile away the hours of our ever sadder existence...

Or we could have fun trying to predict how our QB will fare this upcoming season in a new and unfamiliar system, based on what we know and hope to have happen, while engaging in friendly conversation with other fans of our shared team...

Whichever you prefer.

 
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