The 2020 Presidential Election - Convention & General Election

HuskerNation1 said:
Yes if he were to cut taxes for just the lower ends of the income spectrum as he has suggested that would help a bit in maintaining this record-setting economy.  Thanks for adding that detail to the mix!
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thank you for admitting the previous tax cuts did nothing for the lower income people of the united states

 
commando said:
thank you for admitting the previous tax cuts did nothing for the lower income people of the united states
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Please explain where I said that. The first phase of tax cuts reaped benefits for all Americans as they included the individual and corporate rates.  As I said earlier the lowering of the corporate rates are what have helped create the record low unemployment rates including for blacks, hispanics, and asians, and have helped usher in record setting consumer confidence along with great increases in wages.  The new tax cut Trump has talked about is focused just on the middle/lower income earners and would be a cut for individual rates, not the corporate rates.  Again please cite a post where I stated that the previous tax cuts did not benefit middle or lower income americans.

 
Clifford Franklin said:
That seems about fair to me. The only ones that strike me as particularly vexing for Dems if things continue to trend the way they are now are Iowa & Florida. Even if they ceded those they'd still have 270. 
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Over the last few election cycles we have seen Colorado and Virginia move into the solid Dem camp.  With Florida moving that direction  it will become more and more difficult for the Repubs to win the White House.  The demographics are lining up against them.  The Dems have won the popular vote in 6 out of the last 7 presidential contests and would have had the presidency this last time around if they had not run such a horrible candidate in Hillary.  The Repubs only opportunity not to fall into a long term minority party is their hold on state legislatures and governorships.  If they maintain their lead in this areas after the 2020 election they will be able to control redistricting and help their cause in the US House.  However, outside a massive change in likeability of voters due to a change in their policies, I see the dems having a stranglehold on the WH after 2020 if they don't win it in 2020.  As Michael Greson note's in this editorial, the Dems may make a big mistake in nominate a radical in a huge reaction to Trump.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-is-leaving-a-trail-of-ruin-behind-him/2018/11/07/23c8cf66-e2bb-11e8-b759-3d88a5ce9e19_story.html?utm_term=.28f503c54b5e

Judged purely by their outcome, the 2018 midterm elections were significantly north of acceptable. Any evening in which future former congressman Dave Brat and appears-to-be-ousted Dana Rohrabacher — who help constitute the right wing of GOP lunacy — feel dejected is emotionally satisfying. The Democratic-controlled House of Representatives will be a check on an administration in desperate need of checking. At the same time, the Senate will continue its originalist shift in the federal courts — the support of which separates conservative Never Trumpers from those who have simply become liberals.

With an economic growth rate above 3 percent, and an unemployment rate below 4 percent, and a relatively peaceful world — and following a Supreme Court nomination battle that rallied and united the GOP — the president and his party lost control of the House. The #MeToo movement rolled along, bringing the voices of younger women to Washington. Democrats carried independent voters. The “blue wall” was partially reconstructed in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It was, by any standard, a major defeat for the Republican Party. Or, as President Trump calls it, a major victory. :laughpound (Laugh added by TG!)
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But this acceptable midterm outcome disguised disturbing trends — like a patient who is entirely healthy except for a touch of leukemia. Trump’s final political appeal — literally warning that brown people were invading the country and promising they could be shot — was both Trumpism and racism unadulterated. His base of support — millions of people, skewing white and male — found this message compelling. When he referred to his former alleged mistress as “Horseface,” or separated migrant children from their parents, or rounded up migrant children in a desert prison camp, his supporters responded “Hell yeah!” in sports bars and (God help us) evangelical churches across Trump country. They did this because Trump talks like them, and tells it like it is, and defies political correctness, and doesn’t take any crap from anyone — some of the most insipid justifications in the history of American populism. These explanations make free silver look like a compelling cause in comparison.

No serious political prognosticator — and there are a few — thinks this appeal to this shriking group of voters can possibly win national elections 10 or 20 years from now. By making the GOP the party of misogyny, anger and bigotry, Trump is systematically alienating large and growing portions of the electorate. He is dividing old from young, and white from minority, and men from women, and rural from urban. And when Republicans are left with a political coalition concentrated among aging, paunchy, male Caucasians (my demographic group), Trump will be long gone from politics. Like many narcissists, he will leave a trail of ruin behind him and care not one whit.
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The most important test will come in the 2020 presidential nomination process, which has already begun. Here is the hard, political reality for Democrats, unchanged by their recent House victory: Faced with a choice between a scary, quasi-socialist culture warrior of the left and a scary, right-wing, nativist buffoon, America’s current presidential electorate may well choose the latter. And this would grant a racist demagogue the BIGGEST VICTORY OF HIS LIFE.
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I always got a kick that Trump supporters like how he "tells it like it is" but then when he says something stupid, racist, sexist, etc they say that's not to be taking literal

 
jsneb83 said:
I always got a kick that Trump supporters like how he "tells it like it is" but then when he says something stupid, racist, sexist, etc they say that's not to be taking literal
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Or, when he flat out lies, makes things up.....or his staff provides doctored video to promote their agenda????

 
Multiple reasons given why Trump won't win in 2020 - chief being demographics.

https://www.axios.com/donald-trump-2020-presidential-election-chances-86143c8b-9045-414d-b61a-80d67be9107a.html

The gravest threat to the GOP has been — and remains — demographics. Every election, like clockwork, white dominance in voting shrinks by a few percentage points.
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The big picture: They couldn't be more wrong. In fact, all the big trends are working against Trump and the GOP, based on factors that are hiding in plain sight. Despite the conventional wisdom, many people around Trump and in GOP leadership share this dim view.

 


Here are three factors that should worry Trump and the GOP:

  1. The midterm results were actually a terrible leading indicator for him. Turns out that without Hillary atop the ticket, Midwest states like Wisconsin are tough for Trump, and Southern states with rising Hispanic populations are slowly growing more Democratic. Long term, the GOP should be freaking out about this.
  2. Trump and the GOP face two years of public investigations, coming from three different and dangerous directions: Robert Mueller, the state of New York and Congress. Two years of probing hell await. 
  3. The prolonged recovery is on borrowed time, and a recession could well hit at the worst possible time for Trump — in the thick of the presidential race. Live by the markets, die by the markets. 

Axios CEO Jim VandeHei and I go deeper on each of those: The midterms: 

  • Trump has locked his party into a white-man strategy — using the pre-midterm rallies to amp up fears of immigrants and change. The strategy held the Senate for the GOP, since this year's battlegrounds were largely rural.
  • But white men are shrinking, and will continue to, as a proportion of the electorate.
  • Think of it this way: There's not a single demographic trend in America that benefits Republicans.
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  •  
 
BigRedBuster said:
I've said for a long time now, the Republican party offers very little to anyone who isn't an angry old white guy.  
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For many of us, we can no longer vote along party lines - yet it would be nice if someone (s) come along a build a party that catered to a broader voter block than just the radical right or the radical left - that is where both parties are going. 

 
BigRedBuster said:
I've said for a long time now, the Republican party offers very little to anyone who isn't an angry old white guy.  
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How racist of you!  :)   

The GOP has greater diversity of support now than in a long time, and has delivered policies that have improved the wages and economic/job status of blacks and hispanics at record levels.  The Dems are good at race baiting and identity politics, but you are starting to see younger blacks question the prior blind allegiance their parents and grandparents had to the Democratic party.  Hence movements like Walkaway and Blexit.  Exit polls showed Trump got around 8% of the black vote in 2016.  Polls now have his average of black support in high teens to low 20s.  If he could even get close to 15% of the black vote in 2020 that would be a significant shift in a voting block that the Dems have owned since the Civil Rights movement despite offering few policies to help blacks in recent decades.  

 
HuskerNation1 said:
How racist of you!  :)   

The GOP has greater diversity of support now than in a long time, and has delivered policies that have improved the wages and economic/job status of blacks and hispanics at record levels.  The Dems are good at race baiting and identity politics, but you are starting to see younger blacks question the prior blind allegiance their parents and grandparents had to the Democratic party.  Hence movements like Walkaway and Blexit.  Exit polls showed Trump got around 8% of the black vote in 2016.  Polls now have his average of black support in high teens to low 20s.  If he could even get close to 15% of the black vote in 2020 that would be a significant shift in a voting block that the Dems have owned since the Civil Rights movement despite offering few policies to help blacks in recent decades.  
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Trump only got 8% of the black vote in 2016, the single lowest percentage for any Republican in the past 40 years that didn't have to run against Obama (I only stopped at 40 years because Wiki stopped having the election demographics handily available - I'd guess no one has ever had a worse percentage aside from Obama's opponents). This coming while running against the immensely unpopular Hillary Clinton.

Going on to be the single least approved president since they started tracking approval ratings, and running a blatantly racist administration, is not going to help whatsoever.

 
mrandyk said:
Trump only got 8% of the black vote in 2016, the single lowest percentage for any Republican in the past 40 years that didn't have to run against Obama (I only stopped at 40 years because Wiki stopped having the election demographics handily available - I'd guess no one has ever had a worse percentage aside from Obama's opponents). This coming while running against the immensely unpopular Hillary Clinton.

Going on to be the single least approved president since they started tracking approval ratings, and running a blatantly racist administration, is not going to help whatsoever.
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Yet many times this past year his polling numvbers were higher than Obama and Reagans...and despite 92% negative coverage. You must be racist for continuing to make such slanderous statements.

 
Moiraine said:
You're doing it again, broken record.
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So wages have not been rising? Black and Hispanic unemployment have not reached record lows?  Its hard for leftists to accept Trumps policies which were starkly different from Obamas have given the economy the boost it needed leading to all the records that have been set. 

 
HuskerNation1 said:
So wages have not been rising? Black and Hispanic unemployment have not reached record lows?  Its hard for leftists to accept Trumps policies which were starkly different from Obamas have given the economy the boost it needed leading to all the records that have been set. 
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It's hard for you to engage in common sense with most of the things you post.

 
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