The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election

Who will you vote for in November - new ballot:

  • Harris

    Votes: 28 71.8%

  • Trump

    Votes: 3 7.7%

  • Kennedy

    Votes: 5 12.8%

  • Other

    Votes: 3 7.7%
  • Total voters
    39
Dr. Strangelove said:
This isn't really what happened in 2022 if that's what you were referring to.

Conventional wisdom of the opposition party (to the President) almost always doing well in midterms were the basis for the punditry  and predictions for a red tsunami in 2022. Because the opposition party almost always dominates midterm elections during the first term of a new President.

Polling did a pretty good job predicting the outcomes. They didn't get it exact, but Democrats controlling the Senate while Republicans win the house - both with slim majorities - was the 2nd most probable outcome. People seem to not understand that Democrats having a 4/10 chance of winning the Senate are still high odds, like they did in 2022.

Currently, polling suggests that Trump is a very slight favorite - somewhere between 50% - 70% depending on the model. The polling is accurate, the election is almost guaranteed to be close similar to 2020. 
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Well, 2020 was an a$$ kicking in the end.

 
Unfortunately the Republicans nominated Trump instead of DeSantis or Scott and having this race be a sure win.  
 

https://www.mediaite.com/opinion/biden-should-drop-out/

https://www.mediaite.com/news/deep-wide-and-a-very-aggressive-panic-cnns-john-king-reports-dems-may-ask-biden-to-step-aside/
 

“Right now, as we speak, there is a deep, wide and a very aggressive panic in the Democratic Party,” declared King just moments after the debate ended. “It started minutes into the debate, and it continues right now. It involves party strategists, It involves elected officials, it involves fundraisers, and they are having conversations about the president’s performance, which they think was dismal, which they think will hurt other people down the party in the ticket. And they’re having conversations about what they should do about it.”

 
Agree here.  It’s been going on for awhile now where all these excuses about Biden gaffes and brain locks have been going on.   It’s been the reality even when Democrat media tried to explain it away as not true.  They are finally coming to grips with what was true for a long time now.  
 


 
Archy1221 said:
Agree here.  It’s been going on for awhile now where all these excuses about Biden gaffes and brain locks have been going on.   It’s been the reality even when Democrat media tried to explain it away as not true.  They are finally coming to grips with what was true for a long time now.  
 
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Anyone with a functional brain has seen that Biden has been mentally incompetent since 2020. This is not new. However…this is worse than anything he’s done before. Makes you wonder who is really making decisions. The guy had a week to rehearse/get right medically to present a good debate. 

 
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Decked said:
Anyone with a functional brain has seen that Biden has been mentally incompetent since 2020. This is not new. However…this is worse than anything he’s done before. Makes you wonder who is really making decisions. The guy had a week to rehearse/get right medically to present a good debate. 
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I honestly think it was on his doctors last night.  State of the Union he looked amazing.  Whatever cocktail of drugs his doctors gave him that night...is what they should have stuck with.  There is nothing wrong with 80 year old dudes taking meds.  

 
teachercd said:
I honestly think it was on his doctors last night.  State of the Union he looked amazing.  Whatever cocktail of drugs his doctors gave him that night...is what they should have stuck with.  There is nothing wrong with 80 year old dudes taking meds.  
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Makes you wonder if he was set up to fail…

 
teachercd said:
Like, his own people set him up to fail in order to help guide him out of the race and replace him?
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One theory, I don't know if it's true, was that by holding a debate in June it allows Democrats to test the waters before their convention. If the debate was a disaster, it allows them to pivot.

Clearly, the debate wasn't good for Biden or Trump. But Biden wasn't coherent, his stutter bad, and his voice soft. Trump was insane - but understandable. 

We'll basically see over the next two weeks - Democrats could use their surrogates to rally behind a new candidate, Biden could step aside for "health reasons", and the convention would be used to show unity behind whoever they chose. But they have very little time if that's their choice. 

 
Dr. Strangelove said:
One theory, I don't know if it's true, was that by holding a debate in June it allows Democrats to test the waters before their convention. If the debate was a disaster, it allows them to pivot.

Clearly, the debate wasn't good for Biden or Trump. But Biden wasn't coherent, his stutter bad, and his voice soft. Trump was insane - but understandable. 

We'll basically see over the next two weeks - Democrats could use their surrogates to rally behind a new candidate, Biden could step aside for "health reasons", and the convention would be used to show unity behind whoever they chose. But they have very little time if that's their choice. 
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If they make a change, "health reasons" will be the only out they have and even then, JB will have to be hidden away for the next 5 months.

The real problem is, they can't run Harris, right?  But they also can't just skip over her, so she has to come out and say she doesn't want to run.

Not a ton of moving parts but enough to make it difficult.  Plus, JB is a stubborn old man, like most old men, getting him to agree to it would be hard, I would imagine. 

 
teachercd said:
If they make a change, "health reasons" will be the only out they have and even then, JB will have to be hidden away for the next 5 months.

The real problem is, they can't run Harris, right?  But they also can't just skip over her, so she has to come out and say she doesn't want to run.

Not a ton of moving parts but enough to make it difficult.  Plus, JB is a stubborn old man, like most old men, getting him to agree to it would be hard, I would imagine. 
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This is very true. 

The biggest issue with democrats is quickly rallying around a candidate and being unified in that pick. As we all know, it's not often in history that politicians choose to put personal ambition aside.

It's why they probably stick with Biden. That unification candidate doesn't exist. 

 
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