The Bizarre Correlation Between Nebraska's Turnovers and Winning Percentage, 2007-2013

I was critical of Beck's play calling after the Michigan State game. But in the days since I've read a few pieces that indicated Beck had a great game plan. As I look at it objectively, it's hard to argue the game plan wasn't good based on the production from Abdullah and Cross. I continue to become impressed with what our offensive line is doing.

 
TheSker said:
I was critical of Beck's play calling after the Michigan State game. But in the days since I've read a few pieces that indicated Beck had a great game plan. As I look at it objectively, it's hard to argue the game plan wasn't good based on the production from Abdullah and Cross. I continue to become impressed with what our offensive line is doing.
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Me too. I'm more impressed and scattered that opportunity can bring results just as good as the penciled in starters that had past game experience. What's that dude's name, Stirrup or Syrup? Giagantor. Dude just wanted to play on a game day and ball'd when he was thrown in the fire because of dreaded default injuries. Niiice. Just shows when given the chance.....or in this case, forced with no other options......you never know.

 
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I understand why you could read "hope" and "potential" into this article, but I disagree. I actually think it shows that when the numbers catch up to Nebraska, and they will, we're going to lose a whole lotta games. How many games have we won that could have just as easily been losses? More then several; including the most recent two wins and I know there have been several games each year over the course of the past few season that could have just as easily been losses.

 
BIGREDFAN_in_OMAHA said:
One key reason why the team isn't playing at an elite level. You can mock the football gods for only so long before it catches up with you!
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This.........

I believe this a BIG reason the team doesn't get 1-2 more wins a year........

 
knapplc said:
Brandon Vogel, if you don't already know, writes up some pretty good stats-based articles for Hail Varsity. Today's offering takes a look at the bizarre relationship between Nebraska's turnovers - which are astronomical - and our winning percentage. Over the past six+ years, we have an anomalous relationship between turnovers and winning. We're often winning despite ourselves, or in spite of ourselves, and we are definitely an outlier in college football over that span.

Over the Huskers’ last 90 games, every game since the start of the 2007 season to now, they are -45 in total turnover margin (-0.5 TO Marg./G). Either way, total or per game average, that ranks 117th out of the 120 teams that have played FBS football for that entire span. Washington State (-0.639 TO Marg./G) is the only BCS conference school below Nebraska.

The strange thing is that, over that same span, Nebraska’s winning percentage is .667, which ranks 25th nationally. To give you an idea of how rare that is, here are two scatter plots showing all 120 teams’ turnover margin per game as well as their winning percentage between 2007 and now. (Hover over the dots to reveal the team name, national rank, turnover margin per game and winning percentage.)
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LINK

Go read the whole article. He does some really clever work with charts and graphs, all of which show that we win more than we should - way more than we should - for as much as we turn the ball over.

Wrapping that into the conversation of "Keep Bo vs. Fire Bo," it's hard to reach a conclusion. Yes, the turnovers are a huge problem, and that's a coaching issue, and that does not bode well for Bo. But we're winning, and winning a lot, especially when you compare our turnover margin to similarly-situated teams.
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The stupid penalties seem to have been corrected; especially on the OL. If Bo could correct special teams and TOs, NU would be perennial top 10. TO is the number one predictor of wins and losses.

 
I would think if turnovers were easy to fix we would have. There was a lot of info in those charts. Is there anyway to seperate interceptions, fumbles, special teams turnovers?

 
Ironically enough they just said during the halftime show that we've had at least 1 turnover in 24 straight games. That's not a good 'streak' to have.

 
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