The Duke's Observations: UCLA, Tommie's Tweet, & Some Interesting Stat History

The Duke

The Duke

All-Conference
Hello Huskerboard,

For the past several seasons on game day I would post in that day's game thread my impressions of what I saw each quarter & what I would like to see in the 2nd half of each game. Many of you who followed it seemed to like it. Well after getting season tickets this year, that has now limited my ability to do those posts as the game is happening. So instead, on games that I will be attending, I will be posting my thoughts on each game the following Sunday.

I decided to wait to post this until after the UCLA game because you really can't get a good measure on a team after the first game, and I knew Southern Miss would probably play out like a glorified scrimmage, but UCLA would be the start of judging how this 2013 team might play out this year.

Please take note that these are just my opinions, so if you agree with some of these points...great. And if there are some opinions that you don't agree with, I am perfectly fine with that. I look forward to the discussion & your comments.

Sincerely,

The Duke

Now let's get this started....

OBSERVATIONS OF NEBRASKA'S OFFENSE:

  • I lost count how many times Nebraska tried to run a swing pass or screen pass to the boundary yesterday. Yes, a few times it worked, especially that one out pass to Kenny Bell who schooled the defender not once, but TWICE! I think Kenny will certainly get a shot to have a good career for an NFL team.
  • But back to those boundary passes, while they might work on from time to time, they are not designed to be a bread & butter play of an offense, and too often yesterday it seemed that is what Tim Beck was trying to use them for because he wouldn't stick to the running game.
  • The truth about Nebraska's offense is that we can't decide what we want to be? In the course of three games just formation wise there are times when we look like Oregon, while other times you see old-school Nebraska, & some Nevada Pistol. That doesn't even begin to talk mention the grab-bag of plays we are trying to run. Nebraska has become a jack-of-all-trades master of none type of football team. We have nothing to hang our hat on when situations in a game get tight. That is a coaching problem. It goes back to what your coaching philosophy is and what your foundation will be.
  • This offense does have talent...scary talent in fact at many key positions. The problem is using that talent in a cohesive system that brings out the best of each player's ability in order to benefit the team as a whole.

What I would like to see from Nebraska's offense going forward:

  1. Nebraska needs to decide who & what it wants to be offensively? Finesse? Or Power? They need to look at their recruiting area to help with this decision. They must determine what positions the Midwest area high schools consistently produce on a yearly basis and build their offensive foundation around those positions.
  2. In my opinion, Nebraska needs to get away from this finesses, dink-&-dunk passing, and get back to power football. I also think this Oregon no-huddle experiment needs to be canned ASAP! Stats are nice, but if your offense is consistently going 3 & out, you're leaving your own defense completely gassed, and they will have little time to catch their breath on the sideline, and to make the necessary adjustments with their coaches.


OBSERVATIONS OF NEBRASKA'S DEFENSE:

  • I have always believed that you perform like you practice. And if the reports are true that Nebraska only started practicing tackling to the ground last week...that is a problem. Nebraska should have been practicing tackling to the ground in Spring Ball & Fall Camp. Are there risks to practicing in this manor? Absolutely! But the great teams find ways around these risks. If a player gets injured, the team should have the mentality of "next man up!" Practicing consistent tackling to the ground eventually will show up in a major, but very positive way on game day. It builds a toughness & tenacity about your team. For a team that doesn't practice consistent tackling to the ground, a team that only wraps-up in practice...trust me it will show up on game day, and could very well cost you. For Nebraska against UCLA on Saturday it did...time & time again. Missed tackle after missed tackle.... your perform like you practice.
  • I have long been a supporter of Bo Pelini, but not his defensive scheme. And the "we didn't execute" excuse has become old, stale, shows a lack of leadership, and it is like it sounds...an excuse.

What I would like to see from Nebraska's defense going forward:

  • Nebraska must change their defensive scheme. It simply doesn't work! Need proof? Look at the total yards given up in our last 6 losses to BCS conference opponents. When your scheme is to have your lineman tie up blockers in order for your linebackers & secondary to be in charge of making the tackle, that puts an incredible amount of pressure on your secondary. It also is allowing the offense to dictate to the defense what it can & cannot do. Our scheme needs to be changed to the complete opposite mindset. WE NEED TO DICATE TO THE OFFENSE WHAT THEY CAN & CANNOT DO. This is similar to what I said about the offense, we need to find a foundation to build our defense on. In my opinion that would be to scheme to:

  1. Stop the run.
  2. Switch to a 1-Gap Defense to free up our lineman to be aggressive.
  3. Force the defense to make the pass while under fire.


SHOUT OUT TO UCLA:

  • Great fan base, classy people. You're welcome back to Lincoln anytime.
  • Well coached, tough, patient football team.
  • Nebraska's prayers continue to go out to you UCLA for the tragic loss of Nick Pasquale. Best wishes to your team the rest of this season!

MY OPINION ON TOMMIE'S TWEET:

  • There is no other way to describe him...Tommie Frazier is, and will forever be a Legend for Nebraska football. Simply put, Nebraska is not the same program today if it wasn't for Tommie Frazier's contributions & performances on the field. So when a person of his stature, whether you agree with what he said or not, makes a statement calling for coaching changes, all of Nebraska & the fan base must take notice. I don't have a problem at all with what he said...it's his opinion, and he has a right to make it. Think about the roller-coaster of day he must have had on Saturday? Nebraska is up 21-10 at halftime at UCLA, you're honored at midfield during the half with your College Football Hall of Fame plaque...the crowd goes crazy........and then the team you fought, bled, and cried for goes out and lays an egg....again....at home. I would be upset to Tommie. Whether they agree with you or not, make no mistake, Husker Nation is listening.

Finally...SOME STATS TO CONTEMPLATE ON:

  • I did some in-depth research this morning comparing the worst losses in Osborne's, Solich's, Callahan's, and Pelini's tenures. It's one thing to look at a Wins-Loss record, but I believe you have to look deeper. So I charted each coach's season at Nebraska that includes their end of season record, who their worst loss was to, but more importantly...what the point differential was in those losses. Which means, in that seasons worst loss, how badly were we getting beat?

  1. In Tom Osborne's 25 years, his teams averaged giving up 13.28 points in their worst losses, with his worst loss coming in 1990 to Oklahoma where Nebraska lost 10-45.
  2. In Frank Solich's 6 years, his teams averaged giving up 20.33 points in their worst losses, with his worst loss coming in 2002 to Kansas State where Nebraska lost 13-49.
  3. In Bill Callhan's 4 years, his teams averaged giving up 35 points in their worst losses, with his worst loss coming in 2004 to Texas Tech where Nebraska lost 10-70.
  4. Up to 2012 in Bo Pelin's 5 years, his teams averaged giving up 27.6 points in their worst losses, with his worst coming last year in 2012 to Wisconsin where Nebraska lost 31-70.



TOM OSBORNE’S NEBRASKA RECORD:

YEAR RECORD WORST LOSS THAT SEASON POINT DIFF.

1973 9-2-1 Oklahoma 0-27 (-27pts)

1974 9-3 Oklahoma 14-28 (-14pts)

1975 10-2 Oklahoma 35-10 (-25pts)

1976 9-3-1 Missouri 24-37 (-13pts)

1977 9-3 Oklahoma 7-38 (-31pts)

1978 9-2 Alabama 3-20 (-17pts)

1979 10-2 Tie - Oklahoma & Houston 14-17 (-3pts)

1980 10-2 Tie – Florida State & Oklahoma (-4pts)

1981 9-3 Clemson 15-22 (-7pts)

1982 12-1 Penn State 24-27 (-3pts)

1983 12-1 Miami 30-31 (-1pt)

1984 10-2 Oklahoma 7-17 (-10pts)

1985 9-3 Oklahoma 7-27 (-20pts)

1986 10-2 Colorado 10-20 (-10pts)

1987 10-2 Oklahoma 7-17 (-10pts)

1988 10-2 Miami 3-23 (-20pts)

1989 10-2 Florida State 17-41 (-24pts)

1990 9-3 Oklahoma 10-45 (-35pts)

1991 9-2-1 Miami 0-22 (-22pts)

1992 9-3 Washington 14-29 (-15pts)

1993 11-1 Florida State 16-18 (-2pts)

1994 13-0 NONE – NATIONAL CHAMPS! (N/A)

1995 12-0 NONE – NATIONAL CHAMPS! (N/A)

1996 11-2 Arizona State 0-19 (-19pts)

1997 13-0 NONE – NATIONAL CHAMPS! (N/A)

Average point differentials in worst losses = (-13.28pts)

FRANK SOLICH’S NEBRASKA RECORD:

YEAR RECORD WORST LOSS THAT SEASON POINT DIFF.

1998 9-4 Kansas State 30-40 (-10pts)

1999 12-1 Texas 20-24 (-4pts)

2000 10-2 Oklahoma 14-31 (-17pts)

2001 11-2 Colorado 36-62 (-26pts)

2002 7-7 Kansas State 13-49 (-36pts)

2003 10-3 Kansas State 9-38 (-29pts)

Average point differentials in worst losses = (-20.33pts)

BILL CALLAHAN’S NEBRASKA RECORD:

YEAR RECORD WORST LOSS THAT SEASON POINT DIFF.

2004 5-6 Texas Tech 10-70 (-60pts)

2005 8-4 Kansas 15-40 (-25pts)

2006 9-5 USC 10-28 (-18pts)

2007 5-7 Kansas 39-76 (-37pts)

Average point differentials in worst losses = (-35pts)

BO PELINI’S NEBRASKA RECORD:

YEAR RECORD WORST LOSS THAT SEASON POINT DIFF.

2008 9-4 Missouri 17-52 (-35pts)

2009 10-4 Texas Tech 10-31 (-21pts)

2010 10-4 Washington 7-19 (-12pts)

2011 9-4 Wisconsin 17-48 (-31pts)

2012 10-4 Wisconsin 31-70 (-39pts)

Average point differentials in worst losses = (-27.6pts)

IN CLOSING:

I think there are a few things Nebraska fans can agree on; We don't mind losing, we can take a loss...we really can. However, what is unacceptable is what I would describe as trending losses that embarrass the program. Last year's Wisconsin & Ohio State games come to mind, and now so too does Saturday's UCLA game. Not just because of the way in which we lost, but also because of the national audience that watched it happen.

When you boil everything down to the nuts & bolts, Nebraska fans just want two things out of their football program:

  1. To Be Competitive In Every Game
  2. To Be Consistently Relevant On The National Stage (Top 10, Top 15)


Anyway, I hope you enjoyed this post and found it informative. I look forward to the discussion. Keep your head up Husker fans...GO BIG RED!

 
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Apologies if the stat chart is hard to read. It did not format correctly when I entered the post. But if you look close enough you'll get the general gist of it. Enjoy your Sunday everyone!

 
The problem with averaging is that more data points are inevitably going to reduce the end result. So let's give each coach the same amount of data points and throw Callahan out of the discussion. Bo has five data points and averages a biggest lost total of -27.6

Now let's look at the coach he's invariably compared to, Tom Osborne:

1973: Oklahoma 0-27 (-27)

1974: Oklahoma 14-28 (-14)

1975: Oklahoma 35-10 (-25)

1976: Missouri 24-37 (-13)

1977: Oklahoma 7-38 (-31)

That's an average of -22

 
Excellent post, The Duke. +1.

Some thoughts of my own to supplement what you said. Offensively, I'm a huge fan of Nebraska's offense, but it craps the bed a couple games a year and a couple times a game. They are littered with experience, have a second team all-American on the offensive line and some extremely talented skill position players. But, year-to-year, Nebraska showcases the exact same issues. Inconsistent line blocking, mental mistakes from skill positions (dropped passes/fumbles) and an inability to show that any adjustments are being made. Nebraska has played good teams with really good players, but watching Nebraska play over the last few years, I walk away from most losses thinking they did far more to lose that game than the other team did to beat them. Those teams did make great plays, so I'm not trying to take anything away from them. Just ask yourself - how often do you walk away from a Husker loss and think the Huskers did everything they could have, but got beat by the better team? I very rarely think that. UCLA, for example, was easily beatable. Wisconsin was, imho, a worst team than us last year. Ohio State was a little better, but not by much.

Losses that shouldn't happen will happen. That's football. But they happen to Nebraska way more than they should.

Defensively, it's the exact same thing. How many people thought NU's defense played amazing in the first 15-20 minutes of that football game? There were some screw-ups, but man did they look good. Then adversity hit, which happens in most football games, and they crapped the bed. It's like they were in quicksand and the more they fought, the quicker they sank. Some of this can be chalked up to inexperience, but I must again remind everyone that these defensive meltdowns are no new occurrence. They've been relevant for a few years now. Players have come and gone, mistakes say the same. That is coaching.

Overall, and I've said this in other threads, Nebraska's problems are not at the QB position. It's not on the lines. It's not with the turnovers. It's not dropped passes. It's not turnovers.

It's mental. There are so many problems on this team, so many big problems, that it all comes back to discipline, mental fortitude and preparedness. I believe, like others believe, you play how you practice. You practice how your coach tells you to practice. At the end of this year, if Nebraska is still experiencing the mental weakness, the first thing that has to be done is coordinator evaluation. This is probably the best choice at the present time. I hate to say it, but these issues weren't as relevant with Carl Pelini, but grew significantly worse after he left. Shawn Watson's offenses had different and similar issues to Nebraska's current one. Coordinators can make a big impact. The other option, of course, is Pelini's job being at stake. I'm not prepared to look at that yet, but we have to look the quality of losses more-so than the losses themselves.

The way they lose now is nothing like the way they lost when Pelini first got here. Nebraska can't handle success and has a battered mentality. This falls entirely on the coaches, so something has to be done in this arena if things remain constant.

 
Enhance89 said:
Some of this can be chalked up to inexperience, but I must again remind everyone that these defensive meltdowns are no new occurrence. They've been relevant for a few years now. Players have come and gone, mistakes say the same. That is coaching.

Overall, and I've said this in other threads, Nebraska's problems are not at the QB position. It's not on the lines. It's not with the turnovers. It's not dropped passes. It's not turnovers.
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Regarding defensive meltdowns, if by a "few" years, you mean the past two seasons, then ok. I do not think we made the same mistakes when we had a defense loaded with talent. I recognize the lack of talent is on Pelini. As far as the offensive problems, I agree dropped passes are not an issue......the rest of what you wrote, I do not agree with. I think they are issues.
 
Good post by "the Duke."

"If you cannot block and cannot tackle, you cannot win the game, no matter how good the rest of the players are."-------My High School Football Coach

Blocking and tackling should be a part of every practice, every day.

 
Enhance89 said:
It's mental. There are so many problems on this team, so many big problems, that it all comes back to discipline, mental fortitude and preparedness. I believe, like others believe, you play how you practice. You practice how your coach tells you to practice. At the end of this year, if Nebraska is still experiencing the mental weakness, the first thing that has to be done is coordinator evaluation. This is probably the best choice at the present time. I hate to say it, but these issues weren't as relevant with Carl Pelini, but grew significantly worse after he left. Shawn Watson's offenses had different and similar issues to Nebraska's current one. Coordinators can make a big impact. The other option, of course, is Pelini's job being at stake. I'm not prepared to look at that yet, but we have to look the quality of losses more-so than the losses themselves.

The way they lose now is nothing like the way they lost when Pelini first got here. Nebraska can't handle success and has a battered mentality. This falls entirely on the coaches, so something has to be done in this arena if things remain constant.
Click to expand...
I completely agree with you on the mental thing. I listened to Damon Benning on the post-game radio show, and he made a fabulous point that the way players play & respond to adversity correlates directly to their head coach's & position coach's personality & demeanor both on and off the field.

Think of the stories we have heard over the years from former Osborne players talking about how calm he would be at the half when things wouldn't be going right. Think what kind of effect that would have on young 18-22 year old players.

Don't get me wrong, there are times when Bo's fire & tenacity are great, but there are other times where he tends to be a loose cannon to which the message he is trying to get across to his players is lost in the noise.

As I said in the original post, Nebraska fans can take a loss, but what we want to see from the team is a competitive effort and a willing drive to never quit. We also want to see our coaches have the ability to make necessary changes on the fly both during game time and at the half.

I'm not calling for pink slips yet, but I also am not in disagreement with others who say the coaches should at least now consider themselves on the hot seat.

 
Wow, great post and I agree with everything you said and thank you for the chart. Looking at that, I realize what a disaster Callahan was, how Solich got screwed for the most part, how incredible Tom Osborne was (still remember that Penn State game where they beat us by catching that pass 5 feet out of bounds:( and how looking at Pelini's record over the past 5 years, I see the no improvement and that is what really scares me.

You combine the lack of "getting better" with the blow-out losses, meltdowns and lack of identity on both sides of the ball and I don't see how we move forward with him as the HC? And people keep saying, but he is still winning and posting 9 or 10 wins but we also play 2-3 cream-puffs each year, can't beat a ranked team, embarrass ourselves in national TV games and have a coaching staff that says they "don't know?" when asked what the problems are.

Obviously, Pelini will coach out the rest of the year, but in my mind, if he loses 2-3 more games and posts another 9-4 or 10-4 season, I think it's going to be an interesting summer...that would be 6 years of no improvement:(

 
An offense doesn't have to choose between power and finesse. I'm not even sure what people mean by "finesse." Passing plays?

There aren't many teams that can simply declare their intention to run the ball between the tackles. Those great Husker rushing offenses came behind one of the best offense lines in the land, and a recruiting strategy that supported a pipeline, year after year. Those great Husker rushing offenses also passed more than some folks remember, and no one had cuter trick plays than Tom Osborne. And the triple option that powered our running game was actually complicated as hell, and required what could only be described as finesse. And yes, when many of those Osborne teams lined up agains opponents who could match them in strength, our offense got exposed as one dimensional.

I honestly don't think the problem is in the offensive scheme, and the notion of identity is overrated.

I do think that some teams have a defensive identity, and it's to be a defensive-minded team. When Pelini came in I thought that WAS our identity. Defense first. Defense nasty. And let that rub off on the offense, whatever they decide to run.

The problem is a teamwide loss of mojo. They are capable of running plays and schemes beautifully. Until their confidence gets shaken. Which happens far to easily.

That, I'm afraid, goes to head coaching.

 
Glad I clicked to read. Thanks.

I coach tennis and am a distance runner. I have seen some great tennis players come and go but the good players have a coach at the academy that train the kids with mental toughness. As well, I see myself growing in mental toughness in every run as I stress the legs out and then push the mind further to endure the pain of the body.

Thus, I think I relate or can see the mental weakness rather well.

 
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Excellent post. Two things stand out:

1. Many things in live are affected by what goes on between one's ears. How one handles the ups and downs of life.

2, and this is so very true - you perform like you practice

 
We may find out if replacing the head coach every 6 seasons is the key to success.......possibly coach #4 since TO.

 
The Duke said:
Enhance89 said:
It's mental. There are so many problems on this team, so many big problems, that it all comes back to discipline, mental fortitude and preparedness. I believe, like others believe, you play how you practice. You practice how your coach tells you to practice. At the end of this year, if Nebraska is still experiencing the mental weakness, the first thing that has to be done is coordinator evaluation. This is probably the best choice at the present time. I hate to say it, but these issues weren't as relevant with Carl Pelini, but grew significantly worse after he left. Shawn Watson's offenses had different and similar issues to Nebraska's current one. Coordinators can make a big impact. The other option, of course, is Pelini's job being at stake. I'm not prepared to look at that yet, but we have to look the quality of losses more-so than the losses themselves.

The way they lose now is nothing like the way they lost when Pelini first got here. Nebraska can't handle success and has a battered mentality. This falls entirely on the coaches, so something has to be done in this arena if things remain constant.
Click to expand...
I completely agree with you on the mental thing. I listened to Damon Benning on the post-game radio show, and he made a fabulous point that the way players play & respond to adversity correlates directly to their head coach's & position coach's personality & demeanor both on and off the field.

Think of the stories we have heard over the years from former Osborne players talking about how calm he would be at the half when things wouldn't be going right. Think what kind of effect that would have on young 18-22 year old players.

Don't get me wrong, there are times when Bo's fire & tenacity are great, but there are other times where he tends to be a loose cannon to which the message he is trying to get across to his players is lost in the noise.

As I said in the original post, Nebraska fans can take a loss, but what we want to see from the team is a competitive effort and a willing drive to never quit. We also want to see our coaches have the ability to make necessary changes on the fly both during game time and at the half.

I'm not calling for pink slips yet, but I also am not in disagreement with others who say the coaches should at least now consider themselves on the hot seat.
Click to expand...
I'm on this mental train as well. Now, we have to look Bo and honestly say that as the days go by, he is getting (are at very least, acting) calmer and calmer. Things like the joke he played on the team, trying to get them to relax. He even said in the post game presser he wished the guys would have some more fun playing. As I slept on this game a second night, I'm getting the thought that maybe he has identified this problem and is dealing with it, but that it's gonna take a little time to correct. Case in point, the older players are so used to the uptightness and fire that they just seem a little tight yet. Proof? Taylor Martinez. He comes right out as the same old Taylor. Overthrowin open receivers on the opening drive and such. He just seemed like a deer-in-the-headlights on the bigger stage again. It's just a deal where I wonder if the older guys are just too far gone to be loosened up, you know? I re-watched the game twice now, and I saw glimpses of brilliance in that first half on defense. I really did. I'm not nearly as doom and gloom as I was saturday and even yesterday. But there are still some major MAJOR psychological issues that need to be addressed. And it cant be this offseason, it has to be now.

 
Composure: the state or feeling of being calm and in control of oneself........

If your head coach doesn't have this, then it trickles down to the rest of the team. Seen too many times the wheels come off when the going gets tough. He has the mentality of a D coordinator, not a head coach. Nothing I like seeing more than when a team goes in a 14-0 slump and the coach is clapping and encouraging players to get it going. Does he always have to be a hoo-ray guy? Absolutely not, but this is one of the problems he hasnt changed since arrival. Even at the Wyoming game he was giving fans the ol' get out of here waive. UNREAL to me

 
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