The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

[Mierin]

Initial reports seemed to indicate that mortality was greatest at 65 & over. I think when we look back on this we're going to see that wasn't quite true, and led to a lot of false optimism from younger people.

I don’t think that’s going to be the case. I haven’t seen any evidence yet to suggest mortality isn’t greater at 65 and up and everyone reporting mortality rates by age is still saying the mortality rate is higher the older you are. However there will probably be more cases for younger age groups because there are more of them currently alive. Boomers and Millennials are close in #s right now and more than half of the Boomers are under 65 still. In addition to that, people younger than 65 may be more likely to get the virus because they probably aren’t as strictly adhering to precautionary measures. 

Here’s the latest from CDC. It will change but I don’t think the rate is going to end up being higher for younger people.

What is added by this report?

This first preliminary description of outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85, ranging from 10% to 27%, followed by 3% to 11% among persons aged 65–84 years, 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, <1% among persons aged 20–54 years, and no fatalities among persons aged ≤19 years.

 

[teachercd]

I’m all for helping other countries, but take care of your own first.  This confirms the denial this administration had over a potential pandemic.  Cluelessness at its finest. 

I have said this over and over and was ripped for saying it.  

I bet now everyone is agreeing with what you just said and with what I was saying before...funny how that works.  

 

[Nebfanatic]

I’m all for helping other countries, but take care of your own first.  This confirms the denial this administration had over a potential pandemic.  Cluelessness at its finest. 

I understand helping them but we should have had a plan in place to replace that stockpile. But instead we do the exact opposite

 

[Mierin]

If you look at NYC reporting only 672 deaths in the month of March to COVID19 I think it's vastly under-reporting at the state and federal level.  The hospitals there are running out of places to put the dead bodies...they're renting refrigerator trucks to stash them in.

The average deaths per day in NYC is 420.  I doubt that 672 extra deaths due to COVID19 over a few weeks could cause what hospitals are seeing.

I think the numbers are VASTLY larger.  I don't want the to be...I just think they are.

You may be right.

But keep in mind since this has exponential growth, the #s were likely very low for the first 2-3 weeks in March. 

I am sure there are deaths due to the virus where they aren’t listing it as the cause of death though. 

 

[Decoy73]

I have said this over and over and was ripped for saying it.  

I bet now everyone is agreeing with what you just said and with what I was saying before...funny how that works.  

I agree. About a month ago I posted concerns on another thread about COVID threatening the sellout streak and FB season. I got a face palm and essentially a dismissal in response. Makes you want to go back and say I TOLD YOU SO.  

 

[RedDenver]

I’m all for helping other countries, but take care of your own first.  This confirms the denial this administration had over a potential pandemic.  Cluelessness at its finest. 

I have said this over and over and was ripped for saying it.  

I bet now everyone is agreeing with what you just said and with what I was saying before...funny how that works.  

The best way to deal with a potential pandemic is at the source. It's how SARS, MERS, and a bunch of ebola outbreaks have been stopped. The issue wasn't with sending tons of medical supplies to China, it was the failure to immediately ramp up production.

 

[knapplc]

I agree. About a month ago I posted concerns on another thread about COVID threatening the sellout streak and FB season. I got a face palm and essentially a dismissal in response. Makes you want to go back and say I TOLD YOU SO.  

That's a natural human response, but of course it never does any good.

When they banned students & fans from attending Boy's State here in Lincoln, there were a bunch of people ripping into the decision and saying something about some concert at PBA that was still on that night. One guy in particular, a coach from a south Nebraska high school, posted something about his son going to the concert and I responded something to the effect of, "Maybe your son shouldn't go to the concert, my man."

HOO BOY did that elicit a bunch of negative reactions from a bunch of coaches who are buddies with this guy around the state. I ended up muting the thread rather than read all the responses.  I'm guessing all those guys are doing PE remotely with their students right now and realize staying home was the better option, but going back to that thread and saying ITYS wouldn't do any good. Besides, those guys do not need to hear something like that from some rando internet dude like me.

Besides, it's not like any of us are immune to dumb hot takes.  A week or two ago I made a dumb post about the stock market and @Guy Chamberlin pointed out why it was dumb. A little while later I acknowledged my dumbness, and he was gracious about it.  That's the best you can hope for.

 

[deedsker]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/1244053944554401800

 

[Decoy73]

he issue wasn't with sending tons of medical supplies to China, it was the failure to immediately ramp up production.

The issue is sending it while lacking the foresight to make sure you are prepared yourself, which clearly we were not. That’s my point.  And this is China.  Not some much less traveled Middle East (MERS) or African (Ebola) country.  To think that it wasn’t going spread fast with all the commerce going through China is pure idiocy. 

 

[RedDenver]

The issue is sending it while lacking the foresight to make sure you are prepared yourself, which clearly we were not. That’s my point.

Then we agree.

And this is China.  Not some much less traveled Middle East (MERS) or African (Ebola) country.  To think that it wasn’t going spread fast with all the commerce going through China is pure idiocy. 

What? If China doesn't get an outbreak under control, then it becomes much, MUCH worse for the rest of the globe. China not only has the largest population but is also the major manufacturing hub for the world. Not sending supplies to help any nation trying to contain an outbreak is pure idiocy on our part.

 

[Decoy73]

What? If China doesn't get an outbreak under control, then it becomes much, MUCH worse for the rest of the globe. China not only has the largest population but is also the major manufacturing hub for the world. Not sending supplies to help any nation trying to contain an outbreak is pure idiocy on our part

So you’re saying it’s ok to send them supplies when we don’t have enough of said supplies should it reach us?

 

[Nebfanatic]

So you’re saying it’s ok to send them supplies when we don’t have enough of said supplies should it reach us?

If you have the competence to start stockpiling supplies as soon as you even think about sending them any yes. It's more than ok, it's getting ahead of the virus before it even reaches your soil. It makes complete sense as long as you then immediately begin preparing for it to reach your country. 

 

[Decoy73]

If you have the competence to start stockpiling supplies as soon as you even think about sending them any yes. It's more than ok, it's getting ahead of the virus before it even reaches your soil. It makes complete sense as long as you then immediately begin preparing for it to reach your country. 

Exactly. And that’s my whole point from my original post on this. We failed on the preparation part and that was likely do the administration’s ignorance.  

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

It's a bit baffling because Trump sending American supplies to China is the kind of thoughtful gesture our America First President never makes. Also, the kind of gesture we might have lauded in Obama, being both humanitarian and preventative. 

Trump can't brag about his generosity in this case because it's the kind of thing his base abhors. Imagine if Barack Obama had sent our live saving gear to China while Americans died. 

Fascinating how many different ways one President can keep f#&%ing up. 

 

[Nebfanatic]

Exactly. And that’s my whole point from my original post on this. We failed on the preparation part and that was likely do the administration’s ignorance.  

Right but I think the point Red Denver is making is that the move to send equipment to China is actually good in and of itself, the mistake is in not replacing that equipment and producing even more.