The Way Too Early 2028 Election

[Dr. Strangelove]

It did, however, inspire the largest television buy for the Trump campaign (Kamala is for They. Trump is for You) and was often weighted equally among GOP grievances, alongside the economy, immigration, and foreign wars. That was on the Trump campaign. The Democrats actually did take Strangelove's advice and threw transgender issues under the bus during the Harris campaign, but the GOP already controlled the non-issue and capitalized on the base's fondness for demonizing the vulnerable.  

Really good point. The number one attack ads ran by the Trump campaign focused on woke stuff. And to the credit of Democrats, they mostly abandoned it as a platform piece after the 2022 midterms. But not using terms like "Latinx' wasn't enough; the labels were already super damaging. A candidate is going to have to actively distance themselves from the woke movement.

The issues that voters disliked about Harris was:

1) Blamed Democrats for inflation

2) Harris was too similar to Joe Biden

And a distant 3) using words associated (vaguely) with LGTBQ/Trans movement

A new candidate can quite easily fix all three of those. And I don't mean to see that a candidate should actively disparage LGTBQ people, they just should avoid taking unpopular positions on that particular culture war issue.

 

[teachercd]

Really good point. The number one attack ads ran by the Trump campaign focused on woke stuff. And to the credit of Democrats, they mostly abandoned it as a platform piece after the 2022 midterms. But not using terms like "Latinx' wasn't enough; the labels were already super damaging. A candidate is going to have to actively distance themselves from the woke movement.

The issues that voters disliked about Harris was:

1) Blamed Democrats for inflation

2) Harris was too similar to Joe Biden

And a distant 3) using words associated (vaguely) with LGTBQ/Trans movement

A new candidate can quite easily fix all three of those. And I don't mean to see that a candidate should actively disparage LGTBQ people, they just should avoid taking unpopular positions on that particular culture war issue.

It is funny because it is so simple and everything you say is true.

 

[Archy1221]

Candidate for president yes...

President?? Might be a stretch

He may run, but would be a big underdog.  Even his own state disavowed his politics. 

 

[Archy1221]

I think it's pretty clear that Gavin Newsome wants to run, but Democrats aren't going to let him. 

It's quite clear, to me, that the nominee is going to be Josh Shapiro. In fact, I'm more confident that Shapiro will get the nod than I was about Trump winning (which I was confident in).

You can look for him to start making speeches distancing himself from the current Democrat structure where he'll say things similar to my previous posts.

As of now I think he is your best option and I really really really hope your folks here continue to disagree with you on the postmortem.  

 

[Archy1221]

California is becoming more red

Republicans need to do what Democrats are attempting to do in Texas by putting the time and effort into reaching out.   Nominate very moderate candidates for CA and start from the ground up.   Make it a 20 yr process 

invest knowing you will lose early on but hope it makes a difference in the long run 

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

Republicans need to do what Democrats are attempting to do in Texas by putting the time and effort into reaching out.   Nominate very moderate candidates for CA and start from the ground up.   Make it a 20 yr process 

invest knowing you will lose early on but hope it makes a difference in the long run 

I personally hope to see more candidates like Dan Osborne in states like Nebraska. The current Democratic Party isn't going to be that successful here outside of NE-02, but there is room for true moderate candidates. Lets spread the concept around to states with a stranglehold on them via their state party. (I'm looking at you, New Jersey).

It is funny because it is so simple and everything you say is true.

To be fair, these aren't just my opinions. I'm basing this off of very smart political people I follow. Both national writers and personal friends that are still heavily involved in Political Science. 

 

[Apsu]

No, if you read my post, I wanted Republican's to nominate Donald Trump and the crazies that try to imitate him.

That's because the crazies that imitate him don't do so successfully, and they lose what should be unlosable elections in an environment that massively favors Republican candidates. Why would I want Republicans to nominate Mitt Romney for him to win like 400 electoral college votes and have Republicans control a filibuster-proof Senate, on top of a 50 seat house majority with state legislatures that are unbreakable?  

As a Democrat, I cannot tell you how thankful I am that Herschel Walker ran for Senate in Georgia instead of somebody who can string a few sentences together, or that Kari Lake will end up fumbling yet another election in a red state. So please, whatever you do, keep the MAGA dream alive post Trump.

Unfortunately for me I did read your post. A win is bad, if the bad guys are doing the winning.

Nikki Haley and Mitt Romney are garbage, basically the same as Bill & Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and d!(k & Liz Cheney... the only difference is abortion... the issue that the Dems talk about but do nothing.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

End of the day, it seems like this election was about masculinity. Not just the disrespecting women and hating trans people part, but the bigger alpha male vibe that men fix things, that strong men are just naturally better leaders, and Donald Trump must be that guy because he says and does whatever he wants. The eggheads and weaklings hate him, but that only proves the point. It's a swagger that must appeal to women, too, as Trump got 46% of the women vote and Harris actually did worse among women than Joe Biden in 2020. 

Combine this with the vague memory of life being better before COVID, and recalling that Donald Trump was President back then, and there's your comeback.

But Democrats will have to step away from the mysteries of Donald Trump to consider why both young people and women did not turn out in droves in 2024, and in fact stayed away by the millions. 

 

[Archy1221]

But Democrats will have to step away from the mysteries of Donald Trump to consider why both young people and women did not turn out in droves in 2024, and in fact stayed away by the millions. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna179019

Trump picked up a larger proportion of voters under 30 than any Republican presidential candidate since 2008, according to NBC News exit polling, improving with both young men and young women. In 2020, President Joe Biden beat Trump by 11 percentage points among young men; this year, Trump beat Kamala Harris by 2 points. Among young women, Biden’s 35-point lead over Trump in 2020 shrunk to a 24-point lead for Harris. Among young white men without college degrees, Trump beat Harris, 56% to 40%. 

Researchers at Tufts University’s Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement saw similar trends. 

This year, “it’s not the case that young people overwhelmingly supported Democrats,” said Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, the center's director. 

 

[hskrpwr13]

End of the day, it seems like this election was about masculinity. Not just the disrespecting women and hating trans people part, but the bigger alpha male vibe that men fix things, that strong men are just naturally better leaders, and Donald Trump must be that guy because he says and does whatever he wants. The eggheads and weaklings hate him, but that only proves the point. It's a swagger that must appeal to women, too, as Trump got 46% of the women vote and Harris actually did worse among women than Joe Biden in 2020. 

Combine this with the vague memory of life being better before COVID, and recalling that Donald Trump was President back then, and there's your comeback.

But Democrats will have to step away from the mysteries of Donald Trump to consider why both young people and women did not turn out in droves in 2024, and in fact stayed away by the millions. 

Very black/white way to look at it. There is probably something to your stance, but just like other things like how physically attractive one finds a candidate, its a vast minority of voters who don't vote based on policy or overall agenda of the party. 

As one example, might there be some Whites (the majority) or heterosexuals (vast majority) whom have become tired of hearing from the further left that they're "bad" and non-Whites and non-heterosexuals are all "good" or "victims" (like some MSM/psyches likes to propagate)? 

I think Trump one despite his rhetoric, not because of it.

 

[Lorewarn]

its a vast minority of voters who don't vote based on policy or overall agenda of the party. 

Nah, man. This is a subjective and anecdotal perspective, but the data points to the vast majority of people essentially voting just based on vibes. 

As one example, might there be some Whites (the majority) or heterosexuals (vast majority) whom have become tired of hearing from the further left that they're "bad" and non-Whites and non-heterosexuals are all "good" or "victims" (like some MSM/psyches likes to propagate)? 

And here you've just proved it. This has zero to do with policy, this is just an aggrieved vibe.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

Very black/white way to look at it. There is probably something to your stance, but just like other things like how physically attractive one finds a candidate, its a vast minority of voters who don't vote based on policy or overall agenda of the party. 

As one example, might there be some Whites (the majority) or heterosexuals (vast majority) whom have become tired of hearing from the further left that they're "bad" and non-Whites and non-heterosexuals are all "good" or "victims" (like some MSM/psyches likes to propagate)? 

I think Trump one despite his rhetoric, not because of it.

Eh, didn't mean to be black & white. Too much s#!t swirling around to make any declarative claims. But there does seem to be a masculine vibe running through a lot of the pushback and rhetoric, even among women interviewed at Trump rallies. Old school autocrats are trending globally at the moment. 

I think Trump's rhetoric has a lot to do with his popularity. Even among folks who agree he goes over the top, his ability to frame issues and lay blame in memorable ways has sticking power. 

 

[hskrpwr13]

Nah, man. This is a subjective and anecdotal perspective, but the data points to the vast majority of people essentially voting just based on vibes. 

And here you've just proved it. This has zero to do with policy, this is just an aggrieved vibe.

I think you're conflating "vibes" (to me defined as "feelings") with agenda. "Wokeness," using the example I provided above is not a feeling, its part (not all) of the liberal agenda and platform (maybe the more extremist liberals). You could argue that doesn't mean its the "Democrat" platform, but just like Republic and Conservative are pretty well linked, so it is with Democrat and Liberal.

 

[hskrpwr13]

Eh, didn't mean to be black & white. Too much s#!t swirling around to make any declarative claims. But there does seem to be a masculine vibe running through a lot of the pushback and rhetoric, even among women interviewed at Trump rallies. Old school autocrats are trending globally at the moment. 

I think Trump's rhetoric has a lot to do with his popularity. Even among folks who agree he goes over the top, his ability to frame issues and lay blame in memorable ways has sticking power. 

i agree with the perception of masculinity with the election and how that perception of Trump's rhetoric is attractive to some, especially among what I classify as the more low-brow segments of society. But while how people fell about their finances will likely always be the top voting reason, I do think an increased disdain with identify politics overshadowed any Trump offensiveness in that space.

 

[Lorewarn]

 how people fell about their finances will likely always be the top voting reason

Like I said, vibes, which you mostly accurately defined as feelings.

I do think an increased disdain with identify politics overshadowed any Trump offensiveness in that space.

Agreed, more vibes. Disdain is a strong feeling.