The "way too early" Preseason 2012 Top 25

Blackshirt316 said:
Wisconsin may actually even be way high if Montee Ball also decides to leave for the pros. Losing Ball, Wilson and Toon isn't going to be a quick replacement job.

They have no QB and though James White is a good back he's not going to carry that team alone. And that doesn't even take into account that they are thin at Tackle and Mike Taylor also could leave early.
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hmmm that sounds familiar....people said literally the exact same things last year.

2011 Preseason assessment of UW said:
Wisconsin lost two offensive lineman including LT Gabe Carimi and LG John Moffitt. The Badgers lost three of its top four receivers leaving only WR Nick Toon as the viable receiving threat. Toon had 36 catches for 459 yards and three touchdowns last season. The defense was ranked No. 2 in the Big Ten Conference thanks in part to DE J.J. Watts who led the team with 7.0 sacks last season. Watts, along with linebackers Blake Sorensen and Culmer St. Jean accounted for 190 tackles last season, leaving lots of concern for the middle of the defense.

Even for Wisconsin, with the system often meaning more than the players, losing QB Scott Tolzien, RB John Clay, TE Lance Kendricks, OT Gabe Carimi, and DE J.J. Watt is a problem. Last year's team came up with one great win - Ohio State - and beat up on the weak and the sad the rest of the way. In other words, the big, bad, giant might have been full of bluster, and this year it's without several key reasons for last year's success. Yes, the team did reload and should be fine, but the defensive line will be good, but it won't be as strong without Watt.

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I get what you're saying but there are a few things to keep in mind...

  • Ball is gone but Junior James White will step up big time. He rushed for 1052 yards and 14 TD's as a freshman backup and Big Ten Freshman of the year in 2010. Here's a fun thought experiment, the last three UW RB's (Hill, Clay & Ball) have shown a 19% increase in yards and a 31% increase in TD's from their freshman to junior years. Apply that to White and you get 1250 yards and 18 TD's...while those aren't quite Ball numbers they're still higher than what Hill and Clay accomplished. But you say he can't carry the team? Why do you think that? Because he's small and speedy? Sure but right behind him is Sophomore James Lewis who's just as big as Ball was. Running Back will be just fine...
  • You say Wisconsin doesn't have a QB like its a bad thing or somehow reason for concern, it isn't. If you've watched Wisconsin football pre-Wilson you'd know that with UW's system QB is more of a game managing short dump's and handoff position. Outside of last week's CCG, we don't live and die on the pass, never have and never will. In the past six years UW has started six different QB's (Stocco, Tolzien, Donovan, Wilson, Sherer and Evridge). Fitting this pattern JR Jon Budmayr looks to start, he's had time to learn the system and looks to be a smart leader of Bielema's offense.
  • We lose Toon. Also not a big deal. Last year we lost Kendricks, Gilreath and Anderson. Kendricks was by far a better reciever (though at TE) than Toon was. We lived and we prospered in 2011. Abbrederis will be back as a Sophomore he posted just 8 yards and 2TD's fewer than Toon. Pederson and Duckworth will also be back. Receiving will not be hurting.
  • Thin at tackle? Explain because I don't see it.
  • Why do you say Taylor is leaving? Simply because he's a junior? I haven't heard a single thing about him leaving early.

The Schedule is also conducive to preparing those new starters for an overall favorable slate of Big Ten play.

Northern Iowa Panthers

at Oregon State Beavers

Utah State Aggies

UTEP Miners

at Nebraska Cornhuskers (probable loss)

Illinois Fighting Illini

at Purdue Boilermakers

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Michigan State Spartans

at Indiana Hoosiers

Ohio State Buckeyes (probable win)

at Penn State Nittany Lions (probable win)

I doubt we'll win the Big ten but we should get at least a 9 win season and we could be back to Indy.
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Badgerfan said:
Blackshirt316 said:
Wisconsin may actually even be way high if Montee Ball also decides to leave for the pros. Losing Ball, Wilson and Toon isn't going to be a quick replacement job.

They have no QB and though James White is a good back he's not going to carry that team alone. And that doesn't even take into account that they are thin at Tackle and Mike Taylor also could leave early.
Click to expand...
hmmm that sounds familiar....people said literally the exact same things last year.

2011 Preseason assessment of UW said:
Wisconsin lost two offensive lineman including LT Gabe Carimi and LG John Moffitt. The Badgers lost three of its top four receivers leaving only WR Nick Toon as the viable receiving threat. Toon had 36 catches for 459 yards and three touchdowns last season. The defense was ranked No. 2 in the Big Ten Conference thanks in part to DE J.J. Watts who led the team with 7.0 sacks last season. Watts, along with linebackers Blake Sorensen and Culmer St. Jean accounted for 190 tackles last season, leaving lots of concern for the middle of the defense.

Even for Wisconsin, with the system often meaning more than the players, losing QB Scott Tolzien, RB John Clay, TE Lance Kendricks, OT Gabe Carimi, and DE J.J. Watt is a problem. Last year's team came up with one great win - Ohio State - and beat up on the weak and the sad the rest of the way. In other words, the big, bad, giant might have been full of bluster, and this year it's without several key reasons for last year's success. Yes, the team did reload and should be fine, but the defensive line will be good, but it won't be as strong without Watt.

​











I get what you're saying but there are a few things to keep in mind...

  • Ball is gone but Junior James White will step up big time. He rushed for 1052 yards and 14 TD's as a freshman backup and Big Ten Freshman of the year in 2010. Here's a fun thought experiment, the last three UW RB's (Hill, Clay & Ball) have shown a 19% increase in yards and a 31% increase in TD's from their freshman to junior years. Apply that to White and you get 1250 yards and 18 TD's...while those aren't quite Ball numbers they're still higher than what Hill and Clay accomplished. But you say he can't carry the team? Why do you think that? Because he's small and speedy? Sure but right behind him is Sophomore James Lewis who's just as big as Ball was. Running Back will be just fine...
  • You say Wisconsin doesn't have a QB like its a bad thing or somehow reason for concern, it isn't. If you've watched Wisconsin football pre-Wilson you'd know that with UW's system QB is more of a game managing short dump's and handoff position. Outside of last week's CCG, we don't live and die on the pass, never have and never will. In the past six years UW has started six different QB's (Stocco, Tolzien, Donovan, Wilson, Sherer and Evridge). Fitting this pattern JR Jon Budmayr looks to start, he's had time to learn the system and looks to be a smart leader of Bielema's offense.
  • We lose Toon. Also not a big deal. Last year we lost Kendricks, Gilreath and Anderson. Kendricks was by far a better reciever (though at TE) than Toon was. We lived and we prospered in 2011. Abbrederis will be back as a Sophomore he posted just 8 yards and 2TD's fewer than Toon. Pederson and Duckworth will also be back. Receiving will not be hurting.
  • Thin at tackle? Explain because I don't see it.
  • Why do you say Taylor is leaving? Simply because he's a junior? I haven't heard a single thing about him leaving early.

The Schedule is also conducive to preparing those new starters for an overall favorable slate of Big Ten play.

Northern Iowa Panthers

at Oregon State Beavers

Utah State Aggies

UTEP Miners

at Nebraska Cornhuskers (probable loss)

Illinois Fighting Illini

at Purdue Boilermakers

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Michigan State Spartans

at Indiana Hoosiers

Ohio State Buckeyes (probable win)

at Penn State Nittany Lions (probable win)

I doubt we'll win the Big ten but we should get at least a 9 win season and we could be back to Indy.
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Did you know we were in the Rose bowl? 1941 and 2002, we lost to Standford and Miami.

 
Badgerfan said:
Ohio State Buckeyes (probable win)
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The Badgers couldn't beat an Ohio State team in complete disarray this year. Next year you lose 11 seniors including Wilson and you see that as a probable win?

Just what exactly are they putting in Milwaukee's Best these days?

 
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Muck said:
Badgerfan said:
Ohio State Buckeyes (probable win)
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The Badgers couldn't beat an Ohio State team in complete disarray this year. Next year you lose 11 seniors including Wilson and you see that as a probably win?
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Probable but not definite, I reserve a right to amend my predictions as the season goes on.

I'm not worried about the losses, we had them just as bad last year and as you've probably noticed OSU teams haven't fared too well in Madison recently. Twice in the past year or so you all have come into town with #1 teams expecting a win and it hasn't really panned out.

 
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If we win the bowl game we will be preseason top 10. We would be an 11-2 team returning about 34/44 of our 2 deep and getting our Heisman candidate RB back.

 
It won't be a night game in Madison since the game is in November.

First time since 2002.

Sounds like we won't have too many opportunities for Night Games. At home the only one with potential is Nebraska. I guess we can have night games @MSU or @PSU but I think Sparty would rather have the ND game be at night.

 
Badgerfan said:
I'm not worried about the losses, we had them just as bad last year and as you've probably noticed OSU teams haven't fared too well in Madison recently. Twice in the past year or so you all have come into town with #1 teams expecting a win and it hasn't really panned out.
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Ohio State is 2-2 in the last four games in Wisconsin. Not exactly a huge home field advantage for the Badgers. Wisconsin has actually had more success in Columbus against the Buckeyes than they have at home.

Basketball results are completely meaningless.

 
Muck said:
Badgerfan said:
I'm not worried about the losses, we had them just as bad last year and as you've probably noticed OSU teams haven't fared too well in Madison recently. Twice in the past year or so you all have come into town with #1 teams expecting a win and it hasn't really panned out.
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Ohio State is 2-2 in the last four games in Wisconsin. Not exactly a huge home field advantage for the Badgers. Wisconsin has actually had more success in Columbus against the Buckeyes than they have at home.

Basketball results are completely meaningless.
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Lets switch it up....you're a team with a brand new head coach, a brand new O-Line, a 19 year old QB and you went 6-6 last year only having won a single road game.

You're going into town to meet a team that in the past two years has gone 22-4, beat visiting opponents by an average of 36 points, won the conference twice, and hasn't lost a home game in the final weeks of the season in what will be 7 years.

You see that as a definite win for your team?

I don't.

I'm being generous by casting doubt on that game. Take it as a compliment. If I thought for sure we'd win it'd be Blue.

 
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Badgerfan said:
Muck said:
Badgerfan said:
I'm not worried about the losses, we had them just as bad last year and as you've probably noticed OSU teams haven't fared too well in Madison recently. Twice in the past year or so you all have come into town with #1 teams expecting a win and it hasn't really panned out.
Click to expand...
Ohio State is 2-2 in the last four games in Wisconsin. Not exactly a huge home field advantage for the Badgers. Wisconsin has actually had more success in Columbus against the Buckeyes than they have at home.

Basketball results are completely meaningless.
Click to expand...
Lets switch it up....you're a team with a brand new head coach, a brand new O-Line, a 19 year old QB and you went 6-6 last year only having won a single road game.

You're going into town to meet a team that in the past two years has gone 22-4, beat visiting opponents by an average of 36 points, won the conference twice, and hasn't lost a home game in the final weeks of the season in what will be 7 years.

You see that as a definite win for your team?

I don't.
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i dont think he said definite but i think even without urban meyer ohio state would beat wisconsin next season. i know you think wisconsin will just reload and you may be right but conventional wisdom says otherwise and will have wisconsin finish at about 7-5 and ranked somewhere around #45. Ohio st was young and inexperienced this season and have a qb that will probably be top 3 in the big next season as well as one of the overall most athletic teams in the conference and will be the favorite to win the leaders division.

so i would say its not a definite win (no game is) but it is a probable win for ohio st.

 
husker B-rent said:
Badgerfan said:
Muck said:
Badgerfan said:
I'm not worried about the losses, we had them just as bad last year and as you've probably noticed OSU teams haven't fared too well in Madison recently. Twice in the past year or so you all have come into town with #1 teams expecting a win and it hasn't really panned out.
Click to expand...
Ohio State is 2-2 in the last four games in Wisconsin. Not exactly a huge home field advantage for the Badgers. Wisconsin has actually had more success in Columbus against the Buckeyes than they have at home.

Basketball results are completely meaningless.
Click to expand...
Lets switch it up....you're a team with a brand new head coach, a brand new O-Line, a 19 year old QB and you went 6-6 last year only having won a single road game.

You're going into town to meet a team that in the past two years has gone 22-4, beat visiting opponents by an average of 36 points, won the conference twice, and hasn't lost a home game in the final weeks of the season in what will be 7 years.

You see that as a definite win for your team?

I don't.
Click to expand...
i dont think he said definite but i think even without urban meyer ohio state would beat wisconsin next season. i know you think wisconsin will just reload and you may be right but conventional wisdom says otherwise and will have wisconsin finish at about 7-5 and ranked somewhere around #45. Ohio st was young and inexperienced this season and have a qb that will probably be top 3 in the big next season as well as one of the overall most athletic teams in the conference and will be the favorite to win the leaders division.

so i would say its not a definite win (no game is) but it is a probable win for ohio st.
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I don't see 5 losses....show me where and why

 
Badgerfan said:
WoodyHayes1951 said:
hmm.....Doesn't State lose Kurt Cousins?

Who's their replacement?
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Yep both him and Cunningham

Replacement looks to be Maxwell
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don't forget Keyshawn Martin (good WR and a beast on P/K returns) and maybe Worthy, they will be really good on defense and their new starter at QB could be really good, physically more gifted than Cousins but inexperienced, I also think Michigan is too high, we should probably be around 15-20, there will probably be a drop off on defense with the loss of Martin, Van Bergen and Heininger, the opening games could be really tough for both Michigan (Bama) and MSU (Boise St.), with a tough game with ND after that for both, both teams could have 2 losses headed into conference play...

 
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