TO's recruiting and current trends

[lo country]

As recruiting is about to finish in a flurry, I found this article about TO recruiting and the current trends. It really points to losing out on guys like Chase Allen to Iowa St. Great stats and shows the not just the down turn of NU recruiting, but the overall down turn in "talent" in the 500 mile radius.

A little long, but shows what appear to be articulable facts that NU faces in the recruiting battles.

http://dataomaha.com/documents/husker-recruiting-changes-shrink-nus-sphere-of-influence

be warned, its from 2013 and Chatelain.... Still a good read.

 

[cm husker]

I actually just read that today. And it was interesting statistically. A bit of while back, I ran similar numbers, but haven't published them yet. I found that besides the 500 mile radius, Texas was very important to NU. Now that we aren't in the corridor of the b8/b12, I think NU needs to shift focus to the east, where kids would understand they have a chance to play near home at least once or twice a year.

What is the new "Texas"? Ohio? Illinois, particularly around Chicago?

 

[HuskerPowerVA]

Nice article in depth and stats that captures some of the things we have pondered here.

 

[DomiNUs]

It will be interesting to see how Riley stacks up with recruiting in the 500 mile radius after a few years.

I think the change in recruiting philosophies between coaches are what's holding the numbers of recruits within 500 miles down.

 

[HuskerPowerVA]

I think so too. But I also think as the world has changed, so has recruiting. The world is smaller, but conferences are larger, both in terms of membership and geography. In addition to the 500-mile radius effort, I believe N should tap into the eastern talent pool, just north of the SEC...Virginia, Maryland, NJ/NY, due to conference presence without a dominant program in the area.

The other variable is there are more schools and less scholarships than years ago. Kids who would have walked-on 25 years ago are now getting full rides elsewhere. Look at the state of Texas. Years ago, Baylor, Houston and TCU were not competing for top tier talent.

As mentioned in the article, social media makes it easier to reach out, touch (not Harbaugh creepy touch now) and connect with kids further away. There is no hiding the diamonds in the rough any longer.

 

[Saunders]

I think so too. But I also think as the world has changed, so has recruiting. The world is smaller, but conferences are larger, both in terms of membership and geography. In addition to the 500-mile radius effort, I believe N should tap into the eastern talent pool, just north of the SEC...Virginia, Maryland, NJ/NY, due to conference presence without a dominant program in the area.

The other variable is there are more schools and less scholarships than years ago. Kids who would have walked-on 25 years ago are now getting full rides elsewhere. Look at the state of Texas. Years ago, Baylor, Houston and TCU were not competing for top tier talent.

As mentioned in the article, social media makes it easier to reach out, touch (not Harbaugh creepy touch now) and connect with kids further away. There is no hiding the diamonds in the rough any longer.

Interestingly, on this weeks Pick Six podcast, Sam Mckewon said NU has traditionally struggled in most of those states, and questioned whether it was worth the effort, especially with OUS/UM/PSU hitting those states hard. His pov was we should focus on California (which is this staff's specialty) and get back into Texas (I don't believe we have a single Texas guy yet).

 

[cm husker]

I think mckewon misses the point in that NU will never be able to do more than cherry pick guys from California. Relying on 25%+ to come from there is a recipe for mediocrity, imo.

Back in the big 8 days, it made sense to attack a "circle", but really, the shape was more oblong. I need to pull the additional numbers but it wouldn't surprise me that at least half of the players outside of the 500 sq mile circle were from Texas.

I don't know if we can make enroads back into Texas now that we don't play in Norman and Stillwater at least once a year. Texas may be like Cali now.

Recruiting is a long game. Developing HS coach relationships may take 4 to 8 years. To me, that's the most disruptive thing about a coaching change and a big reason you don't pull a trigger unless you have to.

But along those same lines, part of why we haven't had traditional success in the east/mid Atlantic was that we didn't have a good story to tell kids who were from there and had no interest in playing zero games within 1500 miles of their home.

Now, NU can tell that story, and it may make sense to push east to the coast, especially if it drains talent from conference opponents.

I know that people loved the move to the B10 and in some ways it made sense, but I actually think it hurt NU badly in some important ways (e.g., hit the reset button on recruiting relationships, required a retooling of the defensive system, etc).

 

[I AM FOOT FOOT]

I think mckewon misses the point in that NU will never be able to do more than cherry pick guys from California. Relying on 25%+ to come from there is a recipe for mediocrity, imo.

Back in the big 8 days, it made sense to attack a "circle", but really, the shape was more oblong. I need to pull the additional numbers but it wouldn't surprise me that at least half of the players outside of the 500 sq mile circle were from Texas.

I don't know if we can make enroads back into Texas now that we don't play in Norman and Stillwater at least once a year. Texas may be like Cali now.

Recruiting is a long game. Developing HS coach relationships may take 4 to 8 years. To me, that's the most disruptive thing about a coaching change and a big reason you don't pull a trigger unless you have to.

But along those same lines, part of why we haven't had traditional success in the east/mid Atlantic was that we didn't have a good story to tell kids who were from there and had no interest in playing zero games within 1500 miles of their home.

Now, NU can tell that story, and it may make sense to push east to the coast, especially if it drains talent from conference opponents.

I know that people loved the move to the B10 and in some ways it made sense, but I actually think it hurt NU badly in some important ways (e.g., hit the reset button on recruiting relationships, required a retooling of the defensive system, etc).

yep the lack of linebackers didn't do Nebraska any favors in our first years in the big. you need to stop the run here to have any success. something N really wasn't built to do or need to do a lot when in the big 12. the Suh years are the exception.

 

[cornographic]

Win and they will come...

 

[lo country]

Win and they will come...

I think this is the key. Granted, Bama as an example, is a lot closer to most of their recruits home than an away for NU, but Tuscaloosa is nothing to look at. Nor is Oxford Miss and some other winning programs.

We win and kids will come here. I hate to marginalize things, but winning covers a multitude of sins i.e. geography, distance, town, facilities etc.... We haven't won anything of note since the recruits were babies. Some not even born. I can't even get the visions of Wisky running over us out of my head...

I also think that we have to really develop a relationship with the schools in NE and nearby. We can't afford to jet the limited talent pool go to other schools in the conference or Iowa St (Allen). Its hard to get a kid and family to come on their own dime if they have to fly, get a hotel etc......

Unsure the answer, but at least we seem to be getting a few "bigger" names.

Sobering stats about what we are up against though.

 

[cornographic]

Win and they will come...

I think this is the key. Granted, Bama as an example, is a lot closer to most of their recruits home than an away for NU, but Tuscaloosa is nothing to look at. Nor is Oxford Miss and some other winning programs.

We win and kids will come here. I hate to marginalize things, but winning covers a multitude of sins i.e. geography, distance, town, facilities etc.... We haven't won anything of note since the recruits were babies. Some not even born. I can't even get the visions of Wisky running over us out of my head...

I also think that we have to really develop a relationship with the schools in NE and nearby. We can't afford to jet the limited talent pool go to other schools in the conference or Iowa St (Allen). Its hard to get a kid and family to come on their own dime if they have to fly, get a hotel etc......

Unsure the answer, but at least we seem to be getting a few "bigger" names.

Sobering stats about what we are up against though.

Well, Sparty's recruiting has bumped up significantly, especially this year--11 4* guys. They've just been winning more and in the CCGs. Riley isn't exactly a hot commodity in terms of name, but I think he and the staff are quality coaches and doing things the right way. It'll take them a bit of time to establish the relationships they need in the various targeted regions, but winning, getting in the conversation, the limelight will accelerate things big time. I was thinking we had a pretty good shot at the CCG in '16, but since MC and VV are gone, now I'm not so sure. Defense is a ? again.

 

[cm husker]

If the argument is that we need better recruits to win and more wins to recruit, how does that work?

I think NU has solid to great talent right now. They certainly did in '15. and NU was winning between '08 and '14 and pulled down about the same level of talent as they did under solich and maybe a little better than under Callahan and about the same as what this staff is off too.

but let's assume that we do recruit 5 extra NFL draftees per 4 year recruiting cycle. Is that really going to take NU from 6-7 to even .700 to what appears to be the lowest acceptable benchmark of .800+ with championships? I don't know about that. But I doubt it, if we continue to just try to win by doing what others are doing.

NU needs to go back to being different. Unique.

And to recruiting, I don't think winning will make a big difference (it might in the eyes of the recruitniks, who tend to base current and Future predictions on past results).

What would make a difference is getting back to the program culture of continuity, loyalty and family. That's why, although I don't see Riley working out for a lot of reasons, I sure hope he does. Because NU doesn't have a lot of uniqueness left. Continuity and faith/loyalty in a staff that wins a solid amount of games would be a refreshing throwback after canning two .700+ coaches.

 

[cm husker]

Win and they will come...

I think this is the key. Granted, Bama as an example, is a lot closer to most of their recruits home than an away for NU, but Tuscaloosa is nothing to look at. Nor is Oxford Miss and some other winning programs.
We win and kids will come here. I hate to marginalize things, but winning covers a multitude of sins i.e. geography, distance, town, facilities etc.... We haven't won anything of note since the recruits were babies. Some not even born. I can't even get the visions of Wisky running over us out of my head...

I also think that we have to really develop a relationship with the schools in NE and nearby. We can't afford to jet the limited talent pool go to other schools in the conference or Iowa St (Allen). Its hard to get a kid and family to come on their own dime if they have to fly, get a hotel etc......

Unsure the answer, but at least we seem to be getting a few "bigger" names.

Sobering stats about what we are up against though.

Well, Sparty's recruiting has bumped up significantly, especially this year--11 4* guys. They've just been winning more and in the CCGs. Riley isn't exactly a hot commodity in terms of name, but I think he and the staff are quality coaches and doing things the right way. It'll take them a bit of time to establish the relationships they need in the various targeted regions, but winning, getting in the conversation, the limelight will accelerate things big time. I was thinking we had a pretty good shot at the CCG in '16, but since MC and VV are gone, now I'm not so sure. Defense is a ? again.

How many of those kids got bumped because they were MSU recruits this year. In other words, are they empirically better than recruits to MSU from three years ago? I doubt it. But the services rate based on a programs perceived ability to recruit good talent, and that's based on past results.

I'm not saying that winning won't help, but it may be as much based on perception of the program as anything. Kind of like NU getting a big bump by the services back in '94-'97 after winning with classes from the 20s and 30s.

 

[cornographic]

If the argument is that we need better recruits to win and more wins to recruit, how does that work?

I think NU has solid to great talent right now. They certainly did in '15. and NU was winning between '08 and '14 and pulled down about the same level of talent as they did under solich and maybe a little better than under Callahan and about the same as what this staff is off too.

but let's assume that we do recruit 5 extra NFL draftees per 4 year recruiting cycle. Is that really going to take NU from 6-7 to even .700 to what appears to be the lowest acceptable benchmark of .800+ with championships? I don't know about that. But I doubt it, if we continue to just try to win by doing what others are doing.

NU needs to go back to being different. Unique.

And to recruiting, I don't think winning will make a big difference (it might in the eyes of the recruitniks, who tend to base current and Future predictions on past results).

What would make a difference is getting back to the program culture of continuity, loyalty and family. That's why, although I don't see Riley working out for a lot of reasons, I sure hope he does. Because NU doesn't have a lot of uniqueness left. Continuity and faith/loyalty in a staff that wins a solid amount of games would be a refreshing throwback after canning two .700+ coaches.

Riley and Co. seem to have all the right values and running the program in the right way if you ask me. I was impressed with the offensive system and the defense seemed to improve over the season, albeit we had a lot of youth in the 2ndary. This staff has beaucoup continuity and loyalty, right, so we're covered there. I dunno, it's getting to where there aren't tons of options out there in the coaching world, that is, coaches that I think could do a better job. This staff looks competent to me, we could have easily had 9-10 wins this year. I hate to say it, but a few of those losses we squarely on TA's shoulders, especially the IA game, which we should have won by 7-10 points had it not been for the INTs.

I think we have enough talent right now to win the division, though MC and VV staying would have made me feel better about things going into '16. It's only winning the division and at least getting to the CCG with some regularity that will give us a bump in recruiting. Winning against good teams in bowl games also helps. Winning cures all things. Now, if we go 6-6, or 7-5 next year, then I don't know what to tell you, I expect us to win at least 9 games next year.

But we will have to get to where we are top heavy with 4* recruits, like 8,9,10+ of them if we want to get back into the top 10-15 on a regular basis. Winning is the only way I see that happening.

 

[cornographic]

Win and they will come...

I think this is the key. Granted, Bama as an example, is a lot closer to most of their recruits home than an away for NU, but Tuscaloosa is nothing to look at. Nor is Oxford Miss and some other winning programs.
We win and kids will come here. I hate to marginalize things, but winning covers a multitude of sins i.e. geography, distance, town, facilities etc.... We haven't won anything of note since the recruits were babies. Some not even born. I can't even get the visions of Wisky running over us out of my head...

I also think that we have to really develop a relationship with the schools in NE and nearby. We can't afford to jet the limited talent pool go to other schools in the conference or Iowa St (Allen). Its hard to get a kid and family to come on their own dime if they have to fly, get a hotel etc......

Unsure the answer, but at least we seem to be getting a few "bigger" names.

Sobering stats about what we are up against though.

Well, Sparty's recruiting has bumped up significantly, especially this year--11 4* guys. They've just been winning more and in the CCGs. Riley isn't exactly a hot commodity in terms of name, but I think he and the staff are quality coaches and doing things the right way. It'll take them a bit of time to establish the relationships they need in the various targeted regions, but winning, getting in the conversation, the limelight will accelerate things big time. I was thinking we had a pretty good shot at the CCG in '16, but since MC and VV are gone, now I'm not so sure. Defense is a ? again.

How many of those kids got bumped because they were MSU recruits this year. In other words, are they empirically better than recruits to MSU from three years ago? I doubt it. But the services rate based on a programs perceived ability to recruit good talent, and that's based on past results.

I'm not saying that winning won't help, but it may be as much based on perception of the program as anything. Kind of like NU getting a big bump by the services back in '94-'97 after winning with classes from the 20s and 30s.

Yeah, I'm familiar with the "bump" theory and some of that does go on. I don't think it's the rule, though. I think Rivals, et al do a pretty damn good job and are pretty damn accurate. There is a strong correlation between their recruiting rankings and poll rankings. That is, the teams that are getting all the good players are consistently ranked high in the polls. No Mystery. You have to have competent coaching, of course.

Sparty, well, they have tended to recruit at about the same level or lower than us over the past 5-7 years or so, but this year, in particular, they've scored a really good class. What's changed? They've been in the CCG, what, 2 of the last 3 years and won both of those. They've also beaten some high profile teams in the past few years, namely OSU, Baylor, and they were in the playoff this year. They have been high profile.

Winning cures all things.