Nothing PC about my comments - your attitude is why women and men do not come forward after sexual assault, when clowns like you place blame on them for what they wear, where they go, who they talked to.
- 80% of rapes or assaults are not reported because of you and your ilk. That's a fact.
- Nearly 1 in 10 women has been raped by someone she knows. That's a fact.
- 1 in 5 women is raped in college. That's a fact.
- 1 in 16 men is sexually assaulted in college. That's a fact.
- Rape being reported falsely is somewhere between 2 and 10%. That's of the 20% that are actually reported - Fact.
Calling you ignorant was kind, I was assuming you were just not aware of the facts. It's apparent you are and have made a conscious decision so I'd choose another word now. Instead I'll make changes on my end so as not to have to be witness to your views.
I generally agree with the sentiment but the data has been skewed higher and is being treated as gospel. Some of your numbers are a gross exaggeration. I don't blame you at all as these have been told so many times people just stopped questioning them. Maybe this is better suited in a different forum but I think it is relevant here.
tl;dr The numbers are bad enough already so why do people inflate them? It just distracts from the discussion.
This is not a statement on whether the two players are right or wrong, just a missive pointing out a few issues with some generally accepted "truths" from the greater debate. Questioning the validity of numbers is not an argument that no issue exists, only to question the voracity of the claims from the data in question. That way we can have the same conversation and make progress without disagreeing on the facts.
The internet can not be trusted. Do your own research people. Please.
Here is a link to the 2019 survey the numbers are pulled from:
https://www.aau.edu/sites/default/files/AAU-Files/Key-Issues/Campus-Safety/FULL_2019_Campus_Climate_Survey.pdf
"80% of rapes or assaults are not reported because of you and your ilk. That's a fact. "
That comes from
this BJS report and is an extrapolated opinion. Unfortunately, proving a negative is notoriously difficult. At best it is an educated guess but it is certainly not a fact.
"1 in 5 women is raped in college. That's a fact."
- That is not a fact. That is a conflation of any unwanted touching and penetration, at best, from the 2015 version of this survey. The numbers are up a bit in the 2019 iteration over 2015. 15.3% reported unwanted touching, 10% reported unwanted penetration or an attempt at such (this is interesting only because it is the only time an 'unsuccessful attempt' is mentioned in the data set that I could find. 2.5% of female respondents were in both categories.
The numbers from the
BJS across all sexual assault categories for that age range is actually 6.1/1000 per year from 1995-2013, including men and women. Even if that is only 20% of actual (given the claim of 80% unreported) then you are at 30.5/1000. You would still need another 656% increase to make it to 200/1000. This is simply an absurd claim.
"Nearly 1 in 10 women has been raped by someone she knows. That's a fact. "
- That is not a fact. Perhaps this is just poorly worded. The majority (~85% of respondents) are victims of someone they know. So I am left to believe we have abandoned the college scope and entered the US as a whole. The current reported US rape rates are about 2.1(female age 12+) per 1000 in a given year, and has been trending down for decades. This makes things much more difficult as focusing on what has happened in a roughly 4 year window and opens up a whole can of worms. Using 2010 census data there are 117282036 women over 18. We have sexual assault data for 12+ but no census data for 12+. Using the 12+ number would only strengthen the 1 in 10 argument. Also using the assault BJS data from 1990 of 3/1000 ( worst number in the past 30 years I could find that wasn't estimated), and multiplying by 5 to grant the 80% argument, it would still take almost 67 years to hit 10% of the eligible population assuming no duplicates in the data. That does indicate a possibility that 1 in 10 women (over 18) may be raped in their lives. This is where most people just stop looking. But we can't forget that includes rape and unwanted touching numbers. The majority of those numbers are unwanted touching independent of rape. To err high I will assume half of those claims are rape. That changes it to 1 in 20 that a woman might be raped. Then, using the college survey, we can use ~85% having known their attacker, the number supporting that statement change to 1 in 26. That is the most favorable number I can come up with to support the statement "Nearly 1 in 10 women has been raped by someone she knows." and it is very generous.
Getting back to the college survey...
To me the most interesting part of the survey analysis being ignored was table A4.5 (Apendix 4-18). This table analyzed "Direction of non-response bias according to analysis of incentive groups for 10 outcome measures, by gender and affiliation status". It isn't made tangible in the result set but it is mathematically significant.
- Penetration by Physical Force or Inability to Consent. There is one significant difference. The difference for undergraduate females is negative, indicating the survey estimates is too high.
- Penetration or Sexual Touching without Ongoing Consent. There is one significant difference. The difference for undergraduate females is negative, indicating the survey estimates is too high.
- Intimate Partner Violence. There is two significant difference. The differences for undergraduate males and females are negative, indicating the survey estimates are too high.
Hopefully this was appreciated.