UPSET SPECIAL!

[Excel]

I'm pulling for Purdue hard. I think they can do it.

Also want Miami to beat K State. Miami is awful but I hate the kitties more.

Duke has enough returning starters to beat Stanford.

Florida, AM, UGA and MU are to hard for me to call. I can see UF losing though. Of course I see UW and Carolina winning. Don't think it'll be close in either.

NU is on upset alert, UCLA looked good.

 

[HuskerShark]

NU is on upset alert, UCLA looked good.

 

[Notre Dame Joe]

Few games I'm looking at:

New Hampshire @ Minnesota

East Carolina @ South Carolina

Florida @ Texas A&M

Washington @ LSU

North Dakota State @ Colorado State

So Minnesota, South Carolina, Florida, LSU, and Colorado State are on my upset alert for this week. Although I think, South Carolina, Minnesota, and LSU are going to win.

New Hampshire over NW under OC Chip Kelly was the unthinkable upset before UM introduced the country to Appalachia St.

 

[NUance]

In the ESPN Colleg Football Pick'em thingy, I picked:

Texas A&M over Florida

Purdue over Notre Dame

I feel fairly confident in both of those picks.

Believe it or not, aTm is favored over Florida. My theory is that there is a ton of aTm money bet on that game, pushing the point spread way higher than it should be towards aTm. No way that aTm should be favored over Florida.

As for Purdue, I'd *really* like to see that upset come true. /sorry ND Joe. :lol:

 

[krc1995]

regarding the nebraska game- I expected the point spread to be much greater. Usually this mean something bad.

In my pick 'em I have a$m(maybe just hopeful) and Miami.

 

[RedRedJarvisRedwine]

regarding the nebraska game- I expected the point spread to be much greater. Usually this mean something bad.

In my pick 'em I have a$m(maybe just hopeful) and Miami.

I think people in Vegas have been taking it in the shorts with NU over the last few years and are either leaving this game alone, still having not drunk the koolaid or just even money on this game! Watch the line starting around 4:00 on Saturday! I'm guessing this line finishes around 6-7 pts by game time! I don't think Rex is keeping this line flat, but bettors looking up uclas first game and just seeing the score may be over reacting to that performance! If this line stays where it is, I will be making alot of money!!$$$$$

 

[RedRedJarvisRedwine]

This weekend my upset special is the battle of the dorks!

Doook over that dumb a$$ tree

27 - 24 ! On the road!

Suck it Andrus!

 

[NUance]

regarding the nebraska game- I expected the point spread to be much greater. Usually this mean something bad.

In my pick 'em I have a$m(maybe just hopeful) and Miami.

I think people in Vegas have been taking it in the shorts with NU over the last few years and are either leaving this game alone, still having not drunk the koolaid or just even money on this game! Watch the line starting around 4:00 on Saturday! I'm guessing this line finishes around 6-7 pts by game time! I don't think Rex is keeping this line flat, but bettors looking up uclas first game and just seeing the score may be over reacting to that performance! If this line stays where it is, I will be making alot of money!!$$$$$

The thing about point spreads is that they are not set at the expected outcome. They are set at a point designed to make half the money go one way, and half go the other. It seems like the spread is set at lower than the expected outcome, that is, a smaller margin than NU should win by. At least it seems that way to me. If true, this simply means that UCLA fans are more willing to bet on the Bruins despite the seeming low point spread, than NU fans are willing to bet on the Huskers.

 

[krc1995]

regarding the nebraska game- I expected the point spread to be much greater. Usually this mean something bad.

In my pick 'em I have a$m(maybe just hopeful) and Miami.

I think people in Vegas have been taking it in the shorts with NU over the last few years and are either leaving this game alone, still having not drunk the koolaid or just even money on this game! Watch the line starting around 4:00 on Saturday! I'm guessing this line finishes around 6-7 pts by game time! I don't think Rex is keeping this line flat, but bettors looking up uclas first game and just seeing the score may be over reacting to that performance! If this line stays where it is, I will be making alot of money!!$$$$$

What do you think the line should be? I guess i was drinking koolaid because I really 10 was about spot on

 

[krc1995]

regarding the nebraska game- I expected the point spread to be much greater. Usually this mean something bad.

In my pick 'em I have a$m(maybe just hopeful) and Miami.

I think people in Vegas have been taking it in the shorts with NU over the last few years and are either leaving this game alone, still having not drunk the koolaid or just even money on this game! Watch the line starting around 4:00 on Saturday! I'm guessing this line finishes around 6-7 pts by game time! I don't think Rex is keeping this line flat, but bettors looking up uclas first game and just seeing the score may be over reacting to that performance! If this line stays where it is, I will be making alot of money!!$$$$$

The thing about point spreads is that they are not set at the expected outcome. They are set at a point designed to make half the money go one way, and half go the other. It seems like the spread is set at lower than the expected outcome, that is, a smaller margin than NU should win by. At least it seems that way to me. If true, this simply means that UCLA fans are more willing to bet on the Bruins despite the seeming low point spread, than NU fans are willing to bet on the Huskers.

I have causally bet football games for years. My dad was some sort of amatuer bookie. He and a friend formed a joint business around the mid 80's to try make a computer program that would take the guess work out of the betting by crunching stats and numbers and whatever else. It was some sort of pre-sagarin thing on those giant computers with the floppy disks and the weird printers that had the big green and white paper. When I took a computer class in high school, I couldn't quite grasp what a spreadsheet was because too me, a spreadsheet was a list of football games with the betting odds. I have no idea why I'm telling you all this because really I'm not very good at it and now I just do for fun., One thing I have noticed is that when the line is materially different then what I think it should be, there may be a reason that I am not aware of or it is an indication that I maybe too emotionally involved(like my hate for ND and LSU). I usually stay from these games as I assume that the betting public knows something about the teams. It will be interesting to see how the Nebraska lines moves through tomorrow. My general betting strategy is that if the line moves in favor of the dog, I will usually take the dog.

 

[NUance]

regarding the nebraska game- I expected the point spread to be much greater. Usually this mean something bad.

In my pick 'em I have a$m(maybe just hopeful) and Miami.

I think people in Vegas have been taking it in the shorts with NU over the last few years and are either leaving this game alone, still having not drunk the koolaid or just even money on this game! Watch the line starting around 4:00 on Saturday! I'm guessing this line finishes around 6-7 pts by game time! I don't think Rex is keeping this line flat, but bettors looking up uclas first game and just seeing the score may be over reacting to that performance! If this line stays where it is, I will be making alot of money!!$$$$$

The thing about point spreads is that they are not set at the expected outcome. They are set at a point designed to make half the money go one way, and half go the other. It seems like the spread is set at lower than the expected outcome, that is, a smaller margin than NU should win by. At least it seems that way to me. If true, this simply means that UCLA fans are more willing to bet on the Bruins despite the seeming low point spread, than NU fans are willing to bet on the Huskers.

I have causally bet football games for years. My dad was some sort of amatuer bookie. He and a friend formed a joint business around the mid 80's to try make a computer program that would take the guess work out of the betting by crunching stats and numbers and whatever else. It was some sort of pre-sagarin thing on those giant computers with the floppy disks and the weird printers that had the big green and white paper. When I took a computer class in high school, I couldn't quite grasp what a spreadsheet was because too me, a spreadsheet was a list of football games with the betting odds. I have no idea why I'm telling you all this because really I'm not very good at it and now I just do for fun., One thing I have noticed is that when the line is materially different then what I think it should be, there may be a reason that I am not aware of or it is an indication that I maybe too emotionally involved(like my hate for ND and LSU). I usually stay from these games as I assume that the betting public knows something about the teams. It will be interesting to see how the Nebraska lines moves through tomorrow. My general betting strategy is that if the line moves in favor of the dog, I will usually take the dog.

Fortunately, in this case the line seems to be moving away from the dog. Started out around 4.5 now at 5.5 or 6. Which still seems low--to me anyway.

 

[RedRedJarvisRedwine]

regarding the nebraska game- I expected the point spread to be much greater. Usually this mean something bad.

In my pick 'em I have a$m(maybe just hopeful) and Miami.

I think people in Vegas have been taking it in the shorts with NU over the last few years and are either leaving this game alone, still having not drunk the koolaid or just even money on this game! Watch the line starting around 4:00 on Saturday! I'm guessing this line finishes around 6-7 pts by game time! I don't think Rex is keeping this line flat, but bettors looking up uclas first game and just seeing the score may be over reacting to that performance! If this line stays where it is, I will be making alot of money!!$$$$$

What do you think the line should be? I guess i was drinking koolaid because I really 10 was about spot on

I think if this was game 1 for both teams the spread would have opened around 10-13 pts. Which in my opinion tells me that Vegas was more impressed with UCLAs win than they were ours. NUance is right about how they come up with the opening lines. A perfect scenario for a bookie is to take 500k on each side of the spread push the action and take 25k in juice....... On one game!
I actually know of two local, we' ll call them "horse whisperers" and knowing they are always gonna get alot of action on horse named Nebraska , d!(k with the lines alot!

 

[Excel]

Go Blue Mormons beat the Red Mormons!

 

[Danny Bateman]

Go Blue Mormons beat the Red Mormons!

Screw that. Go Red Mormons. I've got money on the Red Mormons

 

[Excel]

Go Blue Mormons beat the Red Mormons!

Screw that. Go Red Mormons. I've got money on the Red Mormons

I hope it's not too much! Not looking so great at the moment.