Vegas Line v ISU

From rojo on another site:

Why we will beat Iowa State.

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In general... to win one must be better in two of the three areas: offense, defense, special teams.

We are.

I. Offense. Everyone’s offense will be better than ours from here on….

That's quite possible.

--The Pitt game underlined what we had already seen. We have no gamebreakers. There is no one to fear. At best we have an average O-line, with average receivers, an average Quarterback, and the way we are defended… an average running attack.

--The pattern is in place. Play our receivers man-to-man, bump them hard at the line-of-scrimmage, pinch the defense in to slow our running game. Blitz when you want---it works.

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II. Defense: One of the best in the Big 12.

--Give Callahan & Coz credit. They brought in the outside consultants in the winter. They changed the base alignment. They changed Elmo’s and Bush’s duties. And the young Blackshirts bought it all. They’re proud and playing with a comraderie that’s fun to see.

--After Spring ball Callahan said our D-line would be one of the best in the Big 12. There’s depth and constant rotation. The Linebackers are young, but fast---every one has an interception. The secondary has some questions, but with the strong play in front of them, they haven’t yet been exposed.

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III. Special Teams: Solid.

--Credit to Callahan & Bush. Last year’s problems were addressed by moving Special Teams practice-time to the middle of practice. More time and emphasis.

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IV. Iowa State and us: Comparable opponents through the first three games.

According to the latest Sagarin ratings…

--Iowa State has beat #49 Iowa, #91 Illinois State, & #142 Army.

--Nebraska has beat #71 Pitt, #92 Wake Forest, #168 Maine.

More-or-less comparable opponents---giving meaning to the following stats.

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V. Compare Defense Rankings:

--Total Defense: NU #6, ISU #40 (232 yds/game allowed vrs. 341 )

--Scoring Defense: NU #1, ISU #23 (5 points/game allowed vrs. 15)

--Rush Defense: NU #10, ISU #63 (79 yds/game allowed vrs. 131)

--Pass Efficiency Defense: NU #2, ISU #11

--Tackles-for-Loss: NU #1, ISU #40 (14/game vrs. 7/game)

--Third-Down Conversion Defense: NU #4, ISU #32 (22% vrs 31%)

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VI. Compare Special Teams Rankings:

--Net Punting: NU #4, ISU #39 (41 yards net vrs. 36)

--Punt Returns: NU #17, ISU #50 (15 yards vrs. 10)

--Kick-Off Returns: ISU #12, NU #14 (30 yards vrs. 28)

--Field Goals: NU 71% vrs. ISU 50% (5/7 vrs. 2/4)

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VII. Compare Offense Rankings:

--Total Offense: ISU #91, NU #107 (319 yards/game vrs. 271)

--Scoring Offense: ISU #58, NU #87 (28 pts/game vrs. 21)

--Rushing Offense: NU #62, ISU #88 (138 yards vrs. 111)

--Pass Efficiency: ISU #49, NU #115 (132 vrs. 78)

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VIII. The Bottom Line: We’re favored. And we should be.

--Last year Barney Cotton knew the strengths and weaknesses of our players as well as we did. It was in Ames, and we were a somewhat shaken team at that point. This year: No.

--Comparing stats has its limits. But when the message is consistent, one should listen. We’re favored, and we should be.

Just some things to think about....

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Last edited by rojo : Today at 07:27 AM.

 
if it is a close game, which i think everyone concedes......turnovers will decide it

+3 for NU would give us the game IMHO...assuming the offense has picked it up a notch, which we hope will be the case........ :thumbs

hunter

 
if it is a close game, which i think everyone concedes......turnovers will decide it+3 for NU would give us the game IMHO...assuming the offense has picked it up a notch, which we hope will be the case........ :thumbs

hunter
Click to expand...
I think we can win a close game without turnovers... didn't we just do that against Pitt?

 
Great post Roy, agree 100%.
Click to expand...
:yeah

Also agree with Hunter. If NU wins the turnover battle, they will win, I think it will be a close, hard-fought game by two teams that stack up pretty evenly.

 
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Right, we watch the turnovers and mistakes and we win. But there is one other point that hasn't been made. Expect Callahan to run the ball more. Our strength on offense is our running game. When we pass 60% of the time we throw an incompletion. And when you pass the ball half the time it's no wonder our offense is so ineffective. Face it we don't have the WR's yet. But our running game has gotten a little better with every game. We certainly are not going to give up throwing the ball but we will run more. Nunn and Hardy will continue to anchor our receivers and on occasion we will have a very good day passing the ball.

NU 21

ISU 3

 
Iowa State and Nebraska are similar this year. However, I think Iowa States offense is a lot more productive than ours. Each team thrives off of turnovers. Look at ISU against Iowa, and then compare that game to NU vs. Wake. I realize Iowa is a lot better team than Wake, but in each case the games were won due to turnovers.

I expect this to be a very low scoring ugly game unless there are quite a few turnovers. Against Pitt, I can't remember there being a turnover. I think we can expect similar scoring against ISU. It will come down to two things that will decide this game: turnovers and field position. Thank God, we have a punter that can boot the thing out of the stadium. Some may think penalties will decide the game, but unless it's ISU's penalties our punter can overcome a lot of our illegal formation penalties.

Iowa State is not a great team, and they probably are undeserving of their top 25 ranking. They showed how suspect of a team they are playing Army. More than anything, they showed how pitiful the Big 12 North really is along with Colorado against Miami. The Big 12 is really down this year. They say there is parity in college football, but I disagree. It's easy to pick out the teams that are head and shoulders above the rest across the country.

If I had to bet on this game given the Vegas spread, I'd pick ISU. I don't think they necessarily win this game, but I don't think NU will cover the spread. I expect a similar 7-6 or 9-7 score at the end of the game.

 
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