How about this, let's look at sure wins, sure losses, and unknowns. I realize sure wins and sure losses can be changed, but I see it like this. Sure wins include: Maine, Wake Forest, and Baylor. Sure losses include: Oklahoma. The rest I put in the unknowns. We could just as easily be 8-3 (i'm kicking out Big 12 championship game and bowl game) as we could be 3-8.
Pittsburgh will be tough, but they just hired a loser for coach so we could/should win this one. Iowa State could go either way, but I believe it's in Lincoln so that will help. How can you call TT a win when they put up the most points on NU than any other team in history? I lean towards a loss on the TT game. Missouri, who knows? It depends on which Brad Smith shows up. If the sophomore Brad Smith shows up, win for MU. If last year's B Smith shows up, easy win. Kansas is another unknown, but the game is in Kansas. I'm 50/50 on this one. Flip a coin. KState is still KState. It could go either way, but until proven otherwise I'll lean towards Snyder and the Wildcats. He is the only coach in the Big 12 with the ability to out coach Stoops IMO. Colorado is 50/50 like Kansas. I think we have a good chance of winning this one.
I think we have a good shot at being 6-5 next year. Maybe better if the team gels right away. Maybe worse if the learning curve is a lot greater than we or the coaches thought.