We may have to start winning
- Thread starter BoNeyard
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admo
Well-known member
Micheal
Well-known member
Lot some of the people in this thread I feel that all the crazy amounts of TV revenue for the B1G and SEC etc. will go away at some point. These television contracts aren't for every and I think that the money will go down at some point.
When that happens it will be interesting to see what occurs. Do the biggest schools in the B1G and SEC and ACC form their own new conference to get a big tv contract?
When this happens, and some schools get left behind I could see the return of more regional conferences.
Nebraska football definitely has enough of a following to stay important, but winning has to occur again to maintain it.
When that happens it will be interesting to see what occurs. Do the biggest schools in the B1G and SEC and ACC form their own new conference to get a big tv contract?
When this happens, and some schools get left behind I could see the return of more regional conferences.
Nebraska football definitely has enough of a following to stay important, but winning has to occur again to maintain it.
Undone
Well-known member
What would make the money just go away or even start to diminish, though?
The money exists because of a demand for college football. The demand for college football is met by the supply of college football being put on TV; that has just grown and grown over the decades.
So is something going to make the demand go down? I don't know. Maybe NIL will screw things up for the sport, but I doubt it. At least not any time soon.
Micheal
Well-known member
My thought is that television contracts as you know it will change.
These channels, ESPN, Fox Sports 1, Big Ten Network etc are being dropped periodically by Dish, Spectrum, Comcast etc. These television providers are losing customers like crazy. They are not wanting to keep paying out so much as their revenue from customers goes down.
I think streaming will be bigger than it already is for people. But so far streaming has not made companies the money they thought it would, ie Disney+, ESPN+ etc.
I think a contract like Apple offered the PAC 12 will be more common than what the B1G recently got. Smaller offers to the conferences equals smaller cut for each school. Then the chaos reigns.
NASCAR was huge in the 90s and early 2000s, and then it wasn't. That could happen to all sports I feel.
Undone
Well-known member
Good example. Now go google "NASCAR viewership by year."
I'm not trying to be a d!(k here at all. But that just happens to be a perfect example that backs up my angle of examining supply & demand of the product being sold. NASCAR viewership has gone down over the last decade, but I don't think it's because it's not accessible to people on TV if they want to view it.
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BigRedBuster
International Man of Mystery
There is no question that viewership of any sport, including college football, can go down and the money can decrease. Anyone that doesn't think that can happen, has their head in the sand.
I know NIL and the transfer portal is what players want and...great...now they have it. It will be interesting though to see what that does to the interest in the sport.
I know NIL and the transfer portal is what players want and...great...now they have it. It will be interesting though to see what that does to the interest in the sport.
Undone
Well-known member
Nobody said that anywhere. I asked Micheal:
If viewership starts to go down (like it has for NASCAR), there'll be less money to be made off of college football. Then the TV contract money diminishes.
Can that happen? Obviously. Will it any time soon? Who the **** knows; my crystal ball is in the shop.
Lorewarn
Well-known member
Even if viewership does go down, the size of the payouts we've been getting will absolutely go down eventually. It's not sustainable, especially for the B1G where a really good chunk of revenue comes from carrier fees for BTN on cable/satellite providers, who are only going to lose more and more customers.
soup
Well-known member
The amount of commercials to pay for all of these massive TV contracts will be the death of the massive TV contracts.
It has already been complained about by MANY about how there are way to many commercials and not enough football. The TV networks have to pay for these things some how, and if viewership drops because of that then look out.
It has already been complained about by MANY about how there are way to many commercials and not enough football. The TV networks have to pay for these things some how, and if viewership drops because of that then look out.
Micheal
Well-known member
Yeah NASCAR viership declined and then it became harder to watch for the masses. I know now sometimes races are on USA or FS1 which not as many people have. I don't know what the future of college football is either! hahah
The Cup Series in 2023 has gone down by 10% with half the season already completed. Although only a slight dip in the numbers for now, the numbers might go up with the season still yet to be completed.
The 2020 season was at an all-time low averaging just 3.06 million average viewers and picked up the pace in 2021 with 3.48 million average viewers.
- 2019 - 3.73 million
- 2018 - 3.3. million
- 2017 - 4.1 million
- 2016 - 4.6 million
- 2015 - 5 million
- 2014 - 5.3 million
- 2013 - 5.8 million
- 2012 - 5.8 million
https://sportslulu.com/nascar-viewership-by-year
Undone
Well-known member
Yep, and a couple rule changes will hopefully put at least a small dent in it.
I don't know anybody that has told me recently (or in the past) that they stopped watching football because there are too many commercials. Maybe the rest of you do, though.
inb4 somebody tells me that I just said that I love commercials and want more of them...I also dislike commercials.
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Micheal
Well-known member
Yeah hasn't bothered me too much as I'm going to watch no matter what probably haha.Yep, and a couple rule changes will hopefully put at least a small dent in it.
I don't know anybody that has told me recently (or in the past) that they stopped watching football because there are too many commercials. Maybe the rest of you do, though.
HuskerX
Banned
Wistrom Disciple
Well-known member
I think @Micheal was correct with how TV contracts will be viewed differently going forward. I think we're starting to see the tip of it this past year. Although viewership could grow, the money behind these networks will be reduced as more networks die off (RIP Longhorn Network :sarcasm ) or merge with current competitors. Thereby reducing competition and swinging negotiating power away from the conferences over time.
Thus your supply & demand argument has merit, but I think the wrong variables were used. Game viewership alone may not be the driving force behind conference payouts in the future. As @Lorewarn pointed out, the current model is simply unsustainable. Instead it might be more of a base payout plus viewership variable. That would benefit the big schools and fanbases, but be less good for the smaller bases. Should be fascinating to see how it unfolds.