DISCLAIMER
This was compiled for entertainment purposes only. I'm usually wrong.
ASU REALITY CHECK
-They'll be under-sized, over-powered and out-coached.
-ASU has an average quarterback (statistically).
-Their star players have underwhelming stats in big games.
-For example: Sun Belt superstar DE Alex Carrington averaged 4.4 tackles and a sack per game last year. However, in his career, he has yet to show up in a game against a BCS team:
-2008 Alabama = 0 sacks, 2 tackles
-2008 A&M = 0 sacks, 3 tackles
-2007 Texas = 0 sacks, 0 tackles
-2007 Tennessee = 0 sacks, 1 tackle
-2006 Oklahoma State = 0 sacks, 1 tackle
-Further hurting Alex's productivity is the fact that double-teaming him is not that costly...on the other side is a 6'1" 245 lb DE that managed just 1 sack last season. A guy that size is what Nebraska generally refers to as a 'linebacker'.
-ASU is 1-14 against the Big 12 (the only win coming against a 114th ranked A&M defense in 2008).
-ASU is a poor road team. They were 2-for-5 in road games last year and 0-for-6 in 2007. Last year, ASU squeaked by the 119th ranked defense of North Texas (5 points) and the 114th ranked defense of Texas A&M (4 points).
-As was the case with Rusty Smith and FAU, the Sun Belt's in-conference success stories don't necessarily translate to the big stage. We were supposed to get tested by one of the Sun Belt's best passing attacks last week, headlined by pro-prospect Rusty Smith: 15 of 31, 0 TDs, 2 INTs.
-The little guys who have a shot to knock off a ranked BCS team are typically the ones that consistently take care of business in their own conference (Boise State, Utah, TCU). Arkansas State does not meet the requirement by dominating their own conference. The Red Wolves are in the middle of the pack (pun intended) in a minor conference. They play aggressive defense with a solid running game, but lack the size and talent to go toe-to-toe with major conference teams. In 2007 they went 3-3 against Sun Belt competition.
-Arkansas State tuned up against a horribly underpowered MVSU team. See for yourself.
-Compare that to their game against Alabama last year, when they played scared and got overpowered in a definite role reversal. Check it out.
NOT SO BOLD PREDICTION
On defense, Nebraska will have a bit more time to get into the backfield than last week. Corey Leonard hangs on to the ball way too long to get through this game without taking some lumps. He is not an accurate enough passer to sit in the pocket and make plays with his arm all day. His indecisiveness will get him popped on more than one occasion, given Nebraska's speed up front. I still expect Pelini to play a fairly vanilla defense and hold off on blitzing. With Virginia Tech coming up next week, Nebraska still won't want to show too many cards.
Nebraska will challenge Leonard to throw the ball by clamping down hard on their offensive strength; the run game. Suh and the boys will take being called 'soft' seriously and dominate the ASU line in the first half. The Nebraska secondary will punish the undersized receivers on short routes, creating an environment for several dropped passes and some potentially easy picks over the middle.
- 3 Sacks
- 3 INTs
- 8 TFLs
On Offense, the Big Red will come out with an emphasis on the running game again. Against an ASU defensive line that averages 6'2" and 275 lbs a man, Nebraska should be able to create holes at will. Their line backers are bigger-bodied guys that seem a good fit for goal line situations, but don't move terribly well laterally. Roy Helu could have a huge day against this bunch with his quick cuts and acceleration.
Last year, ASU played four games against teams with a Top 50 running back (statistically). All were losses. Roy Helu should be a bigger challenge than any of those running backs this Saturday.
The last line of defense is a rangy, but underweight, secondary unit that may have trouble bringing down Nebraska's running backs, tight ends or wide receivers one-on-one. With ASU averaging under 6 ft 180 lbs at the corner spots, NU's wide receivers have a significant size advantage. Half of the players in ASU's two-deep at secondary weigh in the 170's. The only starter over 182 lbs is hurt. The starting strong safety is 6'0 172 lbs. Nebraska typically calls these guys kickers (actually, Alex Henery put on some muscle this off season and is about 175 now). Luckily for ASU, the narrow veteran is one of their teams better tacklers and pass defenders.
With ASU's smaller d-line, lack of linebacker speed and smaller defensive backs, NU may have the perfect storm for its shifty and strong running backs to go wild. If the holes are there like they should be, a quick cut may be all it takes to continually spring big runs of 10-12 yards or more.
Zac Lee did not throw too many balls up for grabs last week and will hopefully avoid reckless throws this week as well. Even though Nebraska's receivers should be able to muscle through jump ball matches against ASU's corners, we will most likely see another conservative game with few unnecessary chances. If the passing game isn't clicking, Zac Lee may look to tuck and run a few more times this week in lieu of throwing the ball away. Nebraska's strong receivers should get some nice separation from ASU's small secondary.
- Helu will run for over 100 yards for the second week in a row
- Burkhead will run for over 75 yards
- Menelik Holt will have a big receiving day (wide receivers will block very well again)
- Zac Lee will throw another INT this week
In the food chain of college football, ASU eats MVSU....then NU eats ASU. The coach speak says these guys are going to be a "challenge", but keeping things simple for ASU is an obvious part of the game plan for Virginia Tech. You'll see minimal blitzing and just a sampling of the playbook; no creativity.
Any team can win on Saturday, but if we expected a truly challenging game here, we wouldn't be handing them a million dollar check and playing so vanilla. The coaches believe they can oppose their will on ASU and win the game soundly on base schemes and talent alone. They're saving the good stuff for VT.
Aggressive play in the trenches and talented depth put this one away late in the 3rd.
Final Score: Nebraska 48 Arkansas State 16
This was compiled for entertainment purposes only. I'm usually wrong.
ASU REALITY CHECK
-They'll be under-sized, over-powered and out-coached.
-ASU has an average quarterback (statistically).
-Their star players have underwhelming stats in big games.
-For example: Sun Belt superstar DE Alex Carrington averaged 4.4 tackles and a sack per game last year. However, in his career, he has yet to show up in a game against a BCS team:
-2008 Alabama = 0 sacks, 2 tackles
-2008 A&M = 0 sacks, 3 tackles
-2007 Texas = 0 sacks, 0 tackles
-2007 Tennessee = 0 sacks, 1 tackle
-2006 Oklahoma State = 0 sacks, 1 tackle
-Further hurting Alex's productivity is the fact that double-teaming him is not that costly...on the other side is a 6'1" 245 lb DE that managed just 1 sack last season. A guy that size is what Nebraska generally refers to as a 'linebacker'.
-ASU is 1-14 against the Big 12 (the only win coming against a 114th ranked A&M defense in 2008).
-ASU is a poor road team. They were 2-for-5 in road games last year and 0-for-6 in 2007. Last year, ASU squeaked by the 119th ranked defense of North Texas (5 points) and the 114th ranked defense of Texas A&M (4 points).
-As was the case with Rusty Smith and FAU, the Sun Belt's in-conference success stories don't necessarily translate to the big stage. We were supposed to get tested by one of the Sun Belt's best passing attacks last week, headlined by pro-prospect Rusty Smith: 15 of 31, 0 TDs, 2 INTs.
-The little guys who have a shot to knock off a ranked BCS team are typically the ones that consistently take care of business in their own conference (Boise State, Utah, TCU). Arkansas State does not meet the requirement by dominating their own conference. The Red Wolves are in the middle of the pack (pun intended) in a minor conference. They play aggressive defense with a solid running game, but lack the size and talent to go toe-to-toe with major conference teams. In 2007 they went 3-3 against Sun Belt competition.
-Arkansas State tuned up against a horribly underpowered MVSU team. See for yourself.
-Compare that to their game against Alabama last year, when they played scared and got overpowered in a definite role reversal. Check it out.
NOT SO BOLD PREDICTION
On defense, Nebraska will have a bit more time to get into the backfield than last week. Corey Leonard hangs on to the ball way too long to get through this game without taking some lumps. He is not an accurate enough passer to sit in the pocket and make plays with his arm all day. His indecisiveness will get him popped on more than one occasion, given Nebraska's speed up front. I still expect Pelini to play a fairly vanilla defense and hold off on blitzing. With Virginia Tech coming up next week, Nebraska still won't want to show too many cards.
Nebraska will challenge Leonard to throw the ball by clamping down hard on their offensive strength; the run game. Suh and the boys will take being called 'soft' seriously and dominate the ASU line in the first half. The Nebraska secondary will punish the undersized receivers on short routes, creating an environment for several dropped passes and some potentially easy picks over the middle.
- 3 Sacks
- 3 INTs
- 8 TFLs
On Offense, the Big Red will come out with an emphasis on the running game again. Against an ASU defensive line that averages 6'2" and 275 lbs a man, Nebraska should be able to create holes at will. Their line backers are bigger-bodied guys that seem a good fit for goal line situations, but don't move terribly well laterally. Roy Helu could have a huge day against this bunch with his quick cuts and acceleration.
Last year, ASU played four games against teams with a Top 50 running back (statistically). All were losses. Roy Helu should be a bigger challenge than any of those running backs this Saturday.
The last line of defense is a rangy, but underweight, secondary unit that may have trouble bringing down Nebraska's running backs, tight ends or wide receivers one-on-one. With ASU averaging under 6 ft 180 lbs at the corner spots, NU's wide receivers have a significant size advantage. Half of the players in ASU's two-deep at secondary weigh in the 170's. The only starter over 182 lbs is hurt. The starting strong safety is 6'0 172 lbs. Nebraska typically calls these guys kickers (actually, Alex Henery put on some muscle this off season and is about 175 now). Luckily for ASU, the narrow veteran is one of their teams better tacklers and pass defenders.
With ASU's smaller d-line, lack of linebacker speed and smaller defensive backs, NU may have the perfect storm for its shifty and strong running backs to go wild. If the holes are there like they should be, a quick cut may be all it takes to continually spring big runs of 10-12 yards or more.
Zac Lee did not throw too many balls up for grabs last week and will hopefully avoid reckless throws this week as well. Even though Nebraska's receivers should be able to muscle through jump ball matches against ASU's corners, we will most likely see another conservative game with few unnecessary chances. If the passing game isn't clicking, Zac Lee may look to tuck and run a few more times this week in lieu of throwing the ball away. Nebraska's strong receivers should get some nice separation from ASU's small secondary.
- Helu will run for over 100 yards for the second week in a row
- Burkhead will run for over 75 yards
- Menelik Holt will have a big receiving day (wide receivers will block very well again)
- Zac Lee will throw another INT this week
In the food chain of college football, ASU eats MVSU....then NU eats ASU. The coach speak says these guys are going to be a "challenge", but keeping things simple for ASU is an obvious part of the game plan for Virginia Tech. You'll see minimal blitzing and just a sampling of the playbook; no creativity.
Any team can win on Saturday, but if we expected a truly challenging game here, we wouldn't be handing them a million dollar check and playing so vanilla. The coaches believe they can oppose their will on ASU and win the game soundly on base schemes and talent alone. They're saving the good stuff for VT.
Aggressive play in the trenches and talented depth put this one away late in the 3rd.
Final Score: Nebraska 48 Arkansas State 16
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