The Dude
Heisman Trophy Winner
And this Nebraska team is much better than this Southern Miss team, and that's all that really matters in making such predictions.
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Week 1 Coverage Map
- Thread starter Saunders
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tschu
Banned
knapp you're confusing "prediction" with "actual outcome"
When making a rational prediction all you can do is predict that the better team wins. Obviously the better team doesn't always win.
The Dude
Heisman Trophy Winner
That's the thing about predictions, they don't always come true. All you can really do is make an educated guess.
A weird game from three years ago where we were down to our 5th string running back, Zac Lee threw 3 ints, and Niles Paul went full retard, doesn't make future educated guesses "irrational".
It has no bearing on Saturday's game.
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knapplc
International Man of Mystery
No, I'm not. I'm simply saying these predictions of blowout wins are not realistic. I'm backing that up with examples from the past.
EDIT - that being said, I'm not going to come on here after we win 45-17 and say, "WOW! I never would have thought that was possible!" I do think it's possible. I've thought it was possible for a couple of years now. But we're not putting those games together yet.
I'm a real show-me kinda guy. I'll get behind the bar and serve the kool-aid after this team shows that it's capable of demolishing a Southern Miss. But I'm realistic enough not to predict a blowout. I'm predicting a close game. 24-20 or 20-17.
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Saunders
Heisman Trophy Winner
Most are picking us to cover too, and the line has gone up, which indicates where the money is going.
IDK...
The Dude
Heisman Trophy Winner
knapplc
International Man of Mystery
I think everyone is wildly underestimating this Southern Miss team. They have speed all over their defense. We are not simply going to run away from them. They have at least one outstanding cover corner. They had a better defense statistically than we had last year, and they have a new Head Coach whose forte is defense. Only two teams scored more than 30 points on them.
On offense, we have a line who - inexplicably - often blocks nobody. Not exaggerating one bit. Go watch our games from 2011 and you'll see - so many times our line simply blocked no one on the play. We can't do that against this team or we'll never outscore them by 21 points. Further, we have a QB for whom passing is neither second nor third nature. We know what we have in Martinez. He's tweaked his mechanics and he's gotten better according to the coaches, but we're not hearing a lot different this year than we heard last year. Against a defense that scored eight touchdowns off INTs last year, that should give us reason to be cautious.
None of this means we can't blow them out. But none of it should assure anyone that we will.
As for the spread, what's Nebraska's record vs. the spread over the last few years? Pretty dismal, isn't it? I wouldn't use Vegas as an indicator of how we're going to do.
On offense, we have a line who - inexplicably - often blocks nobody. Not exaggerating one bit. Go watch our games from 2011 and you'll see - so many times our line simply blocked no one on the play. We can't do that against this team or we'll never outscore them by 21 points. Further, we have a QB for whom passing is neither second nor third nature. We know what we have in Martinez. He's tweaked his mechanics and he's gotten better according to the coaches, but we're not hearing a lot different this year than we heard last year. Against a defense that scored eight touchdowns off INTs last year, that should give us reason to be cautious.
None of this means we can't blow them out. But none of it should assure anyone that we will.
As for the spread, what's Nebraska's record vs. the spread over the last few years? Pretty dismal, isn't it? I wouldn't use Vegas as an indicator of how we're going to do.
VectorVictor
Heisman Trophy Winner
Can we stream 1400AM via the 'tubes? And if so, does it sync up as well?
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And Saunders--the blue area is ACC country, and their game is an ACC conference game, IIRC. Why wouldn't it be shown in ACC country?
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knapplc
International Man of Mystery
I would like to think you're right. We have a no-name defense this year. We lack star power, but the coaches have nothing but confidence in this unit. It shows in every interview. I see no reason why this defense can't have a turn-around from last year to this year like we had from 2007-2008. A big statistical jump doesn't seem impossible. I am very encouraged by the hire of Kaczenski. Like a lot of Blackshirt fans, I have always hated this "contain" garbage, and I look forward to seeing lots of pressure put on opposing QBs, something Coach Kaz seems to be very good at.No way they score 17 on us.
EDIT - this is timely. Dave Revsine from BTN is tweeting his predictions for the season for each team. His tweet about Nebraska (bold is mine):
@BTNDaveRevsine
#Huskers - Please stop obsessing about Martinez as passer. He's fine. Key for them is run gm and defense. Depth on "D" is very impressive.
This is a good thing to hear. The coaches have been saying it. The players seem confident. The press who have watched practices like the defense.
Maybe these guys don't score 17 on us. I'd love to see that.
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tschu
Banned
Knapp if you're that convinced that we'll win by 3 or 4, you should be betting your house and car and 401k on Southern Miss +20.5
And I'm not telling you that your prediction is unrealistic or anything at all - I'm simply saying that you shouldn't say that another person's prediction, especially when it matches the sportsbooks (which are largely very accurate for a couple reasons but that's neither here nor there) is not a good prediction because "something else might happen, just look at these past examples!" ...logical fallacy.
The great thing about predictions - we don't know how they will turn out.
And I'm not telling you that your prediction is unrealistic or anything at all - I'm simply saying that you shouldn't say that another person's prediction, especially when it matches the sportsbooks (which are largely very accurate for a couple reasons but that's neither here nor there) is not a good prediction because "something else might happen, just look at these past examples!" ...logical fallacy.
The great thing about predictions - we don't know how they will turn out.