What's Most Important From Armstrong?

[Guy Chamberlin]

Completion percentage is nice and I would like to see it go up, but it is a little over ratied when looking at statistics of a QB. Conner Cook is considered one of the best QB in the BIG and sure fire pro prospect. His completion percentage last year was 57% not the magical 60% everyone wants for TA. His TD/INT ratio was very good though, something like 26/6 while TA was 22/12.

Throwing fewer INTs while increasing the TDs is way more important than completion %. Yards per attempt is also a good indicator.

Good example. Cook was 75th nationally in completion percentage and 9th in yards per attempt. I think most people would consider him closer to the 9th best QB than the 75th best QB.

1) Leadership

2) Everything Else

Who doesn't want a higher completion percentage?

Keeping in mind that Sophomore Tommy Armstrong completed 53% of his passes last season:

Junior Turner Gill completed 54% of his passes in 1982

Senior Tommie Frazier completed 56% of his passes in 1995 (sat our most of his Jr. Year)

Junior Scott Frost completed 52% of his passes in 1996

Junior Eric Crouch completed 48% of his passes in 2000.

Winning cures everything.

Not gonna win with those low percentages in today's game. However, of course all of these stats mentioned in the OP don't correlate much with wins which is why the analytics boom continues. Decision makers don't need data...they need USEFUL data.

The QB's you mentioned probably would score high on a useful total QBR score that considers lots of things, weighted, like ball security, moving the chains, ypa, ypc, etc.

Winning is an outcome not a tactic or a QB stat.

Don't mean to pick on you I enjoy your posts.

edit: lulz I was a few minutes late to the pile on ha

Well keeping in mind that Nebraska often DID win with those low percentages in today's game:

Imagine Tommy Armstrong bumping his completion percentage up a mere 4 or 5 points, and cutting his interceptions by at least half.

Now imagine a Nebraska defense that didn't collapse in big games and force the offense to play out of a hole.

Because those Nebraska ball control offenses of yore benefitted hugely from defenses that allowed them to be patient. No offense can own the fourth quarter if they're on the sideline watching Melvin Gordon fly by.

You bring up "useful" QBR stats, and that's exactly what I'm talking about. The Conner Cook example makes my case.

I win!

 

[zoogs]

Ability. Not stats.

It doesn't matter if Tommy completes 60% of his passes if it means they have to have a really safe, limited passing game that tries to keep him in rhythm with good numbers and won't let him throw more than X number of times per game because he can't.

If Tommy can become a more complete player, then this offense can perhaps really take off.

 

[Mavric]

The reason I think completion percentage is a better indicator than yards per attempt is that completion percentage translates better to winning big games that yards per attempt. Particularly last year, our passing game largely lived on the big play.

Averaging 9.3 ypa against Florida Atlantic, 7.8 ypa against McNeese State, 12.4 ypa against Fresno State, 7.9 ypa against Illinois, 7.6 ypa against Northwestern and 7.4 ypa against Rutgers is nice and it makes the season stats look good but it doesn't mean a lot when it drops to 6.3 ypa (completing 46.5%) against Michigan State or 3.4 ypa (33.3%) against Wisconsin.

It's not a magic bullet as both numbers were pretty good against Minnesota and USC but it's a lot easier for one or two plays to skew the numbers when looking at YPA than it is on completion percentage. Not to mention a lot of big plays are a shorter catch and a lot of running. If you looked at air yards per attempt, that would probably be the best number.

We completed 55.5% of our passes in those first six games I listed so it wasn't so much that we were passing much better, just getting big plays against sub-par teams. When we don't get the big plays against better teams, the offense often struggles because we have trouble completing the other throws we need to keep the offense moving.

 

[suh_fan93]

Ability. Not stats.

It doesn't matter if Tommy completes 60% of his passes if it means they have to have a really safe, limited passing game that tries to keep him in rhythm with good numbers and won't let him throw more than X number of times per game because he can't.

If Tommy can become a more complete player, then this offense can perhaps really take off.

While I'm not blown away by our coaching staff I do think he'll be better coached by having Langsdorf there. Really the rest is up to Tommy Armstrong. He simply needs to make better decisions when throwing the ball. The problem is you can only coach a guy so much when it comes to helping him make those decisions.

 

[alexhortdog95]

How about the one thing that matters more than percentages, ypc, ints, etc....?

WINS.

I see this a lot in multiple discussions, and it's not wrong........but, typically to win, teams and players and coaches have to do the things necessary to win. I find it is a lot more productive to discuss those things that lead to winning rather than going for the easy kill shot of "just win baby".

Uh huh.

Jim Plunkett...2x Super Bowl Winning QB:

He had 18 touchdowns compared to 16 interceptions and only 2,299 yards passing, but he was also 9-2 as a starter and led them to the playoffs, despite losing the division to the high-powered San Diego Chargers. But Plunkett played tremendously well in a road victory over the Chargers in the playoffs and led them to a Super Bowl, resurrecting his previously underachieving career.

Trent Dilfer...SB Winning QB 2000

In his only season as a Raven, Dilfer threw for 1,502 yards, 12 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He was cut before the 2001 season, making him the only Super Bowl-winning quarterback cut following a championship.

Oh, don't use the pro game? Okie Dokie, let's look at college guys...

Craig Krenzel...National Championship QB, 2001

In 2002, Krenzel started all 14 games for the Buckeyes, and despite throwing for less than 60% of his passes (and throwing 14 TDs to 7 picks), all he had to do was hand the ball off to Clarett.

Matt Flynn....National Championship QB, 2007

In 07, Flynn threw for less than 60% of his passes, but threw 21 TDs to 11 picks. When you look at his YPA, he only averaged 6.7 yards an attempt. But he had a killer defense (headed by some guy who loves sweater vests and cats) that bailed him out often.

Greg McElroy...National Championship QB, 2009

I included him on this list not because he threw for 60% that year (which he did), and not because he threw 17 TDs to 4 picks that year. I included him because of his stat line in the National championship game: 6-11, 54.5%. 58 yards passing. His stats in that game weren't much better than Gilbert's from Tejas. That dude threw for 37.5%, LOLZ

People remember these guys not because of their stats. They remember these guys because they have a ring. Here's one more that cuts a little closer to home.

in the NFL of 2007, some guy from New Orleans threw for 56.1%, 23 TDs to 20 INTs. He went up against a guy in the Super Bowl that had thrown for almost 70%, 50 TDs (setting a single season record that year), and almost 5000 yards.

Same guy from LA in 2011 threw for 61%, 29TDs to 16 INTs. Again, he went up against the same dude who had thrown for 39 TDs, 12 INTs at a 65.6% clip.

A 10 time Pro-Bowler against a 3 time Pro-Bowler. Hell, the 3 time Pro-Bowler isn't even the best QB in his family.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you...

Bad Comedian Eli Manning...

P.S. - the Bad Comedian had his statistically best year last year throwing for 63.1%, 30 TDs to 14 Ints, under the QB Whisperer, now Nebraska Offensive Coordinator Danny Langsdorf.

And the Giants weren't even close to being .500 on the season, folks.

Stats are often indicators of success, but can be overblown and over analyzed. The only real stat that wins is the one on the scoreboard.

 

[JJ Husker]

How about the one thing that matters more than percentages, ypc, ints, etc....?

WINS.

I see this a lot in multiple discussions, and it's not wrong........but, typically to win, teams and players and coaches have to do the things necessary to win. I find it is a lot more productive to discuss those things that lead to winning rather than going for the easy kill shot of "just win baby".

Uh huh.

Jim Plunkett...2x Super Bowl Winning QB:

He had 18 touchdowns compared to 16 interceptions and only 2,299 yards passing, but he was also 9-2 as a starter and led them to the playoffs, despite losing the division to the high-powered San Diego Chargers. But Plunkett played tremendously well in a road victory over the Chargers in the playoffs and led them to a Super Bowl, resurrecting his previously underachieving career.

Trent Dilfer...SB Winning QB 2000

In his only season as a Raven, Dilfer threw for 1,502 yards, 12 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He was cut before the 2001 season, making him the only Super Bowl-winning quarterback cut following a championship.

Oh, don't use the pro game? Okie Dokie, let's look at college guys...

Craig Krenzel...National Championship QB, 2001

In 2002, Krenzel started all 14 games for the Buckeyes, and despite throwing for less than 60% of his passes (and throwing 14 TDs to 7 picks), all he had to do was hand the ball off to Clarett.

Matt Flynn....National Championship QB, 2007

In 07, Flynn threw for less than 60% of his passes, but threw 21 TDs to 11 picks. When you look at his YPA, he only averaged 6.7 yards an attempt. But he had a killer defense (headed by some guy who loves sweater vests and cats) that bailed him out often.

Greg McElroy...National Championship QB, 2009

I included him on this list not because he threw for 60% that year (which he did), and not because he threw 17 TDs to 4 picks that year. I included him because of his stat line in the National championship game: 6-11, 54.5%. 58 yards passing. His stats in that game weren't much better than Gilbert's from Tejas. That dude threw for 37.5%, LOLZ

People remember these guys not because of their stats. They remember these guys because they have a ring. Here's one more that cuts a little closer to home.

in the NFL of 2007, some guy from New Orleans threw for 56.1%, 23 TDs to 20 INTs. He went up against a guy in the Super Bowl that had thrown for almost 70%, 50 TDs (setting a single season record that year), and almost 5000 yards.

Same guy from LA in 2011 threw for 61%, 29TDs to 16 INTs. Again, he went up against the same dude who had thrown for 39 TDs, 12 INTs at a 65.6% clip.

A 10 time Pro-Bowler against a 3 time Pro-Bowler. Hell, the 3 time Pro-Bowler isn't even the best QB in his family.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you...

Bad Comedian Eli Manning...

P.S. - the Bad Comedian had his statistically best year last year throwing for 63.1%, 30 TDs to 14 Ints, under the QB Whisperer, now Nebraska Offensive Coordinator Danny Langsdorf.

And the Giants weren't even close to being .500 on the season, folks.

Stats are often indicators of success, but can be overblown and over analyzed. The only real stat that wins is the one on the scoreboard.

Just a gut feeling (that I'm not going to waste my time validating) but I expect there are numerous more examples of players winning with good stats than there are of players winning with bad stats. Call it a crazy hunch.

And BTW, I would not consider those guys to be very well known for winning.....Plunkett maybe but other than that, yeeesh. I don't think those are the guys we want to try to emulate.

 

[lo country]

With DPE out, stay healthy........

 

[Savage Husker]

How about the one thing that matters more than percentages, ypc, ints, etc....?

WINS.

I see this a lot in multiple discussions, and it's not wrong........but, typically to win, teams and players and coaches have to do the things necessary to win. I find it is a lot more productive to discuss those things that lead to winning rather than going for the easy kill shot of "just win baby".

Uh huh.

Jim Plunkett...2x Super Bowl Winning QB:

He had 18 touchdowns compared to 16 interceptions and only 2,299 yards passing, but he was also 9-2 as a starter and led them to the playoffs, despite losing the division to the high-powered San Diego Chargers. But Plunkett played tremendously well in a road victory over the Chargers in the playoffs and led them to a Super Bowl, resurrecting his previously underachieving career.

Trent Dilfer...SB Winning QB 2000

In his only season as a Raven, Dilfer threw for 1,502 yards, 12 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He was cut before the 2001 season, making him the only Super Bowl-winning quarterback cut following a championship.

Oh, don't use the pro game? Okie Dokie, let's look at college guys...

Craig Krenzel...National Championship QB, 2001

In 2002, Krenzel started all 14 games for the Buckeyes, and despite throwing for less than 60% of his passes (and throwing 14 TDs to 7 picks), all he had to do was hand the ball off to Clarett.

Matt Flynn....National Championship QB, 2007

In 07, Flynn threw for less than 60% of his passes, but threw 21 TDs to 11 picks. When you look at his YPA, he only averaged 6.7 yards an attempt. But he had a killer defense (headed by some guy who loves sweater vests and cats) that bailed him out often.

Greg McElroy...National Championship QB, 2009

I included him on this list not because he threw for 60% that year (which he did), and not because he threw 17 TDs to 4 picks that year. I included him because of his stat line in the National championship game: 6-11, 54.5%. 58 yards passing. His stats in that game weren't much better than Gilbert's from Tejas. That dude threw for 37.5%, LOLZ

People remember these guys not because of their stats. They remember these guys because they have a ring. Here's one more that cuts a little closer to home.

in the NFL of 2007, some guy from New Orleans threw for 56.1%, 23 TDs to 20 INTs. He went up against a guy in the Super Bowl that had thrown for almost 70%, 50 TDs (setting a single season record that year), and almost 5000 yards.

Same guy from LA in 2011 threw for 61%, 29TDs to 16 INTs. Again, he went up against the same dude who had thrown for 39 TDs, 12 INTs at a 65.6% clip.

A 10 time Pro-Bowler against a 3 time Pro-Bowler. Hell, the 3 time Pro-Bowler isn't even the best QB in his family.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you...

Bad Comedian Eli Manning...

P.S. - the Bad Comedian had his statistically best year last year throwing for 63.1%, 30 TDs to 14 Ints, under the QB Whisperer, now Nebraska Offensive Coordinator Danny Langsdorf.

And the Giants weren't even close to being .500 on the season, folks.

Stats are often indicators of success, but can be overblown and over analyzed. The only real stat that wins is the one on the scoreboard.

Just a gut feeling (that I'm not going to waste my time validating) but I expect there are numerous more examples of players winning with good stats than there are of players winning with bad stats. Call it a crazy hunch.
And BTW, I would not consider those guys to be very well known for winning.....Plunkett maybe but other than that, yeeesh. I don't think those are the guys we want to try to emulate.

Most of those QBs benefitted great from the amazing defenses had.

 

[True2tRA]

KB - gone

AA - gone

DPE - gone 6-8 weeks

JW - 13 games played 44 receptions last year

JT - 2 games played- 4 receptions last year

BR - 7 games played - 6 receptions last year

AM - 11 games played - 10 receptions

TA - 12 games played - 8 receptions

LH - 12 games played - 5 receptions

CC - 9 games played - 6 receptions

SC - 13 games played - 3 receptions

Here I am making excuses for Tommy before the season even starts. That's what some will say. Facts are facts. If Tommy overcomes the odds to be successful this season, it will be a credit to him and to this coaching staff, and these inexperienced WR's, because right now the deck is stacked against these guys.

 

[NebraskaShellback]

When does a season go by that players and coaches don't get heat during and after games!

 

[True2tRA]

When does a season go by that players and coaches don't get heat during and after games!

Is this a question or a Jeopardy answer?

Either way, I don't know the answer, you tell me. When does a season go by that players and coaches don't get heat during and after games?

 

[SuperBigFan69]

KB - gone

AA - gone

DPE - gone 6-8 weeks

JW - 13 games played 44 receptions last year

JT - 2 games played- 4 receptions last year

BR - 7 games played - 6 receptions last year

AM - 11 games played - 10 receptions

TA - 12 games played - 8 receptions

LH - 12 games played - 5 receptions

CC - 9 games played - 6 receptions

SC - 13 games played - 3 receptions

Here I am making excuses for Tommy before the season even starts. That's what some will say. Facts are facts. If Tommy overcomes the odds to be successful this season, it will be a credit to him and to this coaching staff, and these inexperienced WR's, because right now the deck is stacked against these guys.

This is true but you have to consider that many fans were happy that KB was/is gone...

The OL is way better with a better coach

TA is getting better coaching and has 20 plus starts under his belt.

Tight Ends...that will be nice this year!

Check downs to backs

Better play calling

A huddle that with WR's and QB's on the same page each play.

Better defense that will/should create more turnovers and help the offense out.

 

[True2tRA]

KB - gone

AA - gone

DPE - gone 6-8 weeks

JW - 13 games played 44 receptions last year

JT - 2 games played- 4 receptions last year

BR - 7 games played - 6 receptions last year

AM - 11 games played - 10 receptions

TA - 12 games played - 8 receptions

LH - 12 games played - 5 receptions

CC - 9 games played - 6 receptions

SC - 13 games played - 3 receptions

Here I am making excuses for Tommy before the season even starts. That's what some will say. Facts are facts. If Tommy overcomes the odds to be successful this season, it will be a credit to him and to this coaching staff, and these inexperienced WR's, because right now the deck is stacked against these guys.

This is true but you have to consider that many fans were happy that KB was/is gone...

The OL is way better with a better coach

TA is getting better coaching and has 20 plus starts under his belt.

Tight Ends...that will be nice this year!

Check downs to backs

Better play calling

A huddle that with WR's and QB's on the same page each play.

Better defense that will/should create more turnovers and help the offense out.

 

[True2tRA]

I don't know what to say to you anymore teachercd. I can't reason with logic like that. Apparently you've seen the future and I thank you for letting me know how it's all gonna go. I feel much better now knowing

I'm sure all Husker fans are happy to hear the offensive line is way better, Tommy is checking down to backs (contrary to a recent practice report even), Langsdorf is calling better plays, the huddle has ensured Wr's and Qb are on the same page, and we have a better defense to create turnovers and help the offense out!

Silly me, I was gonna wait and see a game or 10 before I believed all those things were fixed. Thank goodness you've assured me of it before we've even taken a snap!

The OL is way better with a better coach

Tight Ends...that will be nice this year!

Check downs to backs

Better play calling

A huddle that with WR's and QB's on the same page each play.

Better defense that will/should create more turnovers and help the offense out.

 

[SuperBigFan69]

I don't know what to say to you anymore teachercd. I can't reason with logic like that. Apparently you've seen the future and I thank you for letting me know how it's all gonna go. I feel much better now knowing

I'm sure all Husker fans are happy to hear the offensive line is way better, Tommy is checking down to backs (contrary to a recent practice report even), Langsdorf is calling better plays, the huddle has ensured Wr's and Qb are on the same page, and we have a better defense to create turnovers and help the offense out!

Silly me, I was gonna wait and see a game or 10 before I believed all those things were fixed. Thank goodness you've assured me of it before we've even taken a snap!

The OL is way better with a better coach

Tight Ends...that will be nice this year!

Check downs to backs

Better play calling

A huddle that with WR's and QB's on the same page each play.

Better defense that will/should create more turnovers and help the offense out.

You are welcome!