When Should You Go For Two?

[Red Five]

Quite frankly, if a college or pro coach can't figure out with his own, unassisted brain, when to and when not to go for 2, then he shouldn't be coaching and they shouldn't be paying them millions of bucks. I can see where analytics would help save time by analyizing large amts of info, like the other team's/players tendencies, etc, so as they may not have to speand as much time looking @ film, etc.

Hey listen up the big _____ski.

Quite frankly, everything you just said was wrong.

Quite accurately, the article proved that NFL coaches are terrible at this. So, according to you, they must all be fired immediately. But you failed to point that out to us.

Analytics saves time, eh? LOL. Analytics is the ONLY WAY to determine the most advantageous decision. Something less than a few percent of the US population could do this in their own unassisted brains. Even then, they would be using analytics (in their head). You can't, and you talk again and again like you can.

You seem to like to teach us so I have a question. Who is the most likely person to be unaware when anti-wisdom is being spoken?

Plz pardon the delay, just got back from a love triste w Khatia Buniatishvili and Cecile de la France...
Now, where were we, oh yes, analytics, here's question for you, Mr. Smart Guy. I couldn't help but notice the term "analytics" has the word "anal" in it. Do you, from a moral standpoint, think that is right?

Your queries, though, I wll now proceed to answer in reverse order, ahem:

3) John Q American. Scratch that, the Pope, any Pope. No, scratch that, it's gotta be that Ape the popular minority put in the oval office. I'll stick w that.

2)Human brain or brains. I'm sorry to say that, first of all, your apparent full submission to the Analytic God fills me with pathos AND...boredom. BUT, unfortunately, Sir, you grossly, GROSSLY, underestimate the human brain, which happens to be the most amazingly and sophisticatedly evolved "thing" in the known universe. To claim, as you did, that analytics "decision making" supercedes the immense processing power of the human brain in patently FALSE and I defer you to any competant neuroscientist and/or linguist to find out more about that on your own. They are still just scratching trhe surface of understanding the amazing workings and potential of the human brain. It pains me to think that you may devalue your own brain like all the technocratic nerds apparently want us to do.

I'll follow up with: Mozart. And that would be "checkmate". Ok, I'll add Rachmaninoff, Chopin, Michelangelo, Shakespeare, Spinoza, I will take their brains over your analytics "brain" everyday of the week and twice n Sunday. What brain(s) invented analytics? That's right, human brains and not the other way around and you can remember that when you're genuflecting to your Robot God too.

Brady. Checkmate again. What was the analytics prediction % of a N.E. Victory in the 4th qtr when they were down 28-9 or wtever. So much for analytics. Brady has a human brain.

1) Yes, in the context to which I referred yes, fire them all--except Belichick, of course. Thankfully, somehow, someway coaches and players were somehow able to conduct the ame of football--just as well--before the human brain invented analytics.

Analytics is to football as a "sampled trumpet" is to Miles Davis.

Thanks for playing...

 

[NoLongerN]

 

[Kiyoat Husker]

The analysis is literally in front of your face at the top of this post and it says there's a tie between going for 2 and kicking the extra point in this situation, therefore it's up to the coaches.

I think this is the most salient point, IMO. Those calling for rarely trying the conversion (ala NFL coaches), or rarely kicking the XP (ala Oregon) are both wrong.

Smart coaches will know both their own team's capabilities and match-ups with the opponent, and will make an intelligent choice based on the game situation, rather than always doing one or the other based on a chart. The statistics and analytics should inform the decision, but a good coach will modify it based on knowing their team and opponent.

 

[Nebfanatic]

The analysis is literally in front of your face at the top of this post and it says there's a tie between going for 2 and kicking the extra point in this situation, therefore it's up to the coaches.

I think this is the most salient point, IMO. Those calling for rarely trying the conversion (ala NFL coaches), or rarely kicking the XP (ala Oregon) are both wrong.

Smart coaches will know both their own team's capabilities and match-ups with the opponent, and will make an intelligent choice based on the game situation, rather than always doing one or the other based on a chart. The statistics and analytics should inform the decision, but a good coach will modify it based on knowing their team and opponent.

This is what I have been for this whole time. I took the stance of always going for 2 or being ultra aggressive just to show the numbers side that says it's advantageous. But overall I think coaches should look at each decision differently and seriously consider both options instead of blindly kicking the PAT. In my opinion there is at least one point in every game where at least one of the teams should go for 2

 

[The Big Nebrowski]

Ok, if the analytics "makes better decisions" than any coach possibly could, then why have coaches? Get rid of em and put a lil "Watson" on every sideline. Bosses are happy because it cuts down on labor costs--they HATE labor costs more than anything else. Automation replacing workers, its everywhere, why not football too? When they get those A.I. Bots up to speed, boom, no mas players and no mas concussions to worry about and the law suits--oh, the law suits!

Stream it all thru virtual reality goggles and its a techys wet dream.

The Virtual Green Bay Packer Bots, I can see it already, like a vision.

 

[Notre Dame Joe]

Note that when Belichek scored to make it 9-28, he kicked the XP, when a 2PC would make it a 17 point game.

Same train of thought, he kicked the fg on 4th down to get to 12. Because he saw the Pats get knocked backwards on three consecutive downs. The momentum was against the Pats at this point and it would have been horrible to walk away with no points at all.

 

[Mierin]

Ok, if the analytics "makes better decisions" than any coach possibly could, then why have coaches?

Re-read the entire thread please. Then edit this post.

 

[Mierin]

The analysis is literally in front of your face at the top of this post and it says there's a tie between going for 2 and kicking the extra point in this situation, therefore it's up to the coaches.

I think this is the most salient point, IMO. Those calling for rarely trying the conversion (ala NFL coaches), or rarely kicking the XP (ala Oregon) are both wrong.

Smart coaches will know both their own team's capabilities and match-ups with the opponent, and will make an intelligent choice based on the game situation, rather than always doing one or the other based on a chart. The statistics and analytics should inform the decision, but a good coach will modify it based on knowing their team and opponent.

Pretty much. When people who don't understand statistics say stupid things about statistics, I'm going to be respond, but the bolded is how I feel. I think it should probably be used more than it is but it is one factor that should go into in-game decisions.

 

[dvdcrr]

Quite frankly, if a college or pro coach can't figure out with his own, unassisted brain, when to and when not to go for 2, then he shouldn't be coaching and they shouldn't be paying them millions of bucks. I can see where analytics would help save time by analyizing large amts of info, like the other team's/players tendencies, etc, so as they may not have to speand as much time looking @ film, etc.

Hey listen up the big _____ski.

Quite frankly, everything you just said was wrong.

Quite accurately, the article proved that NFL coaches are terrible at this. So, according to you, they must all be fired immediately. But you failed to point that out to us.

Analytics saves time, eh? LOL. Analytics is the ONLY WAY to determine the most advantageous decision. Something less than a few percent of the US population could do this in their own unassisted brains. Even then, they would be using analytics (in their head). You can't, and you talk again and again like you can.

You seem to like to teach us so I have a question. Who is the most likely person to be unaware when anti-wisdom is being spoken?

Plz pardon the delay, just got back from a love triste w Khatia Buniatishvili and Cecile de la France...
Now, where were we, oh yes, analytics, here's question for you, Mr. Smart Guy. I couldn't help but notice the term "analytics" has the word "anal" in it. Do you, from a moral standpoint, think that is right?

Your queries, though, I wll now proceed to answer in reverse order, ahem:

3) John Q American. Scratch that, the Pope, any Pope. No, scratch that, it's gotta be that Ape the popular minority put in the oval office. I'll stick w that.

2)Human brain or brains. I'm sorry to say that, first of all, your apparent full submission to the Analytic God fills me with pathos AND...boredom. BUT, unfortunately, Sir, you grossly, GROSSLY, underestimate the human brain, which happens to be the most amazingly and sophisticatedly evolved "thing" in the known universe. To claim, as you did, that analytics "decision making" supercedes the immense processing power of the human brain in patently FALSE and I defer you to any competant neuroscientist and/or linguist to find out more about that on your own. They are still just scratching trhe surface of understanding the amazing workings and potential of the human brain. It pains me to think that you may devalue your own brain like all the technocratic nerds apparently want us to do.

I'll follow up with: Mozart. And that would be "checkmate". Ok, I'll add Rachmaninoff, Chopin, Michelangelo, Shakespeare, Spinoza, I will take their brains over your analytics "brain" everyday of the week and twice n Sunday. What brain(s) invented analytics? That's right, human brains and not the other way around and you can remember that when you're genuflecting to your Robot God too.

Brady. Checkmate again. What was the analytics prediction % of a N.E. Victory in the 4th qtr when they were down 28-9 or wtever. So much for analytics. Brady has a human brain.

1) Yes, in the context to which I referred yes, fire them all--except Belichick, of course. Thankfully, somehow, someway coaches and players were somehow able to conduct the ame of football--just as well--before the human brain invented analytics.

Analytics is to football as a "sampled trumpet" is to Miles Davis.

Thanks for playing...

And again with the most overused unoriginal meme in the history of Al Gore's green internet.

 

[Mierin]

Quite frankly, if a college or pro coach can't figure out with his own, unassisted brain, when to and when not to go for 2, then he shouldn't be coaching and they shouldn't be paying them millions of bucks. I can see where analytics would help save time by analyizing large amts of info, like the other team's/players tendencies, etc, so as they may not have to speand as much time looking @ film, etc.

Hey listen up the big _____ski.

Quite frankly, everything you just said was wrong.

Quite accurately, the article proved that NFL coaches are terrible at this. So, according to you, they must all be fired immediately. But you failed to point that out to us.

Analytics saves time, eh? LOL. Analytics is the ONLY WAY to determine the most advantageous decision. Something less than a few percent of the US population could do this in their own unassisted brains. Even then, they would be using analytics (in their head). You can't, and you talk again and again like you can.

You seem to like to teach us so I have a question. Who is the most likely person to be unaware when anti-wisdom is being spoken?

Plz pardon the delay, just got back from a love triste w Khatia Buniatishvili and Cecile de la France...
Now, where were we, oh yes, analytics, here's question for you, Mr. Smart Guy. I couldn't help but notice the term "analytics" has the word "anal" in it. Do you, from a moral standpoint, think that is right?

Your queries, though, I wll now proceed to answer in reverse order, ahem:

3) John Q American. Scratch that, the Pope, any Pope. No, scratch that, it's gotta be that Ape the popular minority put in the oval office. I'll stick w that.

2)Human brain or brains. I'm sorry to say that, first of all, your apparent full submission to the Analytic God fills me with pathos AND...boredom. BUT, unfortunately, Sir, you grossly, GROSSLY, underestimate the human brain, which happens to be the most amazingly and sophisticatedly evolved "thing" in the known universe. To claim, as you did, that analytics "decision making" supercedes the immense processing power of the human brain in patently FALSE and I defer you to any competant neuroscientist and/or linguist to find out more about that on your own. They are still just scratching trhe surface of understanding the amazing workings and potential of the human brain. It pains me to think that you may devalue your own brain like all the technocratic nerds apparently want us to do.

I'll follow up with: Mozart. And that would be "checkmate". Ok, I'll add Rachmaninoff, Chopin, Michelangelo, Shakespeare, Spinoza, I will take their brains over your analytics "brain" everyday of the week and twice n Sunday. What brain(s) invented analytics? That's right, human brains and not the other way around and you can remember that when you're genuflecting to your Robot God too.

Brady. Checkmate again. What was the analytics prediction % of a N.E. Victory in the 4th qtr when they were down 28-9 or wtever. So much for analytics. Brady has a human brain.

1) Yes, in the context to which I referred yes, fire them all--except Belichick, of course. Thankfully, somehow, someway coaches and players were somehow able to conduct the ame of football--just as well--before the human brain invented analytics.

Analytics is to football as a "sampled trumpet" is to Miles Davis.

Thanks for playing...

And again with the most overused unoriginal meme in the history of Al Gore's green internet.

This is the first time I've ever seen it.

 

[The Big Nebrowski]

Note that when Belichek scored to make it 9-28, he kicked the XP, when a 2PC would make it a 17 point game.

Same train of thought, he kicked the fg on 4th down to get to 12. Because he saw the Pats get knocked backwards on three consecutive downs. The momentum was against the Pats at this point and it would have been horrible to walk away with no points at all.

When the Pats scored the TD, it was still early enough in the game to avoid the higher risk of going for the 2, even though w Brady they maybe have a ~60% chance. Unfortunately, the normally automatic Gostkowski muffed the PAT. Still better to go for the PAT at that point.
Kicking the FG would be the standard, best decision at that point, though if it were 4th and 1, considering the deficit, they might have easily gone for it since Brady regularly sneaks for the 1 yd, he has a knack for it.

Late, in the 4th, they pretty much had to go for the 2s to catch up in the most direct route relative to the time remaining and fortunately it worked out for them. And again, their chances of converting 2s are probably somewhat higher w Brady.

I don't see that analytics is necessary for any of those decisions.

 

[Kiyoat Husker]

Note that when Belichek scored to make it 9-28, he kicked the XP, when a 2PC would make it a 17 point game.

Same train of thought, he kicked the fg on 4th down to get to 12. Because he saw the Pats get knocked backwards on three consecutive downs. The momentum was against the Pats at this point and it would have been horrible to walk away with no points at all.

When the Pats scored the TD, it was still early enough in the game to avoid the higher risk of going for the 2, even though w Brady they maybe have a ~60% chance. Unfortunately, the normally automatic Gostkowski muffed the PAT. Still better to go for the PAT at that point.
Kicking the FG would be the standard, best decision at that point, though if it were 4th and 1, considering the deficit, they might have easily gone for it since Brady regularly sneaks for the 1 yd, he has a knack for it.

Late, in the 4th, they pretty much had to go for the 2s to catch up in the most direct route relative to the time remaining and fortunately it worked out for them. And again, their chances of converting 2s are probably somewhat higher w Brady.

I don't see that analytics is necessary for any of those decisions.

That's hilarious that you used Belichick as an example of why analytics are unnecessary. He has been using analytics for his whole head coaching career, through his personal analytics guru, Ernie Adams. Here's an in-depth article about him, if you care to read it:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/29/mysterious-ernie-adams-patriots-man-behind-curtain/IrNCfgrysUphGpkcIjEaBL/story.html

you could tell he was important to Bill. He was upstairs during the games and he had some say in things. He was an analytics guy before there were analytics.

Or here's another article about Belichick's use of analytics:

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/01/dont-let-bill-belichick-playing-dumb-fool-you-the-patriots-know-importance-of-analytics

 

[Hedley Lamarr]

Note that when Belichek scored to make it 9-28, he kicked the XP, when a 2PC would make it a 17 point game.

Same train of thought, he kicked the fg on 4th down to get to 12. Because he saw the Pats get knocked backwards on three consecutive downs. The momentum was against the Pats at this point and it would have been horrible to walk away with no points at all.

When the Pats scored the TD, it was still early enough in the game to avoid the higher risk of going for the 2, even though w Brady they maybe have a ~60% chance. Unfortunately, the normally automatic Gostkowski muffed the PAT. Still better to go for the PAT at that point.
Kicking the FG would be the standard, best decision at that point, though if it were 4th and 1, considering the deficit, they might have easily gone for it since Brady regularly sneaks for the 1 yd, he has a knack for it.

Late, in the 4th, they pretty much had to go for the 2s to catch up in the most direct route relative to the time remaining and fortunately it worked out for them. And again, their chances of converting 2s are probably somewhat higher w Brady.

I don't see that analytics is necessary for any of those decisions.

That's hilarious that you used Belichick as an example of why analytics are unnecessary. He has been using analytics for his whole head coaching career, through his personal analytics guru, Ernie Adams. Here's an in-depth article about him, if you care to read it:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/29/mysterious-ernie-adams-patriots-man-behind-curtain/IrNCfgrysUphGpkcIjEaBL/story.html

you could tell he was important to Bill. He was upstairs during the games and he had some say in things. He was an analytics guy before there were analytics.

Or here's another article about Belichick's use of analytics:

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/01/dont-let-bill-belichick-playing-dumb-fool-you-the-patriots-know-importance-of-analytics

So this is the perfect example of someone peeing in someone elses cheerios.

 

[The Big Nebrowski]

Note that when Belichek scored to make it 9-28, he kicked the XP, when a 2PC would make it a 17 point game.

Same train of thought, he kicked the fg on 4th down to get to 12. Because he saw the Pats get knocked backwards on three consecutive downs. The momentum was against the Pats at this point and it would have been horrible to walk away with no points at all.

When the Pats scored the TD, it was still early enough in the game to avoid the higher risk of going for the 2, even though w Brady they maybe have a ~60% chance. Unfortunately, the normally automatic Gostkowski muffed the PAT. Still better to go for the PAT at that point.
Kicking the FG would be the standard, best decision at that point, though if it were 4th and 1, considering the deficit, they might have easily gone for it since Brady regularly sneaks for the 1 yd, he has a knack for it.

Late, in the 4th, they pretty much had to go for the 2s to catch up in the most direct route relative to the time remaining and fortunately it worked out for them. And again, their chances of converting 2s are probably somewhat higher w Brady.

I don't see that analytics is necessary for any of those decisions.

That's hilarious that you used Belichick as an example of why analytics are unnecessary. He has been using analytics for his whole head coaching career, through his personal analytics guru, Ernie Adams. Here's an in-depth article about him, if you care to read it:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/29/mysterious-ernie-adams-patriots-man-behind-curtain/IrNCfgrysUphGpkcIjEaBL/story.html

you could tell he was important to Bill. He was upstairs during the games and he had some say in things. He was an analytics guy before there were analytics.

Or here's another article about Belichick's use of analytics:

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/01/dont-let-bill-belichick-playing-dumb-fool-you-the-patriots-know-importance-of-analytics

Don't read much, eh? Where did I say that Beli doesn't/didn't use1analytics? I didn't. I basically said that I wouldn't use analytics.

 

[B.B. Hemingway]

Note that when Belichek scored to make it 9-28, he kicked the XP, when a 2PC would make it a 17 point game.

Same train of thought, he kicked the fg on 4th down to get to 12. Because he saw the Pats get knocked backwards on three consecutive downs. The momentum was against the Pats at this point and it would have been horrible to walk away with no points at all.

When the Pats scored the TD, it was still early enough in the game to avoid the higher risk of going for the 2, even though w Brady they maybe have a ~60% chance. Unfortunately, the normally automatic Gostkowski muffed the PAT. Still better to go for the PAT at that point.Kicking the FG would be the standard, best decision at that point, though if it were 4th and 1, considering the deficit, they might have easily gone for it since Brady regularly sneaks for the 1 yd, he has a knack for it.

Late, in the 4th, they pretty much had to go for the 2s to catch up in the most direct route relative to the time remaining and fortunately it worked out for them. And again, their chances of converting 2s are probably somewhat higher w Brady.

I don't see that analytics is necessary for any of those decisions.

That's hilarious that you used Belichick as an example of why analytics are unnecessary. He has been using analytics for his whole head coaching career, through his personal analytics guru, Ernie Adams. Here's an in-depth article about him, if you care to read it:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/29/mysterious-ernie-adams-patriots-man-behind-curtain/IrNCfgrysUphGpkcIjEaBL/story.html

you could tell he was important to Bill. He was upstairs during the games and he had some say in things. He was an analytics guy before there were analytics.

Or here's another article about Belichick's use of analytics:

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/01/dont-let-bill-belichick-playing-dumb-fool-you-the-patriots-know-importance-of-analytics

Don't read much, eh? Where did I say that Beli doesn't/didn't use1analytics? I didn't. I basically said that I wouldn't use analytics.

FLU?