When Should You Go For Two?

[zeWilbur]

For a long time now I've thought you could set up for a play, have the QB call for motion, and then decide whether to kick or run the play based on the QB's read. If the D didn't react to the motion correctly, and you ended up with a mismatch, he would run the play. Otherwise, the QB would take the delay penalty, and you'd just kick a 7 yard extra point. If I was coaching I'd seriously consider doing this every time. I mean, how often would you miss a 7 yard extra point? Even if you only ran the play (instead of taking a delay) 20% of the time, it seems like it'd be worth it.

Still much more risk running said play: snap goes over QB's head, QB fumbles snap, QB wiffs on the play, QB is stuffed, QB throws pick and they take it the other way for 2, etc., etc.

Snap goes over holder's head, holder fumbles the snap, holder leaves laces pointing towards kicker, kicker mishits(whiffs) ball, kick is blocked and returned for two, etc, etc

Just playing devil's advocate but if you are looking at everything that can go wrong no offense would throw a pass either.

 

[dvdcrr]

For a long time now I've thought you could set up for a play, have the QB call for motion, and then decide whether to kick or run the play based on the QB's read. If the D didn't react to the motion correctly, and you ended up with a mismatch, he would run the play. Otherwise, the QB would take the delay penalty, and you'd just kick a 7 yard extra point. If I was coaching I'd seriously consider doing this every time. I mean, how often would you miss a 7 yard extra point? Even if you only ran the play (instead of taking a delay) 20% of the time, it seems like it'd be worth it.

Still much more risk running said play: snap goes over QB's head, QB fumbles snap, QB wiffs on the play, QB is stuffed, QB throws pick and they take it the other way for 2, etc., etc.

Snap goes over holder's head, holder fumbles the snap, holder leaves laces pointing towards kicker, kicker mishits(whiffs) ball, kick is blocked and returned for two, etc, etc
Just playing devil's advocate but if you are looking at everything that can go wrong no offense would throw a pass either.

Over time if you try to line up and read your team is going to make bad decisions or execution mistakes and in the long run it will cost you points, which is why you just line up and kick it. Also invariably, your qb will take the liberty to audible to the two point play at completely the wrong time, when you absolutely really need the one, and you mess it up and get none. I have seen this several times. It has to be off the table to prevent this.

 

[lo country]

Here's a HS coach who goes for 2, never punts, kicks onsides all the time and other crazy stuff. His unorthodox style is based on statistical analysis and proves him either a mad scientist or genius......

http://footballscoop.com/news/espn-caught-up-with-kevin-kelley-the-hs-coach-who-never-punts-to-see-how-his-latest-idea-has-worked-out/

http://footballscoop.com/news/pulaski-academys-kevin-kelley-aka-mr-never-punt-has-a-crazy-new-offensive-innovation/

 

[ColoradoHusk]

Here's a HS coach who goes for 2, never punts, kicks onsides all the time and other crazy stuff. His unorthodox style is based on statistical analysis and proves him either a mad scientist or genius......

http://footballscoop.com/news/espn-caught-up-with-kevin-kelley-the-hs-coach-who-never-punts-to-see-how-his-latest-idea-has-worked-out/

http://footballscoop.com/news/pulaski-academys-kevin-kelley-aka-mr-never-punt-has-a-crazy-new-offensive-innovation/

That guy does that because kicking is so bad in the high school game. I actually agree with him for the most part. However, in college and NFL the kicking game can have a huge impact on changing field position, so it's not a good comparison. Kelley has been trying to get a college head coaching job and has said he would coach the same at the college level though.

 

[Timmahawk]

I don't think the OP or 538 is arguing to go for it every time, rather there are gonna be times that you're better off going for 2 than 1, and perhaps an opportunity to give yourself an advantage that some coaches aren't taking.

 

[huKSer]

I would go for 2 every time if:

less than a minute to play

down by 2

 

[Xmas32]

I would go for 2 every time if I coached HS Football in Louisiana. Them cajunz are ultra conservative despite having access to all that southern speed. Amirite or amirite there Nebrowski??

 

[The Big Nebrowski]

I would go for 2 every time if:

less than a minute to play

down by 2

LOLOL! You, mr. huKSer, are BRILLIANT! You have an analyticsa chip in your brain, right, ADMIT IT!

 

[The Big Nebrowski]

I would go for 2 every time if I coached HS Football in Louisiana. Them cajunz are ultra conservative despite having access to all that southern speed. Amirite or amirite there Nebrowski??

Kno' wut? I like yer style thar, 32! You can do wtever you dadgum cajunz please, 32, and I'll sign off ornit!

 

[The Big Nebrowski]

For a long time now I've thought you could set up for a play, have the QB call for motion, and then decide whether to kick or run the play based on the QB's read. If the D didn't react to the motion correctly, and you ended up with a mismatch, he would run the play. Otherwise, the QB would take the delay penalty, and you'd just kick a 7 yard extra point. If I was coaching I'd seriously consider doing this every time. I mean, how often would you miss a 7 yard extra point? Even if you only ran the play (instead of taking a delay) 20% of the time, it seems like it'd be worth it.

Still much more risk running said play: snap goes over QB's head, QB fumbles snap, QB wiffs on the play, QB is stuffed, QB throws pick and they take it the other way for 2, etc., etc.

Snap goes over holder's head, holder fumbles the snap, holder leaves laces pointing towards kicker, kicker mishits(whiffs) ball, kick is blocked and returned for two, etc, etc
Just playing devil's advocate but if you are looking at everything that can go wrong no offense would throw a pass either.

Uhm, they pass all the time for 2, often that dadgum fade thing in the corner, a play that I generally can't stand.
With the new rule, PAT's in the NFL are @ ~96%, down from ~99%. You take the point, you keep your job, everybody's happy.

 

[lo country]

When the national title is on the line and you wish to leave no doubt. Gutsiest call. Ever IMO.

 

[Nebfanatic]

For a long time now I've thought you could set up for a play, have the QB call for motion, and then decide whether to kick or run the play based on the QB's read. If the D didn't react to the motion correctly, and you ended up with a mismatch, he would run the play. Otherwise, the QB would take the delay penalty, and you'd just kick a 7 yard extra point. If I was coaching I'd seriously consider doing this every time. I mean, how often would you miss a 7 yard extra point? Even if you only ran the play (instead of taking a delay) 20% of the time, it seems like it'd be worth it.

Still much more risk running said play: snap goes over QB's head, QB fumbles snap, QB wiffs on the play, QB is stuffed, QB throws pick and they take it the other way for 2, etc., etc.

Snap goes over holder's head, holder fumbles the snap, holder leaves laces pointing towards kicker, kicker mishits(whiffs) ball, kick is blocked and returned for two, etc, etc
Just playing devil's advocate but if you are looking at everything that can go wrong no offense would throw a pass either.

Uhm, they pass all the time for 2, often that dadgum fade thing in the corner, a play that I generally can't stand.
With the new rule, PAT's in the NFL are @ ~96%, down from ~99%. You take the point, you keep your job, everybody's happy.

and 2 point conversions this year were at 55% so if you stretch that over 100 extra point tries you get 110 points going for 2 every time and 96 going for 1. That's 2 extra touchdowns and PATs

 

[The Big Nebrowski]

Here's a HS coach who goes for 2, never punts, kicks onsides all the time and other crazy stuff. His unorthodox style is based on statistical analysis and proves him either a mad scientist or genius......

http://footballscoop.com/news/espn-caught-up-with-kevin-kelley-the-hs-coach-who-never-punts-to-see-how-his-latest-idea-has-worked-out/

http://footballscoop.com/news/pulaski-academys-kevin-kelley-aka-mr-never-punt-has-a-crazy-new-offensive-innovation/

I heard about that guy. Well, it's h.s. And for one, alotta h.s. teams don't have squat for a kicker. Anyway, I haven't seen his style take off anywhere and I doubt it will. Fun for h.s. kids and fans though.

 

[The Big Nebrowski]

Here's a HS coach who goes for 2, never punts, kicks onsides all the time and other crazy stuff. His unorthodox style is based on statistical analysis and proves him either a mad scientist or genius......

http://footballscoop.com/news/espn-caught-up-with-kevin-kelley-the-hs-coach-who-never-punts-to-see-how-his-latest-idea-has-worked-out/

http://footballscoop.com/news/pulaski-academys-kevin-kelley-aka-mr-never-punt-has-a-crazy-new-offensive-innovation/

I heard about that guy. Well, it's h.s. And for one, alotta h.s. teams don't have squat for a kicker. Anyway, I haven't seen his style take off anywhere and I doubt it will. Fun for h.s. kids and fans though.
It's like that wacky O they were doing out there for awhile, the "A-11" or something, guys spread in clusters all over the place. A fad.

 

[The Big Nebrowski]

For a long time now I've thought you could set up for a play, have the QB call for motion, and then decide whether to kick or run the play based on the QB's read. If the D didn't react to the motion correctly, and you ended up with a mismatch, he would run the play. Otherwise, the QB would take the delay penalty, and you'd just kick a 7 yard extra point. If I was coaching I'd seriously consider doing this every time. I mean, how often would you miss a 7 yard extra point? Even if you only ran the play (instead of taking a delay) 20% of the time, it seems like it'd be worth it.

Still much more risk running said play: snap goes over QB's head, QB fumbles snap, QB wiffs on the play, QB is stuffed, QB throws pick and they take it the other way for 2, etc., etc.

Snap goes over holder's head, holder fumbles the snap, holder leaves laces pointing towards kicker, kicker mishits(whiffs) ball, kick is blocked and returned for two, etc, etc
Just playing devil's advocate but if you are looking at everything that can go wrong no offense would throw a pass either.

Uhm, they pass all the time for 2, often that dadgum fade thing in the corner, a play that I generally can't stand.
With the new rule, PAT's in the NFL are @ ~96%, down from ~99%. You take the point, you keep your job, everybody's happy.

and 2 point conversions this year were at 55% so if you stretch that over 100 extra point tries you get 110 points going for 2 every time and 96 going for 1. That's 2 extra touchdowns and PATs

First of all, OR went for 4 agin us and got 1--that's 25% and they basically handed us the W.
Second, I don't think you can extrapolate as such because their data is based on a small sample size where teams are going for 2 only sparingly, in the correct situations. If teams start doing it all the time instead of the PAT, in all likelihood, that % goes down significantly to ~30% or so.

Also, in the real world, scoring opportunities don't happen in a consistent flow like appear on hypothetically data sheets. One game you might go 2/4, next game, 1/3, next 2/6, next game 2/5, etc. Whereas, with PATs, your're getting all or nearly all the the PATs every game. Some of those pro kickers bat @ 100%/year.

Hey, if some O guy can figure out an unstoppable play(s) for 2, by all means, do it.