Who wins the Big Ten East?

[Excel]

We're about half way through the off-season and there's already been some discussion about the B1G-West but who will win the East?

NOTE: Penn State is ineligible to participate in the Conference Championship game but they can still finish first in the division.

The new division will include the following teams:

- Indiana

- Maryland

- Michigan

- Michigan State

- Ohio State

- Penn State

- Rutgers

Returning Starters (from Phil Steele, his numbers may not be perfect but it is what it is)

Rank/Team/Total/Offense/Defense

1. Indiana 18/8/10

2. Maryland 17/8/9

3. Rutgers 16/9/7

t4. Penn State 15/7/8

t4. Michigan 15/7/8

6. Ohio State 15/5/7

7. Michigan State 11/7/4

2014 Strength/Difficulty of Schedule (LINK, based on the win percentage of each opponent in 2013)

Rank/Team/Opponents' 2013 win percentage

1. Rutgers - 62.58%

2. Indiana - 59.24%

3. Ohio State - 56.86%

4. Maryland - 56.21%

5. Michigan State - 53.90%

6. Michigan - 53.29%

7. Penn State - 51.97%

2013 Record

1. Michigan State 13-1

2. Ohio State 12-2

3. Michigan 8-5

4. Penn State 7-5

5. Maryland 7-6

6. Rutgers 6-7

7. Indiana 5-7

2013 Close Games - LINK, IMO a team that had a bunch of close losses is more likely to improve its win total in the next season...sorted by most close losses margin (close losses - close wins)...I didn't include bowl games in that

Rank/Team/Margin/Close Losses/Close Games/Close Wins

1. Indiana 2/2/2/0

2. Michigan State 1/1/1/0

3. Michigan 0/3/6/3

4. Maryland -1/1/3/2

t5. Ohio State -2/0/2/2

t5. Rutgers -2/1/4/3

t5. Penn State -2/2/6/4

2013 Turnover Margin - Similar to the Close Games margin, IMO a team with a better turnover margin in 2013 may have difficulty maintaining that margin and by extension winning as many games in 2014

Rank/Team/Turnover margin/Turnovers gained/Turnovers lost

1. Rutgers 10/32/22

2. Penn State 9/22/13

3. Ohio State 3/21/18

4. Michigan State 2/20/18

5. Indiana -3/13/16

6. Michigan -9/18/27

7. Maryland -10/20/30

Crossover games with the B1G West:

- Indiana: @ Iowa, Purdue

- Maryland: Iowa, @ Wisconsin

- Michigan: Minnesota, @ Northwestern

- Michigan State: Nebraska, @ Purdue

- Ohio State: Illinois, @ Minnesota

- Penn State: @ Illinois, Northwestern

- Rutgers: @ Nebraska, Wisconsin

The full schedules:

INDIANA

vs. Indiana State

BYE

@ Bowling Green

@ Missouri

Maryland

@ Iowa

Michigan State

BYE

@ Michigan

Penn State

@ Rutgers

@ Ohio State

Purdue

MARYLAND

James Madison

@ South Florida

WVU

@ Syracuse

@ Indiana

Ohio State

BYE

Iowa

@ Wisconsin

@ Penn State

BYE

Michigan State

@ Michigan

Rutgers

MICHIGAN

Appalachian State

@ Notre Dame

Miami (OH)

Utah

Minnesota

@ Rutgers

Penn State

BYE

@ Michigan State

Indiana

@ Northwestern

BYE

Maryland

@ Ohio State

MICHIGAN STATE

Jacksonville State

@ Oregon

BYE

Eastern Michigan

Wyoming

Nebraska

@ Purdue

@ Indiana

Michigan

BYE

Ohio State

@ Maryland

Rutgers

@ Penn State

OHIO STATE

vs. Navy (Baltimore, MD)

Virginia Tech

Kent State

BYE

Cincinnati

@ Maryland

BYE

Rutgers

@ Penn State

Illinois

@ Michigan State

@ Minnesota

Indiana

Michigan

PENN STATE

UCF

Akron

@ Rutgers

UMass

Northwestern

BYE

@ Michigan

BYE

Ohio State

Maryland

@ Indiana

Temple

@ Illinois

Michigan State

RUTGERS

Washington State (Seattle, WA)

Howard

Penn State

@ Navy

Tulane

Michigan

BYE

@ Ohio State

@ Nebraska

Wisconsin

BYE

Indiana

@ Michigan State

@ Maryland

The coaches

Combined years spent in position at school by HC, OC and DC (includes Co's, does not count 2014):

Michigan State: 16

Ohio State: 14

Indiana: 7

Maryland: 7

Michigan: 6

Rutgers: 2

Penn State: 0

Indiana

HC - Kevin Wilson, 4th year, 10-26, 5-19 at Indiana, Previously OC at Oklahoma

OC - Kevin Johns, 4th year, Previously WR coach at Northwestern

co-DC - William Inge, 2nd year, Previously DL coach for the Buffalo Bills

co-DC - Brian Knorr, 1st year, Previously DC at Wake Forest

Maryland

HC - Randy Edsall, 4th year, 13-24, 6-18 at Maryland, Previously HC at UConn (74-70)

OC - Mike Locksley, 3rd year, Previously HC at New Mexico (2-26)

DC - Brian Stewart, 3rd year, Previously DC at Houston

Michigan

HC - Brady Hoke, 4th year, 26-13, 15-9, Previously HC at SDSU (13-12)

OC - Doug Nussmeier, 1st year, Previously OC at Alabama

DC - Greg Mattison, 4th year, Previously DC for the Baltimore Ravens

Michigan State

HC - Mark Dantonio, 8th year, 64-29, 38-18, Previously HC at Cincinnati (18-17)

co-OC - Dave Warner, 2nd year as co-OC (8th at MSU), Previously QB coach at Cincinnati

co-OC - Jim Bollman, 2nd year, Previously OL coach at Boston College

DC - Pat Narduzzi, 8th year, Previously DC at Cincinnati

Ohio State

HC - Urban Meyer, 3rd year, 24-2, 16-0, Previously HC at Florida (65-15)

co-OC - Tom Herman, 3rd year, Previously OC at Iowa State

co-OC - Ed Warriner, 3rd year, Previously OL coach at Notre Dame

co-DC - Luke Fickell, 12th year at OSU, DC from '05-'10 and '12-present.

co-DC - Chris Ash, 1st year, Previously DC at Arkansas

Penn State

HC - James Franklin, 1st year, Previously HC at Vanderbilt (24-15)

OC - John Donovan, 1st year, Previously HC at Vanderbilt

DC - Bob Shoop, 1st year, Previously DC at Vanderbilt

Rutgers

HC - Kyle Flood, 3rd year as HC, 9th year at Rutgers, 15-11, 8-7, Previously OL coach at Rutgers OL coach at Delaware

OC - Ralph Friedgen, 1st year, Previously HC at Maryland (75-50)

DC - Joe Rossi, 1st year as DC, 3rd year at Rutgers, Previously ST at Rutgers and DC at Maine

Past Recruiting Class Rankings 2010-2014, sorted by best collective score to worst (as ranked by rivals)

Rank/Team/total/'10/'11/'12/'13/'14

1. Ohio State 45/25/11/4/2/3

2. Michigan 84/20/21/7/5/31

3. Michigan State 164/30/31/41/40/22

4. Penn State 168/12/35/51/43/24

5. Maryland 200/36/43/35/33/53

6. Rutgers 222/64/32/24/45/57

7. Indiana: 296/93/60/67/38/38

Wins over the last ten years: (Counts vacated wins)

 

[Excel]

Random thoughts:

- I never realized how stable Dantonio's staff is and how they're all his guys. That's pretty cool.

- Either it's unique to Ohio State or Urban Meyer doesn't have much confidence in his coordinators but OSU is the only team with two co-DC's and two co-OC's. He didn't have that setup at UF.

- It will be interesting to see what Indiana does next year. Kevin Wilson has increased their win total each season, they have winnable cross-division games, the third most senior staff in the B1G, the most returning starters and they've been recruiting much better.....but they also have the second toughest schedule in their division next year.

- I think it's a make it or break it year for Hoke. These are his players now and he needs to win with them. He only beat OSU in their down year in 2011. He's 1-2 in bowls with those two loses to teams that Michigan really should've beat and not only has he not won his division he's slipping with the Wolverines sliding to fourth in the division last year. I think the dude has to win something big or he's gone.

- Rutgers and Maryland really got slammed in the scheduling. Tough cross-division opponents and all of their tough games strung together one after another. It'll be a tough first year for them.

- Penn State lucked out in scheduling getting BYE weeks before two of their toughest games; Michigan and Ohio State.

 

[OH HSKR FAN]

I think it will boil down to Ohio State and Michigan State.

 

[Excel]

Athlon early predictions

East

1. Ohio State

2. Michigan State

3. Michigan

4. Penn State

5. Maryland

6. Indiana

7. Rutgers

Rant Sports predictions for the Big Ten

1. Maryland and Rutgers will win five combined games in conference

2. Maryland will beat Michigan

3. Michigan State will win the Big Ten

4. Michigan State will be included in the National Playoffs

 

[Landlord]

- Rutgers and Maryland really got slammed in the scheduling. Tough cross-division opponents and all of their tough games strung together one after another. It'll be a tough first year for them.

Yeah the B1G isn't known to be very forgiving to it's newest members.

 

[Excel]

- Rutgers and Maryland really got slammed in the scheduling. Tough cross-division opponents and all of their tough games strung together one after another. It'll be a tough first year for them.

Yeah the B1G isn't known to be very forgiving to it's newest members.

Nah the conference is too forgiving. New members should have to play every conference game on the road for at least five years with no revenue sharing.

 

[Landlord]

- Rutgers and Maryland really got slammed in the scheduling. Tough cross-division opponents and all of their tough games strung together one after another. It'll be a tough first year for them.

Yeah the B1G isn't known to be very forgiving to it's newest members.

Nah the conference is too forgiving. New members should have to play every conference game on the road for at least five years with no revenue sharing.

 

[Something Clever]

Damn Bucky, this is quite in-depth for an April post. Has it been that boring since the final four?

 

[Excel]

Damn Bucky, this is quite in-depth for an April post. Has it been that boring since the final four?

Yes.

 

[zoogs]

Bucky doing research!

The East looks like such a power division compared to the West. I know it's cyclical and all, but there's Nebraska and Wisconsin in the West. After that, what, Iowa?...meanwhile, the East has Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State.

This year it's got to come down to Meyer vs Dantonio though. Gonna have to go with Ohio State (look at their cross division opponents, too!). Nebraska will win the West, naturally.

 

[Excel]

Bucky doing research!

The East looks like such a power division compared to the West. I know it's cyclical and all, but there's Nebraska and Wisconsin in the West. After that, what, Iowa?...meanwhile, the East has Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State.

This year it's got to come down to Meyer vs Dantonio though. Gonna have to go with Ohio State (look at their cross division opponents, too!). Nebraska will win the West, naturally.

It definitely looks like the Big XII North in some ways. On one hand I'm disappointed that we're not going to get to play some of those East teams as often but on the other hand we don't have to play Rutgers and Maryland as often and should have more success.

I originally voted Michigan but I'm not sure what i was thinking and changed my vote to Ohio State. I want Michigan State to win out, (they're my favorite team in the East) but I think they're losing too much. I'm also rooting hard for Indiana, I want them to do well and I think they will.

 

[Ulty]

I think it comes down to Ohio State and Michigan State as well. And it could come down to something as simple as scheduling. These two play on November 8. I know the conference is allowing night games in November now if everyone wants to do it, but we still aren't seeing it happen too much. But night games in the Big Ten are almost guaranteed victories at home (I'm too lazy to look up actual results, but I'd like to see record on night games, especially between the top teams). If Michigan State can manage to get that November 8 game at night, they win the division. If not, Ohio State can come in there and win.

 

[TonyStalloni]

The Big Ten didn't do Rutgers any favors this year. Kinda looks like our schedule the first two years.

 

[deedsker]

Right now I would say:

1. Ohio State

2. Michigan State

3. Penn State

4. Indiana

5. Michigan

6. Rutgers

7. Maryland

This whole division is a crapshoot, imo.

 

[HuskerShark]

Michigan State and Ohio State will both be pretty formidable. If tOSU can shore up their defense, they will be a scary team to play. Braxton is an extremely tough player to stop.