Why It's Not as Bad as It Feels

[JJ Husker]

I don’t know if Riley would be 0-2 or not. He was fired, he performed poorly enough to be fired and he was. 

Blaming him for this start seems a little far flung when it seems to be consensus that our turnover margins have cost Nebraska their first two games and the people who have committed them, Adrian Martinez, Bunch, Bell, et al, aren’t Riley guys. 

That’s not a previous staff/culture thing. That may exist, but there’s been no shortage of roster turnover and talk of buy in that the “fix what Riley broke” trope seems forced. 

I don't see a whole lot of blaming Riley for this start. Sure he drove the program further into the ditch and didn't leave much to work with but I don't see many using that as some excuse for Frost. it's just a fact of where the program was at when Frost took over. HCSF may have mentioned a few times what the previous regime left behind or did was not ideal but don't mistake facts for excuse making.

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

Nebraska is #43 in yards per game and #39 in yards allowed per game. 

Generally there's a pretty strong correlation between yards per game and points per game. Through 3 weeks of this season, that correlation is very strong (.82). The closer to +/- 1, the stronger the relationship between the values. As Mavric said, Nebraska's difference in yards per game and points per game sort of defies that correlation so far. 

 

[Undone]

Nebraska is #43 in yards per game and #39 in yards allowed per game. 

Generally there's a pretty strong correlation between yards per game and points per game. Through 3 weeks of this season, that correlation is very strong (.82). The closer to +/- 1, the stronger the relationship between the values. As Mavric said, Nebraska's difference in yards per game and points per game sort of defies that correlation so far. 

Yes. And I couldn't believe we didn't get into the end zone where we wound up kicking for a missed field goal. 

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

As Mavric said, Nebraska's difference in yards per game and points per game sort of defies that correlation so far. 

A lot of teams in the NCAA and NFL are known for having Red Zone problems. That's the real chess game between OCs and DCs. Some OCs abandon the schemes that get them inside the 20, but then again, DCs usually tighten up, with the DBs not having to be worried about getting beat deep. Actually Bunch threw a bullet to Morgan in a tiny window for that touchdown, an NFL worthy pass, If you know you can do that, you're inclined to try it again. But you can't abandon the run game either.

Should get better with a fixed quarterback and a lot more familiarity. I don't think the play-calling has been that bad. Red Zone calls are tough.

 

[Undone]

And you'd hope in the Red Zone that you can lean on your experienced offensive line to plow some running lanes. We just couldn't do it on the drive where we wound up kicking for the missed field goal. Honestly, that was really the difference in the game.

 

[MountainMan]

I don't see a whole lot of blaming Riley for this start. Sure he drove the program further into the ditch and didn't leave much to work with but I don't see many using that as some excuse for Frost. it's just a fact of where the program was at when Frost took over. HCSF may have mentioned a few times what the previous regime left behind or did was not ideal but don't mistake facts for excuse making.

There was a direct response to what I said saying this was “Riley’s mess”. Which I reiterate is weird because none of the biggest offenders in the turnover department are Riley Guys. 

 

[Scarlet Overkill]

Back to the original topic .... boil it down to this -- erase 2 or 3 mistakes, and we're 2-0..  Takes time to develop better habits.

 

[krc1995]

Obviously things haven't worked out well so far.

But we are actually doing a lot of things well.  It's mostly that the few things we aren't doing well are having a huge impact on the games.

Yes, those things need to be fixed.  But I think we're actually playing a lot better than the results show - as Frost said.

Here are the stats to back it up:

We are #43 in the country in Yards per Game.  Not great but we were #3 in the country after one game and took a nose dive when he had to play our backup QB.  But we are #103 in the country in Points per Game.  That's a 60 rank difference between how our offense is moving the ball and how we're scoring.  That is the second-worst rank difference in the nation (Purdue is 67 spots worse).  If we can keep moving the ball like that, the points will come.

And the crazy thing is it's almost the exact same story on defense.  We are #39 in the country in Yards Allowed per game.  Again, not great.  But we are #90 in the country in Points Allowed per Game.  That's 51 spots worse and that is the worst difference in the country.  

Points are obviously what wins and loses games.  But I've long said that yards are a better indication of future success.  Points can be fluky - special teams and defensive TDs come and go, especially on a small sample size.  And turnovers can change field position in a hurry.  But if you're good in the the yards categories - or, in our case, much better than the points have shown - chances are things will even out.

I think we'll see a regression to the mean going forward.  Which in this case is a good thing for us.  Maybe not this weekend as we play our toughest opponent so far.  But it will show up soon.

Where can I go to look up these stats?  Just curious how many spots we climb if we make those couple of field goals. 

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

I love that we've reestablished a running game, and I think Washington looks like the real deal, with better depth in Bell and Ozigbo than we've had in ages. 

In two games the offensive line has created running lanes for big rushing totals and per carry averages. So we know they can do it. We just can't announce our intention to run, because we aren't good enough to over-power defenses that know what's coming. That's why will still have to pass in the fourth quarter, on plays where fans think a 3rd and two is simple. 

 

[Undone]

I love that we've reestablished a running game, and I think Washington looks like the real deal, with better depth in Bell and Ozigbo than we've had in ages. 

In two games the offensive line has created running lanes for big rushing totals and per carry averages. So we know they can do it. We just can't announce our intention to run, because we aren't good enough to over-power defenses that know what's coming. That's why will still have to pass in the fourth quarter, on plays where fans think a 3rd and two is simple. 

Yes. And surely not having Martinez in the game contributes to this. With Martinez in the game, the edge blitz doesn't come as often because defenses know that he can just side-step that s*** like it's nothing (see his first touchdown last week) and gash them. 

Despite what Frost might say to the contrary, I suspect that we have a bit of a crippled playbook with Bunch in the game combined with getting the box stacked more often. Hard to consistently have success with inside zone running in this scenario. This is why I was screaming yesterday in the second quarter to throw the WR screen. When we did that on that first successful drive, the field opened up. But we just couldn't capitalize on 3rd and shorts too often yesterday to get into the red zone enough.

It's going to be really interesting to see who starts against Michigan...

 

[Scarlet Overkill]

I love that we've reestablished a running game, and I think Washington looks like the real deal, with better depth in Bell and Ozigbo than we've had in ages. 

In two games the offensive line has created running lanes for big rushing totals and per carry averages. So we know they can do it. We just can't announce our intention to run, because we aren't good enough to over-power defenses that know what's coming. That's why will still have to pass in the fourth quarter, on plays where fans think a 3rd and two is simple. 

Yeah, the lack of ability to pick up first downs in short yardage is a little concerning right now.  I agree - maybe time to start throwing in a few passing plays to mix it up.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

Back to the original topic .... boil it down to this -- erase 2 or 3 mistakes, and we're 2-0..  Takes time to develop better habits.

Troy went up 17 - 0. Nebraska fought back, but Troy buckled down and reestablished an 11 point lead in the fourth quarter. Nebraska needed a touchdown in the last two minutes and didn't get close. We had multiple opportunities to put Colorado away, and multiple mistakes that kept them in the game. 

Better habits? Absolutely. Close games? Sure. I just don't think you want Frost or the team thinking it was a matter of two or three mistakes. 

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

Yes. And surely not having Martinez in the game contributes to this. With Martinez in the game, the edge blitz doesn't come as often because defenses know that he can just side-step that s*** like it's nothing (see his first touchdown last week) and gash them. 

Despite what Frost might say to the contrary, I suspect that we have a bit of a crippled playbook with Bunch in the game combined with getting the box stacked more often. Hard to consistently have success with inside zone running in this scenario. This is why I was screaming yesterday in the second quarter to throw the WR screen. When we did that on that first successful drive, the field opened up. But we just couldn't capitalize on 3rd and shorts too often yesterday to get into the red zone enough.

It's going to be really interesting to see who starts against Michigan...

Yeah, it's too bad because the coaches are actually pretty high on Bunch's running ability --- they expect him to pull off a lot of the same plays designed for Martinez.

But I gotta think they're really nervous about seeing their third-string quarterback in the open field, and having to turn to their fourth string quarterback. 

 

[Redux]

You wanna know how I know that it's not as bad as it feels.  Two reasons really:

1) Both games this season, I've been pissed about the outcome instead of indifferent.

2) I feel better about this 0-2 team than I did the 2016 7-0 team

 

[84HuskerLaw]

Troy went up 17 - 0. Nebraska fought back, but Troy buckled down and reestablished an 11 point lead in the fourth quarter. Nebraska needed a touchdown in the last two minutes and didn't get close. We had multiple opportunities to put Colorado away, and multiple mistakes that kept them in the game. 

Better habits? Absolutely. Close games? Sure. I just don't think you want Frost or the team thinking it was a matter of two or three mistakes. 

Agree that the underlying issues are not just a handful of fumbles/ints/penalties.   It is about 20 or more things that combined to work against us in both games.   I believe if we played both teams ten times, we COULD win a majority (65% or so) but that would assume of course that these miscues would over that many games somewhat balance out and half the time tend to favor us.   Colorado had a QB as good as ours or better with his experience edge.   I would tend to think that Colorado and Troy are pretty evenly matched and might split a ten game series 5 wins each.  The concern for most looking back and then forward to our remaining season is that these games were viewed by most to be our 'easiest' wins.   Maybe the Big Ten was again overrated and we'll find two or three teams up coming that we can clean up our games, play our very best, and grab wins?   Maybe.   But, immediately following the Troy game, I am guessing that most fans would have felt that God awful sinking feeling that it only gets worse going forward.  And nobody felt that Bunch was going to be suffient to fill in for Martinez without (apparently) an honest to goodness running threat in his game.  

Frost's offense (based on what we've actually seen of it anyway) seems acutely dependent on the QB to have great escapability and run skills as well as good throwing of short range passes and quick thinking/readying capability.   No experience young QBs make more mistakes more often than veteran QBs.  We don't have Mr Reliable right now and maybe we don't have Martinez for the foreseeable (we have no information to go on).  Bunch may be 'the man' for several weeks or months.   If so, the chances of winning many games dropped, in the eyes and minds of most fans, precipitously Saturday.   

We all (I think) desperately want Frost and Co to be gloriously successful and the sooner the better.   And panic is not all that surprising after the first three weeks.  It seems that almost everything that can go wrong this fall has happened.   That reasonably creates major concerns.