Will COVID Trigger a Massive College Football Realignment?

Bledred

Bledred

Five-Star Recruit
The talking heads have been eluding to this for years now.  A massive college football conference realignment is not a question of if but when.  They were mostly pointing to a few years from now when the television contracts for several conferences are due for renewal, but could COVID and the resulting financial hardship consequences start that process earlier?  I believe it will. 

As many have pointed out already, we are looking at a very likely canceled football season.  A very real likelihood: in the first game week, a few players (or fans) get COVID and boom, done.  Schools race to announce canceling their season to 'protect their players and fans' left and right and the unstoppable dominoes begin to fall.  Not a very hard scenario to imagine.  Billions in revenue gone in a blink of an eye.  Now what do they do with all of this down time?  I firmly believe there will be teams moving to power 5 conferences as they each race to position themselves for the biggest payout when their contract is renewed, given the very real potential losses just over the horizon. 

Who do you think goes where?  I hope ND joins the B1G, we already have them in hockey.  I also would like to see Kansas and Kansas State join along with Iowa State.  

 
Bledred said:
The talking heads have been eluding to this for years now.  A massive college football conference realignment is not a question of if but when.  They were mostly pointing to a few years from now when the television contracts for several conferences are due for renewal, but could COVID and the resulting financial hardship consequences start that process earlier?  I believe it will. 

As many have pointed out already, we are looking at a very likely canceled football season.  A very real likelihood: in the first game week, a few players (or fans) get COVID and boom, done.  Schools race to announce canceling their season to 'protect their players and fans' left and right and the unstoppable dominoes begin to fall.  Not a very hard scenario to imagine.  Billions in revenue gone in a blink of an eye.  Now what do they do with all of this down time?  I firmly believe there will be teams moving to power 5 conferences as they each race to position themselves for the biggest payout when their contract is renewed, given the very real potential losses just over the horizon. 

Who do you think goes where?  I hope ND joins the B1G, we already have them in hockey.  I also would like to see Kansas and Kansas State join along with Iowa State.  
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Even if there is zero football played this year, those TV contracts are still worth hundreds of millions of dollars over the next few years. I doubt this unforeseen blip drastically alters the landscape of football.

BUT, who knows? Let's say it's possible. And you're right - there's been rumors for years that realignment is possible. So what would that look like?

Based purely on personal preference, I think we should cut the FBS in half. There are WAY too many teams. The G5 should not be in the same conference as the P5. 

You'd have:

ACC - 14 teams

Big XII - 10 teams

Big Ten - 14 teams

SEC - 14 teams

Pac-12 - 12 teams 

That's 64 teams to schedule with, and only with. Much more compelling games overall, no more of those late-season SEC powderpuff games where they take a break in the middle of their schedule, every game matters more. 

The G5 would scream about that, because most of them play payday games at big venues to get slaughtered, but to help fund their athletic departments for the year. That's an unfortunate thing, but 120-130 teams in one subdivision is just stupid, and none of the G5 have a chance at winning a national championship anyway. 

 
I just have to ask, if there are severely limited or no ticket sales, where is the billions in revenue coming from? TV contracts perhaps but as knapplc pointed out, those will remain intact regardless of what happens this season. How severely is the cash flow going to be affected if the season is played? I can't imagine if they ban fans people will still flock to the city to watch the game in a bar. Seems like the economic impact will be pretty substantial even if the season is played. 

 
I have thought for years the P5 become 4 conferences, each with 2 - 8 team divisions.  There should be 64 teams (16 per conference).  The new “college sports league” it could be called, should withdraw from the NCAA and run itself.  As such, it would become the primary college level athletic org.  

All others would be left behind, akin to the Div II or Ivy league etc. 

The smaller schools could function however, but as a practical and fiscal matter, would be irrelevant to major sports generally.   

Probably very little fan, TV, etc value.  Some schools get forgotten but there is only so much room in the sports market.  There are far too many already. 

64 teams. 4 conferences.   Rotating inter conference schedules.  Playoffs with the usual tourney selections.  Equal rosters and scholarship #s.  Rotating divisional memberships.  Equal revenue sharing adjusted for stadium attendance sizes etc.  

Playoff games with 4 conferences’ champions and 3 runners up (16 teams).   One clear champion.  Lots of competition. TV value approaching the NFL.  

All members required to seat 60,000 or more stadiums.  All offer 24 sports.  All for one - one for all.  

Voting for rules, limits, academic rules - the entire gamut.  

Simple,  Done.  

 
knapplc said:
Even if there is zero football played this year, those TV contracts are still worth hundreds of millions of dollars over the next few years. I doubt this unforeseen blip drastically alters the landscape of football.

BUT, who knows? Let's say it's possible. And you're right - there's been rumors for years that realignment is possible. So what would that look like?

Based purely on personal preference, I think we should cut the FBS in half. There are WAY too many teams. The G5 should not be in the same conference as the P5. 

You'd have:

ACC - 14 teams

Big XII - 10 teams

Big Ten - 14 teams

SEC - 14 teams

Pac-12 - 12 teams 

That's 64 teams to schedule with, and only with. Much more compelling games overall, no more of those late-season SEC powderpuff games where they take a break in the middle of their schedule, every game matters more. 

The G5 would scream about that, because most of them play payday games at big venues to get slaughtered, but to help fund their athletic departments for the year. That's an unfortunate thing, but 120-130 teams in one subdivision is just stupid, and none of the G5 have a chance at winning a national championship anyway. 
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I fully agree.  I have been for downsizing what used to be called Division I Football for many years.  Why have teams in a 'division' if there is zero chance they will ever compete for a championship in that division?  Cutting it in half and would be a good start.  Crowning a P5 National Champion and a G5 National Champion would work just fine.  the G5 teams would very much love to actually play for a National Championship rather than watch the P5 teams play for one every year.  Get rid of the Independents and form 5 super conferences.  

Scheduling will be the key factor in getting the whole thing to break in half.  If the P5 teams only schedule other P5 teams and do away with the non-conference pay-to-win scheduled teams, then the break will happen very easily.  If you have the top half of the very best teams who never play the bottom half, then the bottom half will break away and form their own championship tourney..as well they should.  

In regards to the P5 super conferences, I think we are looking at that happening here very soon.  If not starting this year and coming to a crescendo in a few years time when the contracts are up.  Nobody is going to be switching boats this year or even next year, but the decisions behind closed doors will defiantly be in the works.  We did not leave the Big 12 over night. 

 
Bledred said:
I fully agree.  I have been for downsizing what used to be called Division I Football for many years.  Why have teams in a 'division' if there is zero chance they will ever compete for a championship in that division?  Cutting it in half and would be a good start.  Crowning a P5 National Champion and a G5 National Champion would work just fine.  the G5 teams would very much love to actually play for a National Championship rather than watch the P5 teams play for one every year.  Get rid of the Independents and form 5 super conferences.  
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I think that, especially if they did a playoff, would be fantastic and would make a much more compelling post-season than the meaningless bowls we have now.  I mean, there would still be plenty of meaningless bowls (and I'll watch them) but viewership would increase for a G5 playoff if for no other reason than that it matters. 

 
84HuskerLaw said:
I have thought for years the P5 become 4 conferences, each with 2 - 8 team divisions.  There should be 64 teams (16 per conference).  The new “college sports league” it could be called, should withdraw from the NCAA and run itself.  As such, it would become the primary college level athletic org.  

All others would be left behind, akin to the Div II or Ivy league etc. 

The smaller schools could function however, but as a practical and fiscal matter, would be irrelevant to major sports generally.   

Probably very little fan, TV, etc value.  Some schools get forgotten but there is only so much room in the sports market.  There are far too many already. 

64 teams. 4 conferences.   Rotating inter conference schedules.  Playoffs with the usual tourney selections.  Equal rosters and scholarship #s.  Rotating divisional memberships.  Equal revenue sharing adjusted for stadium attendance sizes etc.  

Playoff games with 4 conferences’ champions and 3 runners up (16 teams).   One clear champion.  Lots of competition. TV value approaching the NFL.  

All members required to seat 60,000 or more stadiums.  All offer 24 sports.  All for one - one for all.  

Voting for rules, limits, academic rules - the entire gamut.  

Simple,  Done.  
Click to expand...
In regards to getting rid of one of the P5 conferences may I suggest the Big 12?  lol

Never liked the school attendance determining who is in the FBS.  Stadium seating and sports offered would be a much better metric/benchmark for it would reflect school attendance AND local community financial support. 

Going through the BCS computer system and then the committee and then finally the playoff (albeit only 4 teams), one thing I have learned is that college football is slow to change and slower to consider change.  I remember cringing when I heard one of the BCS regulators say "if it is not broken, don't fix it", and proclaiming everything is perfectly fine when nearly the entire college football fan landscape was calling for a playoff. 

 
Not necessarily because of Covid, but I too have heard rumblings of "super conferences" for years. Maybe they will use this as a springboard to get it done.  

 
TV Networks/Schools involved in current contracts would have to be on board.  I would love to see it but I still think we are several years away.  

 
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I'm trying to remember who the guy was but he had what I (and a lot of people) thought was the best realignment idea. I'd be fine getting rid of the G5 schools. I get tired of hearing that "blank" team should be in the championship discussion when they played an FCS/D-2 schedule 

 
If FBS formally splits into two tiers with 64 teams or whatever, there needs to be a defined mechanism by which schools can gain and lose entry into the top tier. A school like KU goes winless in football this year? Tough luck, Appalachian State is taking your place in the league next year.

 
84HuskerLaw said:
I have thought for years the P5 become 4 conferences, each with 2 - 8 team divisions.  There should be 64 teams (16 per conference).  The new “college sports league” it could be called, should withdraw from the NCAA and run itself.  As such, it would become the primary college level athletic org.  

All others would be left behind, akin to the Div II or Ivy league etc. 

The smaller schools could function however, but as a practical and fiscal matter, would be irrelevant to major sports generally.   

Probably very little fan, TV, etc value.  Some schools get forgotten but there is only so much room in the sports market.  There are far too many already. 

64 teams. 4 conferences.   Rotating inter conference schedules.  Playoffs with the usual tourney selections.  Equal rosters and scholarship #s.  Rotating divisional memberships.  Equal revenue sharing adjusted for stadium attendance sizes etc.  

Playoff games with 4 conferences’ champions and 3 runners up (16 teams).   One clear champion.  Lots of competition. TV value approaching the NFL.  

All members required to seat 60,000 or more stadiums.  All offer 24 sports.  All for one - one for all.  

Voting for rules, limits, academic rules - the entire gamut.  

Simple,  Done.  
Click to expand...
I like it. But I would tweak it a bit. You have 4 conferences with 8 divisions. You would have 4 conference championship games that includes 8 teams. That would be the first round of the playoffs. The 4 conference winners go to the round of 4- just like we have now. This way ALL games still matter for the season. You win your division and your in. You dont- you are out. No wild card or At Large to give you a second chance. Take care of your business and you get your shot at the title.

 
Maybe we can start with a small step.  Maybe we can start by kicking Rutgers out of the Big 10??   Other than TV sets, - Why are they in this conference?   And I really wonder how many people watch them.   I think this was one big bad step by the Big 10.   

 
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