Will There Be a 2020 Football Season?

[Loe Doesnt Know]

Just a thought, maybe someone has mentioned this already but...

I think we all want the season and therefore will actively create any number of reasons to justify it. What I also know is one HUGE reason why it won't happen. Lawsuits.. Imagine if we can how many programs would be taken to court over a young athletes death. (Ugh.. I cringe even suggesting such a thing!!) Truth is, University's could become inundated by legal liability, among other factors if athletes and athlete's families are put at risk. Ask yourselves how fast could just one lawsuit absorb any profits gained?

 

[GBRFAN]

I voted no season, unless we somehow find a vaccine in the next few months which experts seem to indicate is very unlikely.

I don't think the no fans and games still played is a realistic scenario for a few reasons:

• Fan/Player Wise:  The vast majority would rather delay to return to normalcy instead of playing games in an empty stadium simply for the atmosphere affect.  Will I still tune in to watch husker football in a quiet empty stadium?  Sure, but I don't really know if I would really be as interested without the fan element and impact that has for big games, road games, etc.  So much of what makes college football great is the off the field aspects that are so unique to just college football.  It seems like coaches and players would rather push the season back to hopefully maintain this as opposed to sticking to the current schedule and playing in an empty stadium.
  
• How to handle player health:  All it takes is 1 confirmed case and that shuts down a team.  You shut down a team, that throws a wrench in the process for every single team on the schedule and within that conference.  You talk about hot spots around the country: how do we handle a scenario where half the country can't do anything while the other half could be in the clear?  You cant.  
  
• Recruiting Impact:  Similar to above- How do they handle recruiting?  You either have to shut it down for all or keep it open for all.  If states are under lockdown and prevents coaches from leaving or high schoolers from being recruited, that will create an inherently unfair advantage for schools who may be able to update a little more normal than others. 
  
• $$$ Talks- No fans in games=no game day revenue.  No game day revenue= major impact on local economy.  Downturn in live events=loss in merchandise revenue.  A degraded product= lost revenue for media platforms who fund a very large part of revenue for P5 conferences.  Perhaps media outlets such as ESPN stand to increase revenue on the premise that more people are at home and will be watching these no fan games, more ad revenue, viewers etc.... But what happens to that ad revenue if they have to shut the season down half way through and the largest $$$ producing evetns (playoffs, conf title games, champ game) arent played?  All of a sudden that is a hugeeeee chunk of revenue that is gone- revenue that ADs leverage when factoring in costs and expenses for the football program and great athletic department/university as a whole.
  

I want football back more than anything else.  But not at the expense of the greater public health.  If its looking like no fans are allowed due to health reasons, I'm not sure how you can then say its ok to have 160 football players on a field together in close contact with one another.

You do know that the players wear facemask- don't you?

 

[GBRFAN]

I don't know if we can automatically assume conferences and schools are still going to get pay outs or close to full pay outs as expected.  NBA and MLB commissioners and Players Association leaders have all commented on the direct cut they are all going to have to take due to significantly less revenue from media due to no games and a change in the process.  Before coronavirus, there was already a pretty large disparity between the 20 or so college programs that turn a profit and those that are losing money.  

You take away guaranteed money P5 conf teams get on top of that?  Not so sure ADs will automatically be able to act business as usual if the funds arent there in the same capacity.

While it might be easy to just assume TV revenue can make up for it, I don't necessarily know thats the case.  Nebraska is one of the few programs to turn a profit and is in an even smaller group that can fund the AD department without state/university funds.

When you consider the fact that the AD department had an 8 mil surplus under normal conditions and only 3 sports actually turned a profit (football, m bball and volleyball); I don't know how you can assume there isn't a monetary factor in play here when you're removing 90k fans paying good money 8 saturdays a year and the sponsorship money that also comes in from companies that want to place their logo and company name on various marketing avenues on gameday.  When you remove football which is, by far, the largest revenue driver, you find yourself which much harder business centric questions in a world where not everyone can get a free lunch.

https://www.omaha.com/sports/college/huskers/blogs/nebraska-top-25-nationally-but-middle-of-big-ten-in-athletic-department-revenues/article_a99caf1a-211c-57f9-9759-32c82dcbd328.html

NU’s revenues of $120,205,090 ranked seventh in the Big Ten. Its expenses — $112,571,632 — ranked 24th nationally and eighth in the league. Iowa’s revenues ($130,681,467) and expenses ($128,869,211) ranked 18th and 15th nationally, respectively.

https://nebraska.rivals.com/news/big-red-business-nebraska-s-financial-performance-paint-it-black

Shutting down the season doesn't just make the expenses go away like the revenue will.  Just as with a business - even when the doors are closed there are still expenses.  Some salaries get paid no matter what and there is this thing called "land (and building)" it's not free and you have to make payments whether its being used or not...

 

[gossamorharpy]

You do know that the players wear facemask- don't you?

lol, think its a different kind of face mask bud.  

 

[gossamorharpy]

Shutting down the season doesn't just make the expenses go away like the revenue will.  Just as with a business - even when the doors are closed there are still expenses.  Some salaries get paid no matter what and there is this thing called "land (and building)" it's not free and you have to make payments whether its being used or not...

Well aware of that but couple counter points.

This Land and building you bring up, its not like this is office space in Manhattan NY they are renting out- the expenses I was referring to have nothing do with stadium and land expenses which at this point are probably $0 to the university (outside of maintenance and upkeep) given its a state school and these grounds have been there for 150+ years.  I was more referring to money/costs associated with still having to pay coaches their salaries, S&C, logistic related positions (travel coordinators, AD/front office personnel that handle all of the behind the scenes work with running a season), marketing departments, splitting revenue with non conf schools who have to pay their way to Lincoln.    

there's never a scenario that would make the expenses go away... but you know what ADs and NCAA officials probably want to avoid?  Losing money on sunk costs with the assumption the revenue will still be there, only to find out the season gets paused halfway through and there goes that "revenue" the helps cover all of the costs detailed above.  If you really think execs at ESPN/ABC/Fox are still going to pay universities what they receive today, I've got beach front property in idaho i'd like to sell you 

Money will not be the main reason here, it will be a public health decision.  But I think its naive for someone to assume money implications don't factor into this equation

 

[gossamorharpy]

Just a thought, maybe someone has mentioned this already but...

I think we all want the season and therefore will actively create any number of reasons to justify it. What I also know is one HUGE reason why it won't happen. Lawsuits.. Imagine if we can how many programs would be taken to court over a young athletes death. (Ugh.. I cringe even suggesting such a thing!!) Truth is, University's could become inundated by legal liability, among other factors if athletes and athlete's families are put at risk. Ask yourselves how fast could just one lawsuit absorb any profits gained?

Solid point... Kind of aligns with one of the points i mentioned- all it takes is for 1 person to be severely ill from this to then shutdown the whole team.  Football aside, are universities really going to have an appetite to take on that risk for the sake of playing a game?  Sports fandom aside, I would hope more rational decisions are made tied to whats really important in the grand scheme of life

 

[BIG ERN]

Solid point... Kind of aligns with one of the points i mentioned- all it takes is for 1 person to be severely ill from this to then shutdown the whole team.  Football aside, are universities really going to have an appetite to take on that risk for the sake of playing a game?  Sports fandom aside, I would hope more rational decisions are made tied to whats really important in the grand scheme of life

I get there is a "pandemic" so the lawsuits are more justified but kind of silly notion when kids have died due to conditioning or paralayzed playing. Could also catch something from someone at college all the time. 

 

[lo country]

 So business as usual for MLB.

Haha. Yes

 

[teachercd]

I can't imagine the economic hit for Lincoln...I would guess that 50% of the bars/restaurants count of the 7 (8 home games if you count the spring game) to make them their cash...

I think I read that 10,000 people will go to Barry's on gameday.  You know that Mon-Thursday they are just trying to break even.  Those 7 home games are crucial for them.

 

[gossamorharpy]

I get there is a "pandemic" so the lawsuits are more justified but kind of silly notion when kids have died due to conditioning or paralayzed playing. Could also catch something from someone at college all the time. 

True, I think the potential legal issues they'd want to avoid tho is if they threw caution to the wind and something happens widespread in the team itself.  Similar to many large companies pushing their employees to work remote much sooner than the government stepped in, no one wants that situation both for the health of their people and for publicity reasons.

Also, the same question can be asked for "could also catch something from someone at college all the time".  That not might even be a possibility given there's a similar scenario being discussed where colleges and their greater student population will be going remote for the foreseeable future.  Truly crazy times these are

 

[Mavric]

[No message]

 

[Red Five]

2021 is going to be insane with 2 football seasons.  One from March to May and then the regular one starting in September.

 

[schriznoeder]

[No message]

 

[Decoy73]

Fans in attendance are out of the question, IMO.   So to have a season with just players, coaches and staff they would need to be either sequestered from the outside world(ain’t happening) or essentially daily testing (considering where we are now this seems not feasible) and this would have to be regulated in such a way to assure compliance at every institution—a logistical nightmare.   Plus think of the legal ramifications if a player(s) were to get sick and have a bad outcome.  
It sucks, but I just can’t fathom how they can make a 12 game season work.  Maybe they’ll get creative and do a few pay-per-view scrimmages or something. 
 

For those of you that predicted the 12 game season would happen, I’m very curious to know how you think it could be done.  

 

[84HuskerLaw]

a vaccine and mass inoculation prior to resumption of any large group activities seems the only course to get there, absent a large % of population “ herd immunity” finding coupled with a reliable treatment such chloroquine or ivermectin for example.  

We cant risk more large scale outbreaks assuming current self quarantine / isolation measures are relaxed.  

Imo there is a chance to get new case #s down to very low #s (say 10% of current levels) but scientific and med communities must ramp up production of drugs and so on to huge numbers distributed everywhere by June 10. (just 60 days - not long enough ?).  

By early fall is much more doable but too late for fall sports.  

games without fans with participation by only those with immunity via vaccine or prior recovery is possible but all would have to be screened for immunity.  

Not sure any priority would be given to the young most healthy persons before first tending to the most at risk groups.