Will There Be a 2020 Football Season?

[Decked]

I don't think the problem most schools are grappling with is whether an athlete gets seriously ill. They certainly have that in mind, but the larger issue is this. 

“For example, a cluster involving a collegiate sports team and their friends in Montana included 20 cases and 80 contacts in one county alone," Bullock said Wednesday. "The cluster was then later connected to additional cases in three other counties, by way of a wedding and other social events that people attended while infectious. The majority of cases were in younger individuals.”

https://www.ktvq.com/governor-montana-athletes-involved-in-coronavirus-cluster-and-spread

The problem with athletes playing and contracting the virus is the potential that they cause outbreaks in their local cities or ones they are visiting and pass the virus on to vulnerable people. That potential probably scares administrators. 

A team of 125 who are constantly tested versus the rest of the population of the university/local teenage/early 20s population kinda pales in comparison. 70% of my friends on Snapchat (21+) go out every weekend or every other weekend. It’s not deterring anyone of this age group. People still go to gyms, bars, and hang out with friends. If there is no structure in place they will still do it anyway.  At least there is something in place for them here. 

 

[Notre Dame Joe]

Here are some more opinions as to if a season can be achieved this fall.

https://www.si.com/college/2020/07/25/michigan-state-football-quarantine-coronavirus-contact-tracing

As written extensively in SI on Tuesday, the biggest obstacle for holding a college football season this fall isn’t the actual positive tests. It isn’t travel. It isn’t testing availability or delayed turnaround times (though those are real concerns). And it isn’t even the return in mid-August of thousands of students on campus (but that’s pretty significant, too). It is contact tracing, resulting in the potential shutdown of large swaths of a football team—or in Michigan State’s case, the entire team. “That’s a good example of what can happen,” a group of 5 athletic directors said Friday when told the news.


And while a 14-day quarantine is conservative, doctors say, it does follow along with CDC guidelines. Even with an early negative test, the virus can emerge on Day 13 or Day 14. It’s a safe and not sorry approach.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2020/07/25/college-football-programs-fighting-another-foe-mental-health/5505241002/

It would also help if schools went ahead and made a decision about the season rather than leaving weeks and weeks of uncertainty and pushing the start of the season back in increments. In other words, if ultimately the football season didn't happen this fall, it would likely be better from a mental health standpoint for players to have some certainty rather than continually having hope pulled away from them.

 “I think all of us are looking for some control in this situation and it’s a situation we don’t have any control over,” Auerbach said. “The research would say people would be better off knowing so they can plan for it and adjust and adapt rather than dragging it out and drawing on people’s heartstrings and stress and anxiety. So it’s a situation of acute stress finding out right way and dealing with the stress of probably very high magnitude versus having this chronic stress and not being sure what it means. Most people would be better with it being an acute issue than adjusting and pivoting and a lot of college athletics staffs would pivot around it too if they knew right away.





 







 

the CONTROL is that you cancel the game if there is a local outbreak.  Heck IIRC you recently completely cancelled a game due to a thunderstorm.

 

[WyoHusker56]

A team of 125 who are constantly tested versus the rest of the population of the university/local teenage/early 20s population kinda pales in comparison. 70% of my friends on Snapchat (21+) go out every weekend or every other weekend. It’s not deterring anyone of this age group. People still go to gyms, bars, and hang out with friends. If there is no structure in place they will still do it anyway.  At least there is something in place for them here. 

Not disagreeing with you at all as all my friends are doing the same thing. I'm just saying as a school administrator the first outbreak tied to your athletes is a PR nightmare. That's part of the thought process in this. 

 

[Nebfanatic]

the CONTROL is that you cancel the game if there is a local outbreak.  Heck IIRC you recently completely cancelled a game due to a thunderstorm.

How many times can you do this before the season isn't viable? If this would have happened during the season MSU would have to cancel 2 games in a shortened schedule 

 

[Decked]

Not disagreeing with you at all as all my friends are doing the same thing. I'm just saying as a school administrator the first outbreak tied to your athletes is a PR nightmare. That's part of the thought process in this. 

For sure. 

 

[kansas45]

Not disagreeing with you at all as all my friends are doing the same thing. I'm just saying as a school administrator the first outbreak tied to your athletes is a PR nightmare. That's part of the thought process in this. 

I would think that a school administrator is going to have a PR nightmare with the first outbreak on campus away from the student-athletes. Contact tracing will go into over-drive. 

Washington State moved to full remote for fall 2020.

https://komonews.com/news/local/washington-state-university-announces-full-remote-classes-for-fall-2020-semester

But you see how they worded it?

In a letter to Washington State University students, the institution said all undergraduate courses at WSU Pullman will be completed remotely, "with extremely limited exceptions for inperson instruction." University-owned residence halls will open Aug. 15, but only for students who have a demonstrated institutional need and are approved to live on campus.

This way they can justify football players but no other students. The optics on this are not good. Not safe for students but only safe for student-athletes? 

 

[Huskers93-97]

A team of 125 who are constantly tested versus the rest of the population of the university/local teenage/early 20s population kinda pales in comparison. 70% of my friends on Snapchat (21+) go out every weekend or every other weekend. It’s not deterring anyone of this age group. People still go to gyms, bars, and hang out with friends. If there is no structure in place they will still do it anyway.  At least there is something in place for them here. 

I agree. Those kids play ball. Maybe get it and maybe spread it. They don’t play ball. Maybe still get it through normal socializing and interaction and maybe spread it. This thing appears to be spreading around the world regardless of preventative measures taken. Outside of a total lockdown nothing else seems to fully stop this. So either lock it down, or accept its going to spread and do your best with masks etc and proceed ahead with life 

 

[kansas45]

I agree. Those kids play ball. Maybe get it and maybe spread it. They don’t play ball. Maybe still get it through normal socializing and interaction and maybe spread it. This thing appears to be spreading around the world regardless of preventative measures taken. Outside of a total lockdown nothing else seems to fully stop this. So either lock it down, or accept its going to spread and do your best with masks etc and proceed ahead with life

This is the fear that college administrators have i.e. bringing students on campus and having it i.e. campus become an epicenter. If a small college town, the use of resources such as testing could overwhelm a local health system. While I have heard the argument that it is safer to bring students on campus it will be impossible to control behavior. 

I still believe that the optics of having no students on campus while there is a football team or other student-athletes in other sports on campus while other students are not on campus is a bad look for colleges and will not further the argument that the NCAA has of the amateur-academic model. This, I believe, is a dangerous game that the athletic departments are playing. However, I see why they are playing the delay game but no one has said "at what point on the chart" presented by Emmert of the NCAA of the wrong direction of the virus outbreak  is considered "acceptable"? 

I have also seen schools like Oklahoma and Kansas reschedule games for August 29. People tend to think that this is "set in stone." I understand why they are doing this to attempt to hedge their bet; but I do wonder what the clauses are in the contract? But this "damn the torpedoes, full steam ahead" philosophy can appear to be conducting business as usual without really any concern being expressed. 

 

[teachercd]

You gotta be s#!tting me.

Mexican pot came from Mexico. It sold for 15 dollars an ounce. Jamaican pot came from Jamaica. It cost a little more. Colombian pot came from Colombia. It sold for 40 dollars an ounce. Panama Red came from Panama, a little cheaper than Colombian. Thai Stick came from Thailand and it was the priciest, but sometimes the dealers lied and just tied Colombian to a stick. Skunk Weed came from the ditches of Cass County Nebraska. 

If it makes you feel any better, I boycotted Afghani Black Primo hash in solidarity with the Afghan War. 

You were correct about not having an A-game. 

I am 100% fine with this...using the name of the country where something came from is fine by me.  No matter what it is.

Also...you know a lot about pot.

 

[ColoradoHusk]

I am 100% fine with this...using the name of the country where something came from is fine by me.  No matter what it is.

Also...you know a lot about pot.

I get what you are saying, but when it’s done by certain people to deflect any blame for how things have been handled in the U.S. then it’s done for pure political reasons. 

 

[teachercd]

I get what you are saying, but when it’s done by certain people to deflect any blame for how things have been handled in the U.S. then it’s done for pure political reasons. 

Of course it is.

 

[kansas45]

Here is another article that I think encapsulates the question of "will we have a season?" Just posted by Forbes. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/karenweaver/2020/07/25/no-you-cannot-put-college-football-in-a-bubble/#38815c73b9f6

If you click on the green picture, you will see the daily snapshot for the FBS conferences. Jedlicka gives each school’s community a grade for how well they are managing Covid-19. Despite both universities deciding to shut down their programs, Michigan State (B) and Rutgers (A) were in regions that were doing well.

And guess who shut down their practices? Michigan State and Rutgers and they were getting grades of B and A. 

Let’s just accept the obvious—there is no way to put a college football team in a bubble or on the field this fall. They are part of a campus and community ecosystem. The sooner conference commissioners and presidents accept this, the sooner they can move on to facing reality.

 

[kansas45]

https://covidcfb.com/

TRACKING DATA AND POLICY RELATED TO COVID-19'S IMPACT ON NCAA D-I FOOTBALL

If you look at this data, you can go to the college town. Here is Nebraska.





School(s):


 


Nebraska





 




Cases Per 100K:


 


793.0




Daily rate of new cases, last 14 days:


 


1.81%




Projected new cases, next 14 days:


 


712

 

[Huskers93-97]

This is the fear that college administrators have i.e. bringing students on campus and having it i.e. campus become an epicenter. If a small college town, the use of resources such as testing could overwhelm a local health system. While I have heard the argument that it is safer to bring students on campus it will be impossible to control behavior. 

I still believe that the optics of having no students on campus while there is a football team or other student-athletes in other sports on campus while other students are not on campus is a bad look for colleges and will not further the argument that the NCAA has of the amateur-academic model. This, I believe, is a dangerous game that the athletic departments are playing. However, I see why they are playing the delay game but no one has said "at what point on the chart" presented by Emmert of the NCAA of the wrong direction of the virus outbreak  is considered "acceptable"? 

I have also seen schools like Oklahoma and Kansas reschedule games for August 29. People tend to think that this is "set in stone." I understand why they are doing this to attempt to hedge their bet; but I do wonder what the clauses are in the contract? But this "damn the torpedoes, full steam ahead" philosophy can appear to be conducting business as usual without really any concern being expressed. 

Keep in mind things are trending away from college being amateurs. You can make money off likeness and talks of paying players 

 

[JJ Husker]

So what’s the alternative if they cannot play? If they don’t play can they just do a year of S&C/drills within the program? I would 100% argue that it’s safer for them to be in this structured program than back at home. Especially those from minority communities. The thing that I don’t get about the positive tests: 

-Why don’t they ever say how many are hospital bound/Asymptomatic 

 cases are reported from these numbers to calculate risk from this group? These are probably some of the healthiest people in the world. The likelihood of anyone dying within a program is exceptionally low (I realize they can transfer the virus to others yes). Probably less than if they go about their daily lives unchecked. Combine this with frequent testing and setting parameters of where and when they can go to places makes it even safer. I would 100% be okay for football to return even without fans if the alternative is no season. 

I did a little math a couple days ago. Based on the deaths by age group demographic, 15-24 year olds have about a 1 in 320,000 chance of dying because of Covid. If we figure in that half that age group is girls, I would guess the chances for a male of that age would be more like 1 in 640,000. Considering D1 football players are in the top tier of health and conditioning, and toss in regular testing and a structured atmosphere, I have no idea how high that denominator number could go but I would say the chances of dying from virtually any other cause would dwarf the chance that Covid might get one of them. Also, consider most in that age group are pretty much going to do what they want, I don’t think participating in football raises their risk in any determinable way.

Caveat- this is only based on recorded deaths by age group through June. It does not account for any other possible health detriments which may be more pervasive and/or serious.