Will There Be a 2020 Football Season?

[kansas45]

Agreed. Bob Costas’ comments have already ventured into that basic area code.

It is starting to get even more interesting with a former head coach weighing in.

Danny Ford says college football is taking 'great gamble' playing this fall

https://www.tigernet.com/update/Danny-Ford-says-college-football-is-taking-great-gamble-playing-this-fall-35929

"I could see it being from the NCAA head all the way down to the commissioners all the way down to the ADs and coaches to the players," Ford said of potential lawsuits. "So we're taking an awful chance for one year. Maybe we can do it. It's risky in my opinion.
""I have not heard anyone talk about side effects, even if you had it at a young age as a young teenager," Ford said. "How is going to affect you when you're 60 years old? Or 40 - the colleges aren't going to be there for you then, you see. That's what I worry about...Hopefully nobody seriously gets hurt or passes away. Hopefully there are no future problems with people's health."

California is a big question mark. Imagine the hoops these people have to go through.

https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2020/07/31/pac-12-schedule-released-conference-games-only-a-late-september-start-and-questions-about-the-california-schools/

May we present … California.

“One question nobody is answering is,” a source said, “is what if the California schools can’t go” for training camp? Three of the four would be prohibited from holding any semblance of a normal camp if it started today. USC, UCLA and Cal are conducting outdoor strength-and-conditioning drills.

The teams cannot gather in large groups; they cannot tackle; they cannot even share a football. Until state and local health officials alter restrictions, the trio won’t move forward with preparations for the season. Stanford is further along, thanks to the protocols put in place by Santa Clara County. The Cardinal cannot tackle, but it can gather in groups large enough for units to practice together. And Stanford can use a football — but only if it’s touched only by two people: quarterback and running back, or quarterback and receiver. There are no center-quarterback exchanges, because that would involve a third person touching the ball. It is not known when Santa Clara County, the City of Berkeley and Los Angeles County — not to mention the state — plan to loosen restrictions to permit the standard level of tackling and touching of the ball.

“We’ll see what happens if the state guidance intersects with the orders at the local level,” the source said.

https://www.oregonlive.com/collegefootball/2020/08/do-you-believe-in-miracles-college-football-and-the-pac-12-certainly-seem-to-issues-answers.html

Odds are, if the season gets played this fall, most players won’t get sick. And most of those who do will recover. But nothing is certain. Some players will get COVID-19. A few could die.

 

[hunter49]

It is starting to get even more interesting with a former head coach weighing in.

Danny Ford says college football is taking 'great gamble' playing this fall

https://www.tigernet.com/update/Danny-Ford-says-college-football-is-taking-great-gamble-playing-this-fall-35929

"I could see it being from the NCAA head all the way down to the commissioners all the way down to the ADs and coaches to the players," Ford said of potential lawsuits. "So we're taking an awful chance for one year. Maybe we can do it. It's risky in my opinion.
""I have not heard anyone talk about side effects, even if you had it at a young age as a young teenager," Ford said. "How is going to affect you when you're 60 years old? Or 40 - the colleges aren't going to be there for you then, you see. That's what I worry about...Hopefully nobody seriously gets hurt or passes away. Hopefully there are no future problems with people's health."

California is a big question mark. Imagine the hoops these people have to go through.

https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2020/07/31/pac-12-schedule-released-conference-games-only-a-late-september-start-and-questions-about-the-california-schools/

May we present … California.

“One question nobody is answering is,” a source said, “is what if the California schools can’t go” for training camp? Three of the four would be prohibited from holding any semblance of a normal camp if it started today. USC, UCLA and Cal are conducting outdoor strength-and-conditioning drills.

The teams cannot gather in large groups; they cannot tackle; they cannot even share a football. Until state and local health officials alter restrictions, the trio won’t move forward with preparations for the season. Stanford is further along, thanks to the protocols put in place by Santa Clara County. The Cardinal cannot tackle, but it can gather in groups large enough for units to practice together. And Stanford can use a football — but only if it’s touched only by two people: quarterback and running back, or quarterback and receiver. There are no center-quarterback exchanges, because that would involve a third person touching the ball. It is not known when Santa Clara County, the City of Berkeley and Los Angeles County — not to mention the state — plan to loosen restrictions to permit the standard level of tackling and touching of the ball.

“We’ll see what happens if the state guidance intersects with the orders at the local level,” the source said.

https://www.oregonlive.com/collegefootball/2020/08/do-you-believe-in-miracles-college-football-and-the-pac-12-certainly-seem-to-issues-answers.html

Odds are, if the season gets played this fall, most players won’t get sick. And most of those who do will recover. But nothing is certain. Some players will get COVID-19. A few could die.

ah, the California model, we are screwed now!

 

[kansas45]

I told you all that this was going to happen at a PAC 12 school. This pandemic has laid bare the entire college football structure.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29578950/pac-12-player-group-threatens-opt-makes-list-demands-injustice-safety

A group of Pac-12 football players from multiple schools is threatening to opt out of both preseason camps and games until its negotiations with the league regarding concerns about racial injustice, their safety during the coronavirus pandemic and other demands are completed.

The group's list of demands, according to the text message, includes safe play amid the pandemic, fighting racial injustice, securing economic rights and fair compensation, protecting all sports and obtaining long-term health insurance.

 

[Cdog923]

If anyone is paying attention to MLB, it's a blueprint for the kind of cluster**** college football is going to be: there will be a start to the season, a few games will get played, and numerous players and teams will have to be shut down because of viral spread. 

 

[kansas45]

If anyone is paying attention to MLB, it's a blueprint for the kind of cluster**** college football is going to be: there will be a start to the season, a few games will get played, and numerous players and teams will have to be shut down because of viral spread. 

If they (university presidents) were smart and honest with themselves, they would look at the model and say "no way we can pull this off." The potential lawsuits, media scrutiny, player revolts, and other things will simply be too much pressure to even have one game only to find out that there is an outbreak. Remember what I told you all only to have the Hilltops of the world say I was being over-dramatic? It will only take ONE covid case for it to all collapse. The media outrage machine (and yes I know I keep saying this but you cannot deny it) will go into hyperdrive when kickoff becomes imminent. Right now, they are just waiting to see what the decision will be and the cancel culture will come out of the woodwork en masse. 

The report from the Washington Post is going to have a major impact on the perception of college football and could very well be "the straw that finally broke college football's back." The release of those transcripts cannot be spun any other way and no matter how hard the SEC tries, they will look foolish trying to spin it differently. 

Remember, college football hitched its wagon to the motto of "student-athlete health and safety is paramount." Deviating one angstrom from that motto when practice, in full pads, with contact, with groups of players congregating together at a practice and the college football Humpty Dumpty comes crashing down and there will be no way to put that back together; no amount of prayer, wishful thinking, alternate scenarios, alternate universe thinking and hope for a magic vaccine to come riding in like some formula that Spock puts together and makes Captain Kirk like a real hero. 

 

[RedDenver]

COVID deaths and hospitalizations are very low among the 18-34 demographic

I've seen a number of posts that say either that among college age players, covid is rarely severe or there are few hospitalizations. Where is this information coming from? The best age demographics data on severity/hospitalizations I've found is for Colorado: https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data

For confirmed cases, the hospitalization rate for 10-19 year olds is 3%, 20-29 yo is 4%, and for 30-39 yo is 7%. Is 3-7% hospitalization rate considered "very low"?

 

[Nebfanatic]

I've seen a number of posts that say either that among college age players, covid is rarely severe or there are few hospitalizations. Where is this information coming from? The best age demographics data on severity/hospitalizations I've found is for Colorado: https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data

For confirmed cases, the hospitalization rate for 10-19 year olds is 3%, 20-29 yo is 4%, and for 30-39 yo is 7%. Is 3-7% hospitalization rate considered "very low"?

That's pretty significant given the threshold for hospitalization in young people is likely more severe. 

 

[Jason Sitoke]

That's pretty significant given the threshold for hospitalization in young people is likely more severe. 

These numbers are based on confirmed cases. What that number represents as an indication of actual infections, I’m not sure, but  do you believe that an 18 year old with COVID has a 3% chance of being hospitalized for it?

 

[kansas45]

These numbers are based on confirmed cases. What that number represents as an indication of actual infections, I’m not sure, but  do you believe that an 18 year old with COVID has a 3% chance of being hospitalized for it?

That would be 3 cases per 100 people. There are several factors to take into consideration.

1. co-morbidities that an 18 year old may have;

2. we are not getting the news about these cases;

3. if there is no hospitalizations, we have not gotten any information about long term effects and what these are for this age group and how long the effects last.

 

[Jason Sitoke]

That would be 3 cases per 100 people.

Thanks. 

 

[Nebfanatic]

These numbers are based on confirmed cases. What that number represents as an indication of actual infections, I’m not sure, but  do you believe that an 18 year old with COVID has a 3% chance of being hospitalized for it?

I get what you are saying but all hospitalization numbers are based on confirmed cases. Same can be said for other diseases and when you compare, the 3% is significant. 

 

[Jason Sitoke]

I get what you are saying but all hospitalization numbers are based on confirmed cases. Same can be said for other diseases and when you compare, the 3% is significant. 

I’m not disagreeing with that, and I’m really trying not to rehash this again, but technically there were only 491k lab confirmed cases of H1N1 in 2009-10, with over 18k lab confirmed deaths. That puts the official mortality rate at over 3%, with a much higher percentage of young people dying. Now if we want to really analyze its effect in hindsight, we know we need to extrapolate those numbers into more realistic estimates to get a better picture of disease burden. 
 

But back to the main point...what I find confusing about this whole thing is that we are apparently trying to establish a large group of non-quarantined players, staff, coaches to get together for games with limited spectator ship (still numbering in the thousands) and we are expecting what to happen exactly?  Are we not expecting people to get infected?  Are we really hoping for suppression here?  
 

The middle of the country is about to get hit with the tail end of the first wave of this thing. It’s about to get worse. Either we’re going to accept that it’s going to happen regularly (local outbreaks among teams/fans) or we need to just shut it down.  

 

[hunter49]

I’m not disagreeing with that, and I’m really trying not to rehash this again, but technically there were only 491k lab confirmed cases of H1N1 in 2009-10, with over 18k lab confirmed deaths. That puts the official mortality rate at over 3%, with a much higher percentage of young people dying. Now if we want to really analyze its effect in hindsight, we know we need to extrapolate those numbers into more realistic estimates to get a better picture of disease burden. 
 

But back to the main point...what I find confusing about this whole thing is that we are apparently trying to establish a large group of non-quarantined players, staff, coaches to get together for games with limited spectator ship (still numbering in the thousands) and we are expecting what to happen exactly?  Are we not expecting people to get infected?  Are we really hoping for suppression here?  
 

The middle of the country is about to get hit with the tail end of the first wave of this thing. It’s about to get worse. Either we’re going to accept that it’s going to happen regularly (local outbreaks among teams/fans) or we need to just shut it down.  

I’m not disagreeing with that, and I’m really trying not to rehash this again, but technically there were only 491k lab confirmed cases of H1N1 in 2009-10, with over 18k lab confirmed deaths. That puts the official mortality rate at over 3%, with a much higher percentage of young people dying. Now if we want to really analyze its effect in hindsight, we know we need to extrapolate those numbers into more realistic estimates to get a better picture of disease burden. 
 

But back to the main point...what I find confusing about this whole thing is that we are apparently trying to establish a large group of non-quarantined players, staff, coaches to get together for games with limited spectator ship (still numbering in the thousands) and we are expecting what to happen exactly?  Are we not expecting people to get infected?  Are we really hoping for suppression here?  
 

The middle of the country is about to get hit with the tail end of the first wave of this thing. It’s about to get worse. Either we’re going to accept that it’s going to happen regularly (local outbreaks among teams/fans) or we need to just shut it down.  

St Louis Cardinals have an additional 4-6 positive tests this morning. If numbers continue to go up, I wouldn't be surprised to see MLB cancel and that would be bad news for CFB and NFL. I'd guess NFL would look hard about moving to a bubble system. So far the NBA, NHL, MLS and MLB have seemed to show it's bubble or bust. 

I'm curious on others thoughts on this board....if Covid-19 was killing kids at the rate of older citizens - would you then be mad that Trump calls this the Chinese Virus? I truly believe we would already be in a World War with them if that was the case and way more people would be on board. 

No, I am not saying he is right for saying this at this time or we should be at war - I just feel since it isn't kids then people kind of let a lot of things slide. 

it doesn't matter what you call it, it came from China, they hatched it. yes, if many children were dying from it across the world there would be a war over it for sure.

 

[hunter49]

interesting, a bunch of PAC 12 players just came out with demands before they are willing to ever practice or play a game. seems like extortion is alive and well every where you look?

"Among the demands are protections for eligibility and better health and safety standards amid the pandemic, keeping existing sports by cutting pay to coaches and administrators, a plan to fight racial injustice in college sports and society, and plans for revenue sharing and six-year athletic scholarships, among other economic issues."

 

[kansas45]

Thanks. 

You're welcome; I was using that as a way to figure it out in my own head plus I forgot to add that would be 3 football players on a typical roster. Never type a response formulating a thought in your head and listen to your wife yell at you at the same time. Although some of you are probably better at that I am, I still am mastering that art form. 

But I do wonder what the Hilltops of the world would think of 3 cases on a football needing hospitalization? 

"Among the demands are protections for eligibility and better health and safety standards amid the pandemic, keeping existing sports by cutting pay to coaches and administrators, a plan to fight racial injustice in college sports and society, and plans for revenue sharing and six-year athletic scholarships, among other economic issues."

interesting, a bunch of PAC 12 players just came out with demands before they are willing to ever practice or play a game. seems like extortion is alive and well every where you look?

Here is an update. 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29583023/pac-12-football-players-show-unity-list-demands-letter-conference

The student-athletes are asking the conference to form a permanent civic-engagement task force to address social injustice issues, as well as an annual Pac-12 Black College Athlete Summit with at least three athletes from every school in the conference.

 the letter says the group wants the conference to direct 2% of conference revenue to support financial aid for low-income Black students, community initiatives and development programs for college athletes on campus.

The group is asking the conference to distribute 50 percent of each sport's total conference revenue evenly among athletes in their respective sports, six-year athletic scholarships, and the ability to transfer one time with impunity.

"drastically reduce excessive pay" and end performance bonuses to help preserve all existing sports. In addition to those financial requests, the student-athletes are demanding guaranteed medical expense coverage for six years after college athletics eligibility ends.

And the extortion goes the other way.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/power-five-leaders-pressure-ncaa-with-threat-to-stage-own-fall-championships-ahead-of-vote/

Kicking around the idea of forming its own championships for all fall sports and not just football could be seen as a potential stepping stone toward the Power Five breaking away from the NCAA altogether.