Will There Be a 2020 Football Season?

[BigRedBuster]

Personally I would love to know what the total number of deaths are YTD as compared to other years.  I have been trying to find this data for 2020.  Are we really 200k more?  I haven't been able to verify that? 

I agree with the point that we have too short of a sample size  to draw too many conclusions especially due to the fact we haven't been through an entire flu season yet but as a high level view I think it would be interesting and it does address the granular problems of comorbidity&categorization.  I think it's another data point in the tool box to cross check other data.  And just to be clear,  I am talking about ALL deaths such as accidents,cancer,old age, covid, flu, murder, suicide etc etc.   

I believe I am just restating what people have said or implied but I want to make sure I have an understanding of the discussion.   

https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/mortality-in-the-u-s-noticeably-increased-during-the-first-months-of-2020-compared-to-previous-years/

There is a noticeable and historic uptick in overall deaths starting in March.

This report is from May, so it doesn't have anything since then.

 

[FrantzHardySwag]

May be and may not be.  It actually depends on how either the physician or medical examiner classifies a death which isn’t consistent across states.  Died of Covid or died with Covid.  Does a hospice patient with 6 months to live die of Covid because the death takes place 3 months sooner after getting infected. It’s not as easy as it sounds to classify cause of death. 
 

It also makes zero sense to look at tot number of deaths from a short time period like 3 months or 6 months.   Most studies of this nature wait for two years or longer to see what the total impact of unusual large events were. 

I agree with this, as I understand it - this is what they do with flu deaths. I would expect to see that number to grow, once we have a better idea of this in a couple years. I'm guessing with the immune systems response affecting organs like : Kidneys, Liver, Lungs and Heart - the CDC might see excess deaths due to liver failure, heart failure, kidney failure, pneumonia that they can attribute to COVID (especially FEB, MARCH deaths)

 

[RedDenver]

Personally I would love to know what the total number of deaths are YTD as compared to other years.  I have been trying to find this data for 2020.  Are we really 200k more?  I haven't been able to verify that? 

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/03/measuring-excess-mortality-gives-clearer-picture-pandemics-true-burden/

 

[Rochelobe]

Personally I would love to know what the total number of deaths are YTD as compared to other years.  I have been trying to find this data for 2020.  Are we really 200k more?  I haven't been able to verify that? 

I agree with the point that we have too short of a sample size  to draw too many conclusions especially due to the fact we haven't been through an entire flu season yet but as a high level view I think it would be interesting and it does address the granular problems of comorbidity&categorization.  I think it's another data point in the tool box to cross check other data.  And just to be clear,  I am talking about ALL deaths such as accidents,cancer,old age, covid, flu, murder, suicide etc etc.   

I believe I am just restating what people have said or implied but I want to make sure I have an understanding of the discussion.   

Agree, seems to be hard to find. Here is a paper from July that includes an 8 week period from Mar 1 to Apr 25: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768086

Observed deaths for the 8 weeks between March 1, 2020, and April 25, 2020, were taken from provisional data released on June 10, 2020.

Between March 1, 2020, and April 25, 2020, a total of 505 059 deaths were reported in the US; 87 001 (95% CI, 86 578-87 423) were excess deaths, of which 56 246 (65%) were attributed to COVID-19. In 14 states, more than 50% of excess deaths were attributed to underlying causes other than COVID-19; these included California (55% of excess deaths) and Texas (64% of excess deaths) (Table). The 5 states with the most COVID-19 deaths experienced large proportional increases in deaths due to nonrespiratory underlying causes, including diabetes (96%), heart diseases (89%), Alzheimer disease (64%), and cerebrovascular diseases (35%) (Figure). New York City experienced the largest increases in nonrespiratory deaths, notably those due to heart disease (398%) and diabetes (356%).

To my (non-medical eye) this seems to indicate that there is a large amount of under reporting in COVID-19 deaths, unless a whole bunch of other diseases just went through a simultaneous excess death spike - which seems pretty unlikely.

Granted some of the increase could be legitimate for say, diabetes.  Some people that died in the increased 356% may have not had COVID-19 and decided to forgo going to the emergency room to get treated due to the danger of contracting COVID-19 in NYC during that time.  However, I doubt the entire spike is due just to that.

 

[BigRedBuster]

Agree, seems to be hard to find. Here is a paper from July that includes an 8 week period from Mar 1 to Apr 25: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768086

To my (non-medical eye) this seems to indicate that there is a large amount of under reporting in COVID-19 deaths, unless a whole bunch of other diseases just went through a simultaneous excess death spike - which seems pretty unlikely.

Granted some of the increase could be legitimate for say, diabetes.  Some people that died in the increased 356% may have not had COVID-19 and decided to forgo going to the emergency room to get treated due to the danger of contracting COVID-19 in NYC during that time.  However, I doubt the entire spike is due just to that.

I don't see how people can say that you can't look at total deaths when there is a clear and major upswing in deaths right when the pandemic started.  The chart in the link I provided goes clear back to 2017 and there isn't anything like the spike in deaths we have seen the last 5 months.

Another issue that I think is shown in your article is that there were a significant number of deaths from other diseases due to the fact the health care system was so overwhelmed in certain areas like NYC that they couldn't take care of the normal heart attacks and strokes.  It's a major reason why it's important to keep the infection rate and the hospitalization rate as low as possible.

 

[Rochelobe]

Another issue that I think is shown in your article is that there were a significant number of deaths from other diseases due to the fact the health care system was so overwhelmed in certain areas like NYC that they couldn't take care of the normal heart attacks and strokes.  It's a major reason why it's important to keep the infection rate and the hospitalization rate as low as possible.

Agree. While not formally COVID-19 deaths, they could be considered COVID-19 adjacent - those deaths would not have happened at that rate had we not been going through a pandemic.

 

[Archy1221]

You don't have to look at that info.  Just look at the fact there has been over 200,000 more deaths than normal in the US since March.

So if the US has 60,000 less deaths next year than what is normal, we can say that all of a sudden the US population was safer/more risk averse and/or decided to become healthier?  No, it’s because some of the older population and less healthy who under normal circumstances would have died in 2021, ended up dying in 2020 because COVID-19 expedited their disease process.  Suicides are way up, MI events are way up.  
 

I have never said or inferred that COVID-19 is not serious or that it isn’t causing significant deaths.  I’m only saying the total amount of deaths this year combined with the next 2 years will be quite a bit closer to the total number of deaths the next three combined years when there is no longer a COVID-19 threat. It will most certainly be more, just not 200,000 more.  
 

this same thing could NOT be said if an event such as a massive EQ or tsunami like what occurred in Indonesia. The overall death toll did not or would not even out so fast because of the age group affected. 

 

[GBRFAN]

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[Archy1221]

I agree with this, as I understand it - this is what they do with flu deaths. I would expect to see that number to grow, once we have a better idea of this in a couple years. I'm guessing with the immune systems response affecting organs like : Kidneys, Liver, Lungs and Heart - the CDC might see excess deaths due to liver failure, heart failure, kidney failure, pneumonia that they can attribute to COVID (especially FEB, MARCH deaths)

Thank you for understanding the point!  It also helps determine what the longer term impact COVID-19 has had in terms of total overall deaths and number of years of life lost. 

 

[BigRedBuster]

You can look at them all you want and they are real.  The point some are making is that these deaths are just happening sooner - the theory is that most of these same individuals would have died within the next 24 months.  It doesn't make their death ok it just makes you wonder if the uptick in most aspects of our world would have been a big enough positive to allow these deaths to happen premature.  It's a tough question and their are fair arguments on both side. 

And that's OK.  Hey Grandpa....you were going to die next year anyway.  

This is a pathetic argument that I've seen other places as to why not take it seriously.

And...just because the majority of deaths are in the elderly, doesn't mean there isn't a significant number in the younger population.  And..not all of those were unhealthy individuals.

It also doesn't take into account the long term health affects of many younger people who get it and don't die.

 

[Archy1221]

And that's OK.  Hey Grandpa....you were going to die next year anyway.  

This is a pathetic argument that I've seen other places as to why not take it seriously.

And...just because the majority of deaths are in the elderly, doesn't mean there isn't a significant number in the younger population.  And..not all of those were unhealthy individuals.

It also doesn't take into account the long term health affects of many younger people who get it and don't die.

Such an idiotic statement.  He never said that, and actually stated the opposite. 
 

for some reason you continually imply that some posters are not taking COVID-19 seriously or don’t take its impact seriously and have compassion for those affected. 

 

[MyBloodIsRed16]

Nature doing its thing.  Nature is the league of shadows in the real world

 

[Undone]

I don't see how people can say that you can't look at total deaths when there is a clear and major upswing in deaths right when the pandemic started.

You can, but there is absolutely nothing concrete. It's a classic case of correlation not being causation. Pretty basic stuff.

 

[BigRedBuster]

Such an idiotic statement.  He never said that, and actually stated the opposite. 
 

for some reason you continually imply that some posters are not taking COVID-19 seriously or don’t take its impact seriously and have compassion for those affected. 

Then explain the "well, they were going to die within the next 24 months anyway.".

Which....there is absolutely no evidence to support that anyway.

And...I specifically said I've seen the argument other places.  I'm not implying that I know how he feels about it.  Just commenting on the attitude that he's talking about.

 

[Archy1221]

Then explain the "well, they were going to die within the next 24 months anyway.".

Which....there is absolutely no evidence to support that anyway.

And...I specifically said I've seen the argument other places.  I'm not implying that I know how he feels about it.  Just commenting on the attitude that he's talking about.

Actually, in long term care facilities for some patients and Hospice centers for most patients (And these two places are where most COVID death patients come from) there is evidence to support it because doctors will give patients a life expectancy range based on current disease severity.  Life insurance Actuary tables will also give data on this. 
Doesn’t mean it’s absolute and I assume every respectable member of society hopes everyone else outlives what’s expected.