Yardage Targets for Husker Offense

Mavric

Mavric

Yoda
Staff member
» 157: A reasonable goal for Nebraska’s rushing yards per game this season. The number is roughly the yards-per-game average of NU’s pro-style offenses (2004-2009, plus 2015 and 2016). I’m being generous with 2015 and 2016 — it was more of a pro/spread hybrid — but circle that number: 157. The high yards-per-game average from those eight offenses was 2015, at 180 yards per game. The low was 2005, at 96 yards per game.

» 239: A reasonable goal for Nebraska’s passing yards per game this season. The number is, you guessed it, roughly the yards-per-game average of NU’s eight pro-style offenses. The high yards-per-game average from the group was 2007, with 323.8 yards per game. The low was 2004, at 186.9 yards per game. Add up the rush and pass averages of NU’s eight pro-style offenses, and it’s 396 yards per game. That’s a reasonable goal.

» 43.75 percent: In Riley’s 16 years as coach at Oregon State and NU, his offenses surpassed 396 yards per game seven times: 2003, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013 and 2015. Those teams finished 52-37.

That winning percentage — .584 — applied to a 12-game regular schedule, results in a 7-5 record. It’s worth noting one of Riley’s best teams, the 2006 Oregon State squad that went 10-4, averaged 360.6 yards per game. Matt Moore was the quarterback. Perhaps you’ve heard Riley compare Lee to him.
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OWH

 
In case you're curious - or even if you're not - 396 yards per game would have ranked 75th in the country last year. Nebraska actually finished 90th at 380.8.

 
I feel like that number is terrible.

I sure hope Nebraska doesn't have that 96 yard average from 2005. It hurts to watch teams not be able to run the ball.

 
Yeah, I really hope those aren't the numbers. Last year you had to be up near 450 ypg to be a Top 40 offense. I would think being in that range should be more what is expected.

The 150-ish rushing yards per game probably isn't that far off. I wouldn't be surprised with that (or somewhat less). Which would mean we need to be in the 300 yards passing range. That would have been a Top 15 passing game last year but I could see that happening.

 
Mavric said:
Yeah, I really hope those aren't the numbers. Last year you had to be up near 450 ypg to be a Top 40 offense. I would think being in that range should be more what is expected.

The 150-ish rushing yards per game probably isn't that far off. I wouldn't be surprised with that (or somewhat less). Which would mean we need to be in the 300 yards passing range. That would have been a Top 15 passing game last year but I could see that happening.
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300 yards passing I think is going to be pretty close to the NU average for the year.

Rushing will also be skewed a tad because of sack numbers but whatever.

 
Mavric said:
Yeah, I really hope those aren't the numbers. Last year you had to be up near 450 ypg to be a Top 40 offense. I would think being in that range should be more what is expected.

The 150-ish rushing yards per game probably isn't that far off. I wouldn't be surprised with that (or somewhat less). Which would mean we need to be in the 300 yards passing range. That would have been a Top 15 passing game last year but I could see that happening.
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These are my thoughts when I read the article and the stats. I'm looking for 400+ yards per game and hopefully in the 450+ per game range.

 
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The more I think about NU's offense this year, the more I start to think about the success of the team, in terms of win-loss record will be determined on how much the defense improves under Diaco.

 
If Nebraska can only get 396 per game while breaking in a new defense on the other side of the ball then its going to be a long season.

 
I think offensive numbers, including scoring, etc. are generally higher than they used to be so using averages from the past are maybe not as accurate a way to forecast today. I don't think Callahan had a QB of Lee or OBrien caliber either. And using Riley's offense of the past two years with Armstrong is also not fair as I am sure we can expect a higher completion precentage and more capable passing game.

I would hope we can pass for atleast 300 and run another 175, even with a couple sacks a game off the total. And yes, we need to play good defense as winning 52 -49 is not a good way to play for a championship.

 
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