Year 4 Expectations

[Hilltop]

What? 

Last year our offense was worse than 2009 and we lost to the backups of a bad Minnesota team. Our starting 3rd year Center is still learning to snap the ball. We have no development from our runningbacks or receivers.

Frost is a garbage coach. Accept it, stop defending the guy, and hope the next hire is the right guy.

You mean the 2009 Nebraska team that averaged 18.75 points per game in conference was worse than the 2020 team that averaged 23 points per game in conference?  I would also point out the teams we played in 2020 had a much better defensive ranking.  I'm not following your math or logic here.  Please explain.

 

[Hilltop]

You guys are making s#!t up at this point its getting embarrassing. there is no positive correlation here to prove your point.  Between returning starters, record, etc. The only thing i think everyone would agree on is that having a new qb in a covid world would be the hardest thing to recover from. 

That said, of the 10 teams with 15 or less returning starting, Nebraska had the fourth worst record.  2 of those teams had new qbs.  the only other, Michigan, only returned 11 starters. Bringing up all this makes frost look worse, remember, nebraska and ohio state were doing a bit more then most of these programs preparing for an eventual season.  Some teams, were significantly more affected by covid in season then Nebraska was. 

Lastly of all the teams that had 15 or more returning starters, nebraska had the 3rd worst record.  of these teams with worse records, Nebraska was the only one with a returning qb.  

returning starters, teams, record, percent,qb

Michigan state, 10,  2-5. 29% (new qb kindof)

Ohio state, 11, 7-1, 86%

Michigan, 11, 2-4, 33% (new qb)

Maryland 11, 2-3, 40%  (new qb)

Iowa 12, 6-2, 75% (new qb)

minnesota 13, 3-4, 43%

penn state 14, 4-5, 44% (switched qbs mid year)

illinios 14, 2-6, 25%

nebraska 15, 3-5, 36%

wisconsin 15, 4-3, 57% (freshman qb)

rutgers 17, 3-6. 33% (new qb)

purdue 17, 2-4, 33% (new qb) 

indiana 17, 6-2 75%

northwestern 19, 7-2, 78% (qb transfer)

The 247 article you used from May is not accurate for starters, and it doesn't account for experience level.  Who is better, a kid who got 2nd string reps at Ohio State and is a senior or a kid who is a sophomore playing with other underclassmen trying to learn a new system?  Who is better, a 3rd or 4th year starter vs a 2nd year starter?

And again, you stink at following the conversation.  

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

You mean the 2009 Nebraska team that averaged 18.75 points per game in conference was worse than the 2020 team that averaged 23 points per game in conference?  I would also point out the teams we played in 2020 had a much better defensive ranking.  I'm not following your math or logic here.  Please explain.

2009 Nebraska Offense - 25.1 PPG

2020 Nebraska Offense - 23.1 PPG

This is not rocket science. I would also point out that the 2009 offense notoriously took little to no risks and Pelini was completely fine punting and putting his defense on the field. 

Stop acting like Frost is a serviceable head coach. News flash: it doesn't take into year 4 for a single RB recruit out of high school to develop. Or for a center to snap the ball. Or for any of your 15 WR recruits to see the field. Or for a Quarterback to throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield. 

Or not to lose to the backups of Minnesota at home. Or to get blown out by a bad Illinois team who fired their head coach at home. 

 

[Undone]

I expect to go 6-6.

Martinez needs to retrain himself on how to protect the ball when he's running with the rock. Special teams have to be significantly better than they have been the past two years.

Defense has to be at minimum as good as it was last year.

Those are my expectations, and I think they're pretty low. If Frost can't accomplish those things I don't want to talk about firing him or anything like that, but I'll have pretty much completely lost faith in his abilities to pinpoint the main problems and to execute a plan to fix them.

 

[Hilltop]

2009 Nebraska Offense - 25.1 PPG

2020 Nebraska Offense - 23.1 PPG

The 157 points scored against Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State, Virginia Tech and Louisiana-Lafayette should surely be used to compare between the seasons...

 

[J-MAGIC]

What? 

Last year our offense was worse than 2009 and we lost to the backups of a bad Minnesota team. Our starting 3rd year Center is still learning to snap the ball. We have no development from our runningbacks or receivers.

Frost is a garbage coach. Accept it, stop defending the guy, and hope the next hire is the right guy.

Every point you make here has been refuted multiple times in this thread, and you are more than capable of reading through it to see why you are wrong. If you'd like to ignore evidence and context to stick your head in the sand and be a pessimist, be my guest.

 

[runningblind]

Every point you make here has been refuted multiple times in this thread, and you are more than capable of reading through it to see why you are wrong. If you'd like to ignore evidence and context to stick your head in the sand and be a pessimist, be my guest.

While I am not on the level of thinking Scott Frost is a communist come to corrupt us like some, don't you think it's ironic to make a statement like "ignore evidence and stick your head in the sand" in calling him a pessimist when you're basically doing the opposite?

It's ok to talk about the shortcomings of this program and be realistic about what we see, that's not pessimistic (the Dr. excluded). You don't have to defend everything to be a Husker fan.  This doesn't have to be binary, it's not all good and it's not all bad.

 

[Dogs In A Pile]

I just have to wonder what the general feeling in Husker Nation would be if anyone other than HCSF had come in with a $5M/yr. contract and gone 12-20 for their first 3 years including being taken out behind the woodshed last year by a 2-6 team who's coach ended up being fired. 

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

The 157 points scored against Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State, Virginia Tech and Louisiana-Lafayette should surely be used to compare between the seasons...

The 2009 team was an extremely conservative offense. If you want to cherry pick numbers to exclude Virginia Tech, be my guest. But that 2009 team tried to get out of its own way on offense, happily punting the ball so Suh and Co. could take the field. 

Every point you make here has been refuted multiple times in this thread, and you are more than capable of reading through it to see why you are wrong. If you'd like to ignore evidence and context to stick your head in the sand and be a pessimist, be my guest.

I guess I'm blind to the development of our runningbacks recruited out of High School. Or the WRs that can't seem to find the field. Or the wins and losses. Or that Minnesota was down to 50 scholarship players. Or that Illinois did not blow us out at home and did not fire their head coach.

Yes, I'm making it all up to make Frost look bad. It's been refuted in the thread even! 

 

[All Hail Herbie]

It's year 4. 

That's a decent amount of time for Frost's recruits to have replaced them. 

Mistakes were made. They may or may not have been corrected. We'll see.

Like I said: Year One expectations. 

In the interest of keeping the peace within the fan base, I have no expectations for either Year 4 or Year 5.  Evidently, we want to avoid making any judgment on the state of the program in the eyes of some until we complete Year 5.

Having said that, I think we can safely agree that losing records the next two years will not result in another contract extension, correct?  If that is not a safe assumption, how long does this Coaching staff need to qualify us for a bowl?   10 Years?  

 

[Huskers93-97]

Here is what I see. Many fans on here are frustrated and voice the things that are not good enough with the program. Then you have some fans who feel they need to defend Frost. Then what happens is it feels like Frost bashing but really some of us are in amazement how guys can ignore the negatives and make excuses for everything so we end up arguing. None of these guys do I believe want Nebraska or Frost to fail but they are very skeptical. Man after 3 years and 12 wins if you are not skeptical I gotta question your ability to analyze your surroundings and be level headed. You can still be a faithful fan and Frost believer. But at the same time say man I am starting to have doubts- my warm and fuzzies from 2017 UCf are gone. 20 years of thinking this is the year is gone for me and I refuse to make excuses for lack of results. I thought it would take a few years to build up the oline and we are there now so it’s put up or shut up time. For me it’s not just a win total, but do we look like a well coached team. 

 

[All Hail Herbie]

Here is what I see. Many fans on here are frustrated and voice the things that are not good enough with the program. Then you have some fans who feel they need to defend Frost. Then what happens is it feels like Frost bashing but really some of us are in amazement how guys can ignore the negatives and make excuses for everything so we end up arguing. None of these guys do I believe want Nebraska or Frost to fail but they are very skeptical. Man after 3 years and 12 wins if you are not skeptical I gotta question your ability to analyze your surroundings and be level headed. You can still be a faithful fan and Frost believer. But at the same time say man I am starting to have doubts- my warm and fuzzies from 2017 UCf are gone. 20 years of thinking this is the year is gone for me and I refuse to make excuses for lack of results. I thought it would take a few years to build up the oline and we are there now so it’s put up or shut up time. For me it’s not just a win total, but do we look like a well coached team. 

This is the variety of honest assessment and dialogue I was hoping to generate.  Reasonable scrutiny is not personal.  Moreover, conditioning every piece of criticism is not necessary (i.e. Frost inherited poor recruits, Covid, attrition, etc.).  Coaches accept these lucrative contracts understanding both the risks and rewards.  Let's be clear-eyed about our status while recognizing that Coach Frost is doing what he believes is right. 

Many times coaches fail, and we just need to be prepared for this based on the current trajectory.

 

[J-MAGIC]

While I am not on the level of thinking Scott Frost is a communist come to corrupt us like some, don't you think it's ironic to make a statement like "ignore evidence and stick your head in the sand" in calling him a pessimist when you're basically doing the opposite?

It's ok to talk about the shortcomings of this program and be realistic about what we see, that's not pessimistic (the Dr. excluded). You don't have to defend everything to be a Husker fan.  This doesn't have to be binary, it's not all good and it's not all bad.

Can you show me where I said that Frost doesn't deserve criticism or that the current state of our program is "all good"?? Because I have a lot of criticisms! I have done nothing here but push back on the narratives (a) that things are as bad as they've ever been, (b) that the team hasn't improved significantly under Frost, and (c) that our talent level/recruiting wasn't horrific under Riley -- using I think some fairly objective measures such as SP+, our recent NFL draft history, and rerankings of our recruiting classes by The Athletic. If you think that means I don't understand shades of gray or that I think everything is "all good", then I would question your reading comprehension.

 

[J-MAGIC]

I think the main disagreement here is coming down to, "How do we want to measure success/progress for a developing program?":

1. Pure binaries like wins/losses, other contextless numbers like points per game, recruiting rankings, etc.

2. What do the underlying numbers and advanced stats say? How do we actually look on the field? How tough was our schedule? Have we been lucky/unlucky?

I think subscribing to ONLY Option 1 is very dumb and the people who do so are going it are going to be proven very wrong. But if you want to just yell "12-20!" you're not wrong and no one can really stop you.

 

[Hilltop]

The 2009 team was an extremely conservative offense. If you want to cherry pick numbers to exclude Virginia Tech, be my guest. But that 2009 team tried to get out of its own way on offense, happily punting the ball so Suh and Co. could take the field. 

I guess I'm blind to the development of our runningbacks recruited out of High School. Or the WRs that can't seem to find the field. Or the wins and losses. Or that Minnesota was down to 50 scholarship players. Or that Illinois did not blow us out at home and did not fire their head coach.

Yes, I'm making it all up to make Frost look bad. It's been refuted in the thread even! 

What am I cherry picking?

My original quote- "The 157 points scored against Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State, Virginia Tech and Louisiana-Lafayette should surely be used to compare between the seasons..."

Here is the bottom line.  Your takes are over the top negative.  I get it, you don't like Frost and your ticked that we aren't better.  I argue back because I think it would be crazy to make a change right now.  We have been a revolving door for 20 years- That is not working.  Has this staff made mistakes?  Of course- that's obvious.  They have also made some significant improvements.  I think those lead to some pretty good teams in the next couple years.  If I'm wrong, good chance your point of view will be shared by a whole lot more people, including myself.