You are on the Playoff Selection Committee....

[irafreak]

I pick Bama to play Baylor and Auburn to play Michigan State....winners duke it out to play idle FSU. But the system isn't going to be fair so that option is out the window.

 

[Creed]

#1 FSU

#2 Auburn

#3 Alabama (fluke loss to #2)

#4 Mich State(1-loss early in season, win over top 10)

#5 Baylor (1 blowout loss late in Nov, best win over #11 OU)

#6 OSU (1 loss to #4 MSU)

#7 SCar (1 bad loss to UT, also loss to UGa when healthy, beat Missouri, Clemson)

#8 Stanford (2 bad losses to UR teams drop them far IMO)

So, FSU vs Mich State

Auburn vs Alabama

Alabama over FSU

I think there will be some interesting issues with the playoff.

1. How will CCG impact the final 4, especially for B12. If Baylor is on the bubble and they beat an UR B12 team in last game do they get jumped by another bubble team who won their CCG?

2. How do the semi-final, final bowl locations get determined? So if the Rose Bowl and Orange Bowl are the semi-final sites would FSU vs Mich state be in the Orange and Auburn vs Alabama would have to play all the way at the Rose Bowl?

 

[tschu]

1.95 points separates #45 and #60. Talk about cherry picking

So, in reivew, AgMarauder points out that Alabama has had a tougher schedule than Baylor. StPaulHusker tries to prove otherwise with a bunch of criteria totally chosen out of thin air. tschu once again points out that a metric which literally takes into account the score and margin of victory and location of every team in every game across the entirety of the college football season which is universally respected and lauded by statistics guys and professional gamblers - yeah that metric - says that Alabama has a tougher schedule, and I actually posted up above that I thought it wasn't by much. StPaulHusker counters that I'm cherry picking and that since it wasn't by much, hell, that practically means that Baylor had a tougher schedule if you're drunk and squint really hard.

I didn't realize that the Sagarin ratings took Vegas odds into account

They don't. But the ratings are so good that after about week 7 they come withing a point or two of Vegas odds on basically every game. My point was that, take arbitrary team X. (Could be any team whatsoever.) Have them play a home game against Oklahoma. Have them then play a road game at Auburn. According to Sagarin's predictor, there is a difference of about 12 points (actually, make it 13 points since you have (difference between home and neutral 3.5 + predictor difference 6 + difference between neutral and road 3.5)) However, your cherry picked metric had those games counted as being of equal strength. That's all I was saying.

 

[HuskerShark]

In the order of teams deserving to be in based on pure strength, it's something like

1. FSU

2. Stanford

3. Alabama

4. Baylor

5. Auburn

6. Michigan State

at least among the teams who merit any sort of consideration

wut... Stanford is a 2-loss team whose 2 losses were to middle-of-the-pack Pac12 teams...

1. FSU

2. Auburn

3. Michigan State

4. Baylor

5. Bama

6. Stanford

 

[tschu]

Have you looked at Stanford's schedule? You should probably do that. Like I said, pure power ranking

 

[StPaulHusker]

1.95 points separates #45 and #60. Talk about cherry picking

So, in reivew, AgMarauder points out that Alabama has had a tougher schedule than Baylor. StPaulHusker tries to prove otherwise with a bunch of criteria totally chosen out of thin air. tschu once again points out that a metric which literally takes into account the score and margin of victory and location of every team in every game across the entirety of the college football season which is universally respected and lauded by statistics guys and professional gamblers - yeah that metric - says that Alabama has a tougher schedule, and I actually posted up above that I thought it wasn't by much. StPaulHusker counters that I'm cherry picking and that since it wasn't by much, hell, that practically means that Baylor had a tougher schedule if you're drunk and squint really hard.

I didn't realize that the Sagarin ratings took Vegas odds into account

They don't. But the ratings are so good that after about week 7 they come withing a point or two of Vegas odds on basically every game. My point was that, take arbitrary team X. (Could be any team whatsoever.) Have them play a home game against Oklahoma. Have them then play a road game at Auburn. According to Sagarin's predictor, there is a difference of about 12 points (actually, make it 13 points since you have (difference between home and neutral 3.5 + predictor difference 6 + difference between neutral and road 3.5)) However, your cherry picked metric had those games counted as being of equal strength. That's all I was saying.

Okay. Fair enough. But using SOS as the only determining factor isn't the best way to go, either. I mean, winning a division or conference should account for something, right.

And just so we are clear. I stated that I didn't know how SOS was determined. I looked at straight wins and losses, games against FCS opponents, and things like that to show a comparison between the 2. Admittedly, I drew it out further than it should have been. I was not making a case for either one to be in or out.