Your 2022 Nebraska Cornhuskers

Returning Production according to Bill Connelly's SP+.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/33237908/college-football-teams-returning-production-2022-season

24 Ohio St

27 Iowa

40 Maryland

42 Mich St

47 Purdue

50 Minnesota

54 Rutgers

55 Indiana

67 Michgan

69 Northwestern

72 Penn St

85 Wisconsin

104 Nebraska (57% of offense and 57% of defense)

122 Illinois

A note about transfers
With the transfer portal taking on ever-increasing importance in a team's roster construction, I attempt to account for transfers in both the returning production and recruiting pieces of the SP+ projections.

Returning production: Quite crudely, if a player transfers from one FBS school to another, I mash his production from his previous team into the numerator and denominator for his new team. So if your quarterback leaves, and you bring in a transfer who was starting somewhere else -- a la USC, Ole Miss, Cincinnati and others -- that dampens the overall blow significantly. Because the translation from lower levels to upper is extremely inconsistent, I don't do this for players transferring up from FCS or Division II. I used to, but it didn't produce predictive value.
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What these numbers mean for your team
I have been collecting returning production data since 2014. Not including the 2021 season -- for reasons I'll address below -- about 8% of teams (equivalent to about 11 of 131) return at least 80% of overall production each year. On average, they improve by about 5.8 adjusted points per game in the following season's SP+ ratings. That's pretty significant. If a team ranked 20th in SP+ last year, adding 5.8 points to its rating would have bumped it to seventh. If a team ranked 40th, it would have jumped to 15th.

On the other end, about 11% of teams (roughly 14 per season) return less than 50% of their production in a given season. That results in an average drop of about 6.3 adjusted points in SP+. If a team was 10th last year, losing 6.3 points would drop it to 27th. If it was 40th, it would fall to 67th.
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Red Five said:
Returning Production according to Bill Connelly's SP+.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/33237908/college-football-teams-returning-production-2022-season

24 Ohio St

27 Iowa

40 Maryland

42 Mich St

47 Purdue

50 Minnesota

54 Rutgers

55 Indiana

67 Michgan

69 Northwestern

72 Penn St

85 Wisconsin

104 Nebraska (57% of offense and 57% of defense)

122 Illinois
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104th? Ok, but man... that puts us 13th out of 14 in the conference.  No wonder we fired coaches, threw $$$ on the new ones, and hit the transfer portal hard. 

Fortunately I like the new staff and incoming players. Without all these moves, I can see us at 104 and owning it.  Seriously.

 
Booo…..I’ve never been a fan of playing on Fridays other than the one after thanksgiving.  That’s for high school. 
 


 
FLRF7VFWYAIjQSZ


 
Hm?  Top 25 in the off-season again!   Good to know NU is back where we belong.  Maybe they know something about Chubba that we haven’t seen yet?

 
The Dude said:
Yet he was the only runningback anywhere close to 7 yards a carry.  I think ability is more important than what the scale says. 

And when you're a 250 lb man 10-15 lbs is negligible.   That dude could take a healthy dump and lose 10 lbs.
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I think Yant would make a great linebacker.

 
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