Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

[BigRedBuster]

Umm.  They’ve already adjusted anticipated deaths from 100k-250k down to roughly 80k and cdc director dr Hahn stated yesterday those are likely high.  
 

can we agree the model they used for nationwide modeling was the IHME.  Dr birx stated they used NYC and Italy as the data set assuming the current social distancing measures, which by that time was mostly well in place.  April 5th update on NYC....projected hospitalizations were off 54k, icu admits off 8k.  NYC was the major data input for the entire model and was off by 54k hospitalizations?  Do you not see the issue with this?  On April 6th they updated the model and were still off almost 15k hospitalizations and 3-4K icu admits, on the day they released it.  How are the models, if they lack any accuracy at all not garbage.

again, my point is this was more serious than I gave it credit for in the short term but to expect this disruption to be in place 4-5 months from now, based on what we know now, is irresponsible at a minimum.  At some point the “cure” becomes worse than the disease and we are quickly approaching that time.

The difference between you and me is that you seem to have the feeling that a projection that isn't almost dead nuts on the first time, must be garbage.  I tend to understand that projections are adjusted over time with what is happening on the ground.  When the original projections are made, nobody knew what measures would take place and how Americans would react to them or adhere to them.

It's like projecting now that the Huskers are going to win 8 games next year, then in fall camp, top two QBs, starting RB and two starting WRs go down with injury.  So, it's adjusted to project 5 wins next year.   That doesn't mean the original projection was garbage.

 

[N is for nowledge]

I've read and I'm of the opinion that several small businesses won't make it.  It doesn't matter if there is a season or not, quite a few of them aren't going to make it.  Nearly a quarter of the nation's ethanol plants have closed.  Some of them won't open even when this passes.  Nebraska is highly dependent upon agriculture.  There are several involved in agriculture that aren't going to make it. 

I don't necessarily disagree with what you're saying especially about the cure not being worse than the disease.  I'm simply stating that the direction we're going and the path we're taking leads us right smack into a depression and quite possibly a long and deep depression.  In the last month, I've been reading quite a bit more than normal.  At first, almost all experts agreed that this virus started from the "wet" market in Wuhan.  People claiming it came from their biolab were labelled tin foil hat conspiracy theorists.  Now, more and more experts are saying that it came from the biolab because the bats carrying this virus are not native to Wuhan and are found roughly 900 km away.  China has already sent test kits to Spain that only had a 30% accuracy.  Now, they are sending defunct medical supplies to England.  There are getting to be more and more articles by the day stating how China needs to answer for all of the lies and such.  Right now, I'm a lot more concerned about WW3 than I am about whether there's a college football season or not. 

See I see it a little differently.  The longer this self destruction of our economy lasts, yes the more likely it is we don’t come back from it (depression).  If we start to reduce/ease restrictions in early/mid may it may be a slow crawl back which sports seasons can certainly ease that stress come fall.  
 

as for China, very clear they need to be held somewhat accountable.  I see it more as us putting the screws to them for trade deal, bringing back manufacturing for all essential supplies (ppe, med equipment, drugs, etc...) with other countries doing the same.  The pressure just that mounts on China will be immense.

 

[BigRedBuster]

Because it’s not just about sports.  Jobs and businesses are directly associated with sporting events, concerts, etc....many hotels and restaurants are small business owners.  A place like downtown Lincoln, among many others, simply won’t make it without a season.  That’s not just about downtown Lincoln but the people that have jobs down there, gone, all across the nation.  “Cure“ can’t be worse than the disease.

OK...are you taking the original question to ask "SHOULD we have a season next year?"  That seems to be what you are indicating.  The original question was for the chances of us having one.  Those are two very different questions.

"SHOULD" we have a season will be determined as time goes on over the next 4-5 months.  I haven't seen anyone dispute that or indicate we should make that determination right now.

This is all a very bad situation financially for a lot of people.  Nobody is disputing that.  We need to be opened back up as soon as possible.  That "as soon as possible" will be determined by how serious people take this problem NOW so the virus gets controlled and we can move on with our lives.  If people don't take it seriously, it will drag on longer.

 

[N is for nowledge]

The difference between you and me is that you seem to have the feeling that a projection that isn't almost dead nuts on the first time, must be garbage.  I tend to understand that projections are adjusted over time with what is happening on the ground.  When the original projections are made, nobody knew what measures would take place and how Americans would react to them or adhere to them.

It's like projecting now that the Huskers are going to win 8 games next year, then in fall camp, top two QBs, starting RB and two starting WRs go down with injury.  So, it's adjusted to project 5 wins next year.   That doesn't mean the original projection was garbage.

I understand that, projections can be off.  My point was it wouldn’t be some off if we knew a good amount about this virus when it was made.  The model even given the latest update with actual share still off significantly.  When you use models to make decisions and they’re this off you can see the problem with that.

look at it this way.  I expect experts to be just that.  If I wanted an estimate on a roof, the expert looked at it, and provided a detailed “projection”.  If the projection was 69k and they actually came in +/- 5-10k, OK.  If they come in +/- 50k is that not a problem.  Do you begin questioning the expert or at minimum the “modeling” they are using to provide projections.  They weren’t just off they were WAY off.

 

[N is for nowledge]

OK...are you taking the original question to ask "SHOULD we have a season next year?"  That seems to be what you are indicating.  The original question was for the chances of us having one.  Those are two very different questions.

"SHOULD" we have a season will be determined as time goes on over the next 4-5 months.  I haven't seen anyone dispute that or indicate we should make that determination right now.

This is all a very bad situation financially for a lot of people.  Nobody is disputing that.  We need to be opened back up as soon as possible.  That "as soon as possible" will be determined by how serious people take this problem NOW so the virus gets controlled and we can move on with our lives.  If people don't take it seriously, it will drag on longer.

I’m saying it’s part of the same question.  Lives will continue to be lost to “rona” throughout the year at least.  Lives will continue to be lost for all different kinds of diseases, viruses, and infections.  That doesn’t mean everything stops.  It’s unfortunate yes but the question needing to be answered isn’t black and white and shouldn’t be.  Lots of variables need to be considered.  

 

[junior4949]

See I see it a little differently.  The longer this self destruction of our economy lasts, yes the more likely it is we don’t come back from it (depression).  If we start to reduce/ease restrictions in early/mid may it may be a slow crawl back which sports seasons can certainly ease that stress come fall.  
 

as for China, very clear they need to be held somewhat accountable.  I see it more as us putting the screws to them for trade deal, bringing back manufacturing for all essential supplies (ppe, med equipment, drugs, etc...) with other countries doing the same.  The pressure just that mounts on China will be immense.

To the bolded, isn't this almost identical to the signing of the Treaty of Versailles?  How did that turn out?   

In terms of me seeing it differently, I don't.  However, I'm not the one calling the shots.  As more and more time goes by, it would appear that Dr. Fauci is calling the shots.  He's already stated that he doesn't think things go back to normal before we have a vaccine.  Considering Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx have been working on a HIV vaccine along with others going on four decades, I'm not holding my breath that we have a vaccine in the immediate future. 

 

[junior4949]

I’m saying it’s part of the same question.  Lives will continue to be lost to “rona” throughout the year at least.  Lives will continue to be lost for all different kinds of diseases, viruses, and infections.  That doesn’t mean everything stops.  It’s unfortunate yes but the question needing to be answered isn’t black and white and shouldn’t be.  Lots of variables need to be considered.  

To me, the real question is will more people lose their life to the virus or to suicide?  There's already been a spike in suicides, domestic violence, and child abuse.  When this all shakes out, will more lives be lost to those three things or the virus?

 

[BigRedBuster]

I understand that, projections can be off.  My point was it wouldn’t be some off if we knew a good amount about this virus when it was made.  The model even given the latest update with actual share still off significantly.  When you use models to make decisions and they’re this off you can see the problem with that.

look at it this way.  I expect experts to be just that.  If I wanted an estimate on a roof, the expert looked at it, and provided a detailed “projection”.  If the projection was 69k and they actually came in +/- 5-10k, OK.  If they come in +/- 50k is that not a problem.  Do you begin questioning the expert or at minimum the “modeling” they are using to provide projections.  They weren’t just off they were WAY off.

This is a new virus nobody had ever seen before.  The original projections are based on what people know about viruses that seem to act the same as what the experts are seeing.  Interestingly, those original projections, aren't off that far assuming nothing had changed.  The fact that things HAVE changed that has affected the outcome, doesn't make the original projections garbage. 

 

[N is for nowledge]

To me, the real question is will more people lose their life to the virus or to suicide?  There's already been a spike in suicides, domestic violence, and child abuse.  When this all shakes out, will more lives be lost to those three things or the virus?

Not to mention things that are being missed from “elective surgeries” and non emergent medical visits being put off.  How many cancers are we missing, cardiac issues.  The ripple effect of this shutdown will be interesting to review in hindsight.

 

[84HuskerLaw]

The only way the entire shut down approach is worth the social and pure economic cost is if you assume the drastic models were fairly accurate because if the virus turns out to be relatively similar in death rates to other major illnesses such as the other flus and pneumonias and car crashes, alcoholism, drug abuse, etc. 

I suspect that the shut downs have reduced vehicle accidents, less flus, etc.  

Presumably in the short term many thousands of lives have been saved.  The question is how many others will be lost as a result of the economic and social “poison pills” we have taken over the coming years.  There will be long term consequences that will be extremely painful - maybe permanent.  

 

[N is for nowledge]

This is a new virus nobody had ever seen before.  The original projections are based on what people know about viruses that seem to act the same as what the experts are seeing.  Interestingly, those original projections, aren't off that far assuming nothing had changed.  The fact that things HAVE changed that has affected the outcome, doesn't make the original projections garbage. 

Original projections...1.5-2.5 million deaths.  
projection 2.0...100k-240k deaths, off after first week in NYC by 50k hospitalizations.  Used NYC as major input for the whole model.

Projection 3.0.  ~ 80k deaths, cdc director admitted next day those were likely off significantly.  NYC, the major input for the model, on the day of the update was ~15-20k hospitalizations off.

projection 2.0 didn’t assume anything we haven’t been doing since mid March and should have been included.  Nothing has changed since 2.0 to 3.0 yet deaths have been adjusted from 240k to 80k with the admission those are also likely high.  This models are the exact opposite of “ACCURATE” or as you said...”not that far off”.

 

[junior4949]

The only way the entire shut down approach is worth the social and pure economic cost is if you assume the drastic models were fairly accurate because if the virus turns out to be relatively similar in death rates to other major illnesses such as the other flus and pneumonias and car crashes, alcoholism, drug abuse, etc. 

I suspect that the shut downs have reduced vehicle accidents, less flus, etc.  

Presumably in the short term many thousands of lives have been saved.  The question is how many others will be lost as a result of the economic and social “poison pills” we have taken over the coming years.  There will be long term consequences that will be extremely painful - maybe permanent.  

On the other hand, how many lives will be lost from alcohol poisoning by those sheltered in place?  I still can't believe liquor stores are deemed essential.   

 

[84HuskerLaw]

On the other hand, how many lives will be lost from alcohol poisoning by those sheltered in place?  I still can't believe liquor stores are deemed essential.   

You shut down alcohol supplies and alcoholics would run amuk and all hell of another kind would happen.  Same with drug addicts. 

The same reason food stores are essentially open.  imo.  Many businesses are critical to life for everybody.  Trucking. Groceries, medical, etc.    

Sports are optional as most other entertainment things.  Short term stoppage (weeks, months or even a couple years) is “acceptable” to save thousands of lives - the thinking goes - but starvation, hunger, basic med care, etc are vital at all times almost.  Duration of deprivation varies of course.  

My idea was as near national “pause” of virtually everything as possible for 21 days simultaneously with a complete nationwide border/entry closing (100%) for three months with exception of ports of entry with national guard / military control. nobody in or out without inspection and quarantine.  

Id also keep borders closed until vaccine given to large part of population.  Years hence most likely.  

 

[junior4949]

You shut down alcohol supplies and alcoholics would run amuk and all hell of another kind would happen.  Same with drug addicts. 

The same reason food stores are essentially open.  imo.  Many businesses are critical to life for everybody.  Trucking. Groceries, medical, etc.    

Sports are optional as most other entertainment things.  Short term stoppage (weeks, months or even a couple years) is “acceptable” to save thousands of lives - the thinking goes - but starvation, hunger, basic med care, etc are vital at all times almost.  Duration of deprivation varies of course.  

My idea was as near national “pause” of virtually everything as possible for 21 days simultaneously with a complete nationwide border/entry closing (100%) for three months with exception of ports of entry with national guard / military control. nobody in or out without inspection and quarantine.  

Id also keep borders closed until vaccine given to large part of population.  Years hence most likely.  

I have a feeling as time goes by that we're going to find out just how essential the bolded really is.  I'm sure not everyone is familiar with what is going on, but we may very well be on the brink of breaking the chain.  There is a proposed trucker strike on May 1 if long haul truckers are not equipped with medical gear and masks.  Considering those in the medical field are facing shortages, there's little reason to think truckers will be getting them by May 1.  JBS which is a Brazilian company has made coming into work at their Greeley, CO and Grand Island, NE packing plants optional after a few workers tested positive.  The beef market has tanked.  One local 100+ thousand head feedlot has suspended purchasing replacement cattle after shipping fat cattle.  They are now less than half capacity.  They are not the only feedlots to do so.  Currently, feeder pigs are worth less than the cost of shipping them from the farrowing barns to the finishing barns.  It has now become more economical to euthanize them and abort pregnant sows than to place them in finishing barns.  The dairy industry is dumping large quantities of milk on the ground due to lack of storage and transport. 

Long story short, the people making food are shutting down.  The trucking industry is threatening to shut down.  Yet, here we are discussing whether we'll get to watch Husker football this fall.   

 

[N is for nowledge]

I have a feeling as time goes by that we're going to find out just how essential the bolded really is.  I'm sure not everyone is familiar with what is going on, but we may very well be on the brink of breaking the chain.  There is a proposed trucker strike on May 1 if long haul truckers are not equipped with medical gear and masks.  Considering those in the medical field are facing shortages, there's little reason to think truckers will be getting them by May 1.  JBS which is a Brazilian company has made coming into work at their Greeley, CO and Grand Island, NE packing plants optional after a few workers tested positive.  The beef market has tanked.  One local 100+ thousand head feedlot has suspended purchasing replacement cattle after shipping fat cattle.  They are now less than half capacity.  They are not the only feedlots to do so.  Currently, feeder pigs are worth less than the cost of shipping them from the farrowing barns to the finishing barns.  It has now become more economical to euthanize them and abort pregnant sows than to place them in finishing barns.  The dairy industry is dumping large quantities of milk on the ground due to lack of storage and transport. 

Long story short, the people making food are shutting down.  The trucking industry is threatening to shut down.  Yet, here we are discussing whether we'll get to watch Husker football this fall.   

Even more reason to put a stop to this sooner rather than later.  While this is a football thread my point is it’s more than football.  If you’d cant/won’t have football, you can say goodbye to many other things that are way more important if not essential.