Lorewarn
All-Conference
Another example of how QB recruiting is all but a complete crap shoot. You would think that the big hitters - Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Oklahoma, USC, Notre Dame, etc. - would be dominating this area, as they more or less get their pick. But it rarely works out that way.
QBs in the NFL Playoffs this year:
Patrick Mahomes (former NFL MVP and Super Bowl Champion) - started at Texas Tech, not exactly a national power nor recruiting powerhouse
Josh Allen (NFL MVP) - Wyoming
Jordan Love - Utah State
Lamar Jackson (former MVP) - Louisville, not exactly a national power nor recruiting powerhouse
Baker Mayfield - started at Texas Tech, not exactly a national power nor recruiting powerhouse
Jayden Daniels - started at Arizona State, not exactly a national power nor recruiting powerhouse
Russell Wilson - started at NC State then Wisconsin, neither exactly a national power nor recruiting powerhouse
I don't know that I'd agree that quarterback recruiting is such a crapshoot, but I'd certainly agree that reliably predicting quarterbacks that will transition and develop into quality NFL players is.
It's not like Bama, tOSU and others don't have good-to-great quarterbacks essentially every single year. I think it's more that being an elite college quarterback, on an elite team with an elite line and elite receivers, doesn't necessarily help you much towards transitioning into the league.
The closest I've anecdotally come to trying to figure out a formula (still imperfect and limited with plenty of exceptions) to predicting NFL quarterback success is finding someone at a lower program with good instincts, who developed by having to throw into tighter windows to less talented receivers, had to develop pocket presence by not always having a clean pocket, etc.