Minnesota: What Did We Learn?

I learned that a lot more people bought into the hype of this being a dark-horse playoff team with fewer than 2 losses. If that wasnt the case there would be near as much outrage. Unless you were thinking 11 or 12 wins, then you were expecting to lose 3 - 5 games. If that was the expectation, then you would have to think a game or two like Friday was possible. Even on the pre-season poll thread on here, only 7.8% thought 10 or 11 wins. https://www.huskerboard.com/threads/2025-season-prediction-poll-thread.105148/

The majority of the votes were in the following categories:​

10-3 (9-3 regular season with bowl win) 31.2%​

10-3 (9-3 regular season with bowl win) 24.7%​

8-5 (8-4 regular season with bowl loss) and 9-4 (9-3 regular season with bowl loss) were both tied at 10.4%​

 
NoKoolAidForME said:
I learned that a lot more people bought into the hype of this being a dark-horse playoff team with fewer than 2 losses. If that wasnt the case there would be near as much outrage. Unless you were thinking 11 or 12 wins, then you were expecting to lose 3 - 5 games. If that was the expectation, then you would have to think a game or two like Friday was possible. Even on the pre-season poll thread on here, only 7.8% thought 10 or 11 wins. https://www.huskerboard.com/threads/2025-season-prediction-poll-thread.105148/

The majority of the votes were in the following categories:​

10-3 (9-3 regular season with bowl win) 31.2%​

10-3 (9-3 regular season with bowl win) 24.7%​

8-5 (8-4 regular season with bowl loss) and 9-4 (9-3 regular season with bowl loss) were both tied at 10.4%​

Click to expand...
The fact we lost is not really the inherent issue. The fact that we lost because we got our asses completely kicked is the issue.
 
Not an expert, but my takes on the offense trying to find hope:
  • 1st and 10 from our 25 - easy RPO out read, Hunter turns a 5 yard gain into a 3 yard gain by backtracking
  • 2nd and 7 - we catch them in a safety blitz and Raiola looks for Hunter going deep, Hunter didn't realize it was an RPO and blocked. Sack, and a throwaway would've been ineligible man downfield at that point
  • 3rd and 9 - OK protection, not really sure what went on here. I like the idea of giving Hunter a shot but the ball was way out of bounds.
People can argue we should have called straight runs instead of RPOs, but if they're giving you 5-7 yards like this why wouldn't you take it?
1761060603089.png

Running into this on 2nd down isn't going to work, and I like the look if Hunter did what he was supposed to do:
1761060639097.png

Next drive:
  • 1st and 10 from our 15 - Split zone, actually looks good except Gottula got thrown and his guy is in EJ's face so it's only 2 yards
  • 2nd and 8 - Speed out to Johnson for 3. Not sure exactly what was going on on this play. I think it's the right read and we expected 12 to follow Hunter? In hindsight one of the 2 deep guys had to break open, but I think these are clearout routes and this is a "throw to EJ" read the second he has leverage on the LB, 6 - who doesn't even go with him. Good tackle by 12.
    • 1761060684004.png
  • 3rd and 5 - 3 man rush, we ran mesh and Minny was clearly ready for it. Nice play by Raiola to extend and by Lindenmeyer to find space for a big play.
  • 1st and 10 on our 46 - under center, 10 yard run (duo?). I assume this is what people wanted more of.
  • 1st and 10 on their 44 - 3 yard run, had potential for more but Pritchett couldn't get to his LB (which is a tough assignment)
  • 2nd and 7 - Draw with a box safety bailing at the snap, it's a good look. Aggressive fill by the LB, and not sure Spindler went for the right guy off of the double team. 2 yards.
  • 3rd and 5 - Slot fade to Key, PI. Spindler/Evans miss something and there is a free blitzer
  • 1st and 10 on their 24 - another under center run, no gain. Knaak is in at RG, and I assume he needs to pick this guy up? But I do not know the duo blocking rules. And maybe not, he and Evans get good movement on the DL so maybe this is just a nice play from the LB.
  • 2nd and 10 - here's the quick game everyone is talking about, not sure where he's supposed to go with it (Haarberg has a safety on him just off screen). Actually I'm sure it's EJ, but they've been tackling well so I assume that's why he passes it up. This is the diving flip to Hunter after a scramble, 10 yards.
    • 1761060754870.png
  • 1st and 10 - 4 yard run
  • 2nd and 6 - fade to Key. I do hate these, but he has the guy beat and it's a throw we have to be able to make. It was an 8 man box. Probably overcomplicating things but this could maybe convert to a slant if the CB is playing outside like this, but Key gets around him and he and Raiola just don't connect.
    • 1761060785972.png
    • Ball is in the air here, so I think it's more on Key for not getting to it or drawing PI:
    • 1761060812930.png
  • 3rd and 6 - it's the quick game stuff people wanted, it's all covered. Actually blocked pretty well (the guy on Raiola's left gets pushed by, but there's nowhere to go and stepping up runs into Knaak's guy. I think he wants to go for Hunter and probably would've gotten PI (14 smacks him rather than let him run by), but it was almost 5 seconds until he was sacked. Guys weren't open, sack.
    • 1761060836938.png
  • Field goal
Next drive:
  • 1st and 10 from the 25 - 5 yard run (Mozee)
  • 2nd and 5 - this is a deep shot, can't tell if anyone was open. I understand the complaints, but this is max protect and should never be a sack. Gottula gets beat, and then the DT dives at Knaak's knee (he dove, it's not Lutovsky pushing him down) so when Raiola stepped up it was into a pileup. I don't think this is technically legal, but Knaak needs to keep his feet.
    • 1761057683991.png
  • 3rd and 9 - Can't see many of the routes, Gotulla got beat again and the scramble drill back shoulder didn't work. Punt.
Next drive:
  • 1st and 10 from the 20 - 4 yard run
  • 2nd and 6 - PA rollout to Lindenmeyer, the lefty pass. 12 yards, harder than it should have been. This is also a 9 man box, you're welcome to run into it if you'd prefer a 0-2 yard gain.
  • 1st and 10 from the 35 - RPO glance to Clark, nice catch and run for 43
  • 1st and 10 from the 22 - nice 11 yard run, but this is not sustainable. DE was more interested in pancaking Lindenmeyer than he was finding the ball.
    • 1761058156350.png
  • 1st and 10 from the 11 - same play, this is why we weren't consistently running into the stacked boxes. Marked as a loss of one, should've been no gain.
    • 1761058215418.png
  • 2nd and 11 - Knaak gets beat early and has to just shove his guy upfield, Raiola probably runs forward too far instead of stepping up and Gottula's guy is able to just step inside and throw him down. Not great protection, but this one didn't need to be a sack based on the blocking.
  • 3rd and 17 - screen to Mills, not much doing because the edge player retraces quickly. BS targeting (fine if you want to call unnecessary roughness, but this happens multiple times a game)
  • 3rd and 27 - can't see the routes, scramble to make the field goal easier.
Final first half drive:
  • 1st and 10 from the 6, 1:02 left - deep shot to Hunter, good coverage (a little handsy) but he probably could have caught it and then we'd be in business.
  • 2nd and 10 - slant to Hunter, 12 yards
  • 1st and 10 - 3 main rush pressure up the middle, scramble for 7. Probably should have stayed in the pocket, but none of the receivers were open or moving so I can live with the scramble (also think he's starting to see ghosts at this point).
  • 2nd and 3 0:31 remaining) - 3 man rush, can't see the routes but they are deep. Gottula does kinda get beat, but Raiola could step or or roll out and does neither? Sack, end of half.
 
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NoKoolAidForME said:
I learned that a lot more people bought into the hype of this being a dark-horse playoff team with fewer than 2 losses. If that wasnt the case there would be near as much outrage. Unless you were thinking 11 or 12 wins, then you were expecting to lose 3 - 5 games. If that was the expectation, then you would have to think a game or two like Friday was possible. Even on the pre-season poll thread on here, only 7.8% thought 10 or 11 wins. https://www.huskerboard.com/threads/2025-season-prediction-poll-thread.105148/

The majority of the votes were in the following categories:​

10-3 (9-3 regular season with bowl win) 31.2%​

10-3 (9-3 regular season with bowl win) 24.7%​

8-5 (8-4 regular season with bowl loss) and 9-4 (9-3 regular season with bowl loss) were both tied at 10.4%​

Click to expand...
The problem with this kind of analysis is that in the preseason predictions, the people who were predicting a 3 loss season were thinking those 3 losses were Michigan, Penn State, and USC. The people who picked 4 losses were likely thinking those 3 plus Iowa. Anyone who scheduled a loss against Minnesota probably answered "7-5 regular season" or one of the lower options, which only accounts for ~15% of responses combined.

Obviously we know now that Penn State is a lot worse than advertised, but no one thought that was the case before the season started.
 
People always gripe on football-specific fansites, but I don't think the Husker gen pop turned on Scott Frost, Bo Pelini, or Bill Callahan as quickly or as angrily as they have on Matt Rhule in Game 7 of Season Three, which is roughly the place where they gave up on Mike Riley. A lot of the criticism is informed football analytics.

If Rhule lost his Penn State courtship and Nebraskans faith in the same game, that's one epic meltdown. He has every opportunity to win us back and at this point two more wins and no embarrassing losses might be enough to earn him another trip to the portal with a commitment to down linemen and a hot seat for the staff. A week ago I'd have said it's unthinkable Rhule's seat would be this hot this season. And we might never have an easier Big10 schedule.

Husker fans have been slammed for having too high expectations, but what's the option? Some yearn for Bo Pelini's 9 win consistency, but every one of those seven seasons ended with Nebraska barely ranked or unranked, irrelevant to college football and trending downward, and if you weren't around for that trust me -- no one was willing to accept that as the new status quo.

We may never have the 40 year run we once had -- maybe no one will -- but every now and then we should get to be Indiana or Vanderbilt or Arizona State or SMU or Missouri or Iowa State or even frikkin Minnesota.
 
In the interest of completeness, the second half. I'm bolding the plays that I think were very makeable and pivotal. Obviously all of the sacks were big, but I can't see the downfield routes so I'm focusing on plays where the concept was clearly there and we just didn't get it done.

  • 1st and 10 from our 25 - run for 3. Maybe an RPO? If so, probably missed a chunk to Barney. But I'm not sure it was, and Raiola does seem to get these batted a decent amount (assuming 14 would start dropping before Barney turns here)
    • 1761066603160.png
  • 2nd and 7 - uber-quick pass to Hunter for 5
  • 3rd and 2 - excellent check to a screen to EJ for 12, probably should have been more
  • 1st and 10 - nice counter from EJ for 12. Minny crashed pretty hard toward the middle and the corner didn't make the tackle. Makes me think we probably should have taken those check downs to EJ in the first half and given him more chances out there.
  • 1st and 10, their 38 - arrow to Barney for 1, probably should've been the hitch to Hunter for 6+. But Barney needs to be involved, so I'm ok with it.
    • 1761067249447.png
  • 2nd and 9 - gotta have this - good check at the line, I like that there is air under the ball, but it's just too far off.
    • 1761067362850.png
  • 3rd and 9 - not sure if anyone was open. Missed a stunt (EJ?), Raiola dodged but then was stuck trying to maneuver and ended up sacked. Tough to blame him when there was a free rusher, but he did dodge that rusher and then ran into more trouble. Easy for me to say he should've reset and thrown something, I can't tell if anyone was open and wasn't getting hit like he was. Might also be the play Rhule said the back didn't release like he was supposed to.
Next drive:
  • 1st and 10, our 17 - RPO, I think they fooled Raiola on the coverage. He looks at the hitch but the inside DB is dropping into it. Barney is wide open on the slant, I don't know if he's not part of the read, only part of the read against certain looks, if Raiola thought the OL was downfield already, or he just missed him. Scramble for 5 was good, but this could've been a huge play.
    • 1761067977946.png
  • 2nd and 5 - mesh, completely locked up. protection was ok, tried to scramble and got back to the LOS. I wouldn't hate flinging this up to EJ on the wheel, but the wheel on this play is the first read so that would've been risky to come all the way back and assume EJ is still running when he's normally getting the ball instantly or not at all.
    • 1761068128298.png
  • 3rd and 5 - probably had Barney over the middle, EJ gets lit up and its a sack.
Next drive we're down 21-6 and it's the 4th quarter.
  • 1st and 10 from our 25 - 4 yard run
  • 2nd and 6 - I think Flood? Dump off to EJ for 3.
  • 3rd and 3 - short pass to EJ for 9
  • 1st and 10 - gotta have this:
    • 1761068502946.png
  • 2nd and 10 - run for 2.
  • 3rd and 8 - blitz, sack before anyone even makes their breaks. This is the other (and more likely) play referenced by Rhule where the back was supposed to leak out and didn't. There were not many underneath defenders if he did that. Haarberg keeps that DB locked up, and if the pass is behind the LOS he can block him anyway.
    • 1761070390911.png
Down 18 with 5 minutes left, the game is probably over at this point.
  • 1st and 10 from our 25 - check down to EJ, fights for 10 and a first down.
  • 1st and 10 - 3 man rush, quick out to Lindenmeyer for 9.
  • 2nd and 1 - 3 man rush, screen to Hunter for 12. About the most you can hope for when they are dropping 8 into a screen.
  • 1st and 10 - run for 9, probably could've been more with a more decisive first cut. But again, it's a 3 score game with under 4 minutes to go. They are letting us run this.
  • 2nd and 1 - 3 man rush with a spy - I think that freaks Raiola out as he steps up, and he airmails the checkdown which had some room. Also leg whipped Corcoran while throwing which might've impacted the throw, but he could have set his feet.
  • 3rd and 1 - incomplete out route to Lindenmeyer
  • 4th and 1 - not really sure why this is the one you pick to run on (probably just to avoid complaints about throwing on 4th and short), our entire left side of the OL lunges and misses and Mozee has nowhere to go.
Game is totally over here, a minute left and 3 scores down.
  • 1st and 10 from our 45 - 3 man rush with a spy, TE delay which runs right into the spy so only 4 yards.
  • 2nd and 6 - both tackles get beat, Raiola doesn't step up (and is partially blocked by Lutovsky), miserable final play

We had a lot of chances where there was no one between one of our receivers and the end zone, and we got one PI call and a bunch of incomplete passes. Plus the early RPO where I have to think Hunter gets by the DB if he's running at all. I am not less frustrated than I was live, but maybe more hopeful it's correctable. Hunter needs to lock in, Raiola/Key need to figure out their timing, EJ needs to be on the same page as Raiola/OL in pass pro, and the OL needs to be less passive in pass pro. But there were at least 4 plays we were in position to make when it was a 0-1 score game that would've changed things tremendously, and a couple more after it was a 2 score game that could have sparked some 4th quarter magic. Close doesn't count for much, but they were really close on a lot of plays.
 

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Guy Chamberlin said:
People always gripe on football-specific fansites, but I don't think the Husker gen pop turned on Scott Frost, Bo Pelini, or Bill Callahan as quickly or as angrily as they have on Matt Rhule in Game 7 of Season Three, which is roughly the place where they gave up on Mike Riley. A lot of the criticism is informed football analytics.

If Rhule lost his Penn State courtship and Nebraskans faith in the same game, that's one epic meltdown. He has every opportunity to win us back and at this point two more wins and no embarrassing losses might be enough to earn him another trip to the portal with a commitment to down linemen and a hot seat for the staff. A week ago I'd have said it's unthinkable Rhule's seat would be this hot this season. And we might never have an easier Big10 schedule.

Husker fans have been slammed for having too high expectations, but what's the option? Some yearn for Bo Pelini's 9 win consistency, but every one of those seven seasons ended with Nebraska barely ranked or unranked, irrelevant to college football and trending downward, and if you weren't around for that trust me -- no one was willing to accept that as the new status quo.

We may never have the 40 year run we once had -- maybe no one will -- but every now and then we should get to be Indiana or Vanderbilt or Arizona State or SMU or Missouri or Iowa State or even frikkin Minnesota.
Click to expand...
Still alot of season ahead though. Yes, losing to Minnesota isn't a loss that was expected from a good season, perhaps a good season is still on the table. I think as Husker fans we are a bit scarred from 25 seasons of ending on a somewhat sour note. We don't even entertain the idea that we may finish the season stronger than we started it. In my opinion, while this team has obvious flaws, there is still alot that can be accomplished. I think this team has the talent to win the rest of the games on the schedule if things bounce our way.

If history is any indicator though, we will inexplicably lose the rest of the games this season, miss a bowl game, fire our coach, rinse and repeat.
 
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