KJ.

I think 40 time is something that can help evaluate a player and a guy who runs a 4.4 at 225 pounds will generally be a better player than a 165 pound guy who runs a 5.4 40.

So since you're basically saying that 40 times are everything, would you care to explain how Jerry Rice ran a 4.71 and Brandon Kinnie ran a 4.45? And how that slow guy is in the HOF while that speedy is now answering phones for a living?

Just face it buddy, the evidence is completely clear that 40 times are completely meaningless and say nothing about how that player is going to turn out. You're just as likely to make the NFL as a 5.9 40 guy than as a 4.4 40 guy. There's so many other important factors that make the 40 100% useless.

Do any fellow Boarders know if Bill from Lincoln ever calls into 1620 any more? I'm sure glad that gigglefest between Matt Stack and Nick Ball is over. Sadly it continues anytime Mr. Ball has on anyone from Lincoln Southwest.

He was on a few months ago.

Quoting isn't working for some reason. AFHusker, post #85.

 

So many freaking things wrong with this its obvious why no one has come after you for it. Can you please, PLEASE tell me just how bad this class is? I mean, it's a terrible class right? Based on a star rating that an analyst gave a kid. Have you watched any film, at all? Please, give it a try. Then, let's have a rational discussion prospect by prospect about weaknesses you see that make this class so terribly weak. Because, if you had watched film, you'd have seen:

1) We have a great QB class. Darlington is medically cleared and AJ Bush is just a freak athlete that can be moved around (I mean, not that you'd know that if you hadn't watched his film).

2) Larenzo Stewart (who does have an academic risk but has said he will make it) comes into the B1G as the fastest dude in the league from day one. Everyone wants speed, right? Speed kills and we don't have any because we aren't in the SEC? Then you have Wilbon who is your coveted 4 star and so I won't go there.

3) We have possibly the most athletic WR in the country in Monte Harrison who, according to recent reports, is now leaning towards playing football instead of the MLB. Pierson-El? Watch film. Drool. Repeat. Jariah Tolbert, big body with pretty impressive hands, perfect replacement for Q. Glenn Irons is exactly what this return game has been missing if it translates.

4) TE is the one weak spot in the class, although I really like Freedom. Maybe projects better to the defense side, but oh well. Get over it.

5) OL - Watch film. Drool. Repeat. For an interesting counter to these star gazers, please read the OWH article about Tanner Farmer on Signing Day. Went from a low 3-star player to a top 5 OL in the 2014 class. I bet he just got better, right? No, stars are done off of camps. Quote I liked, by Farmer's dad after Tanner had attended a few camps and saw a huge boost in ratings : "It's not like he's any different, I swear. Just went out to a few camps and proved himself." Throw in Gates and Foster and Stoltenberg and I have no reason to see you complaining.

6) DL - Great haul. It's been hashed out so many times on this forum I won't go over it again. Very pleased with the haul here.

7) LB - Only needed 1. It sure sucks we only got a low 3-star player though. Film please. Tell me you'd like to be steamrolled by Mr. Walton.

8) DB - Trai and Chris Jones are very, very underrated prospects. Trai, our 3-star CB, has NFL athleticism per NFL WR's. Throw in Mr. Kalu and Cockerell and I don't see what you're complaining about.

9 ST - Got a great, legacy kicker.

 

Now, if you'd like to watch some film and get back to me, I'd be more than happy to hash this out in a rational, fact-based discussion. Ignoring star ratings.

Ignore star ratings and rely completely on the hard-hitting analysis of "OH HE'S GREAT, HE'S A GREAT GREAT PLAYER, I DROOL WHEN I WATCH HIM YOU'RE DUMB FOR NOT THINKING THAT HAHA!".

I would have to say the person in the Lil' Red mascot. They have to put on that stupid effin thing every game knowing how much people hate it. Obviously they love NU enough to go through that shiat. It's more than I would do, that's for sure.

Lil' Red is a complete a-hole. Or at least, one particular one from a few years ago was. Herbie was cool. But Lil' Red can go pop himself.

 

 

 

You lost me at this projection. That red line is more or less pulled out of thin air.

The red line is a linear extrapolation of the blue line.

In general, this thread should really stop trying to discuss correlation vs. causation and statistics in general. It's painfully obvious that the hard hitting analysis required to answer that question isn't offered until the graduate level pyschology courses.

But...but Bo doesn't get private planes! Evil Harvey forces him to take the MegaBus around the country to see recruits!

Is there any chance Pat Smith might get an invite to the NFL Combine? He was pretty clutch for us this past season. He always made the kicks when we needed it. I don't know if he has the overall distance to be a NFL Kicker (the longest field goal I remember him making at Nebraska was 46 yards against Georgia), but I think he's definitely good enough that he should get to try out for an NFL team

Very doubtful. I'd say Maher was significantly better than Smith and he never really came that close.

What good would that do when it's the ability to understand the results that you're lacking?

Giving Bo a pass on his first year (which works to his advantage in this post), he has fielded 5 teams with an average rivals recruiting ranking of 21.76. Those same 5 teams have finished their seasons with an average AP ranking of 21.80. It's crazy how well 'manipulated bullsh#t' does at predicting results!

It would be the same story, although the degree of accuracy would vary. It's not a coincidence that the last few recruiting top 5's have been made up of Alabama, Florida State, Ohio St., etc and the bottom 5's are made up of Massechussets, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, etc. A pretty strong correlation exists, there's really no debating that.

It would not be the "same story" unless you consider varying by 30-40 spots within a "degree of accuracy". There is a correlation to some extent. But the last few top 5s have also included Texas, USC, Florida and Michigan. I haven't seen those teams finishing in the Top 5 recently. Struggling to get in the Top 25.

I'm not sure you know how this works.

Just for clarification, your recruiting number for 2009, would be an average of the five recruiting years leading up to 2009 (2005-09), correct?

Yep.

- You looked at one team that happened to correlate the recruiting rankings to team rankings. That is an incredibly small sample size. If you can run 30+ teams and find the same thing, then it would be interesting. In particular, try running Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas, USC, Mississippi, Michigan and Miami over the same time frame and see how that works out.

It would be the same story, although the degree of accuracy would vary. It's not a coincidence that the last few recruiting top 5's have been made up of Alabama, Florida State, Ohio St., etc and the bottom 5's are made up of Massechussets, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, etc. A pretty strong correlation exists, there's really no debating that.

Ranking of individual players are over-analyzed. They tell some of the story, but they're not the science. Class ranking are a manipulated bunch of bullsh#t.

Giving Bo a pass on his first year (which works to his advantage in this post), he has fielded 5 teams with an average rivals recruiting ranking of 21.76. Those same 5 teams have finished their seasons with an average AP ranking of 21.80. It's crazy how well 'manipulated bullsh#t' does at predicting results!

That alone should make you concerned about our low recruiting rank this year. But what you should probably be even more concerned about is the slopes of those two graphs. Taking red minus blue:

So in the first two years looked at, our AP ranking was better than recruiting would indicate. In the last three, it's been worse. On average, it's spot on. But does that trend look good to you? Since you probably can't visualize it, here it is:

And how often have you seen or heard people talking about a "death spiral"? If you follow the news at all the honest answer would be virtually every day. I think that it's worth the effort to try to combat the disinformation campaign because roughly half of the country believes the BS and they vote.

75% of people probably think the term has something to do with death, too, as opposed to how a probability distribution changes as one end is slowly truncated.

Combating disinformation is fine and dandy so long as you don't imply "their opinion is wrong, so our opinion is right". Most people probably think those events are complements, and they're not. Especially when it comes to something as pointless as "will the ACA work/fail/etc".

. . . it's like cheering that you won an argument with a toddler who told you that 2+2=Banana.

First day on the internet?

Seventh, still adjusting though.

I get a kick out of when guys with journalism degrees, in absolute terms, say things like "the actuarial death spiral won't transpire for several reasons" and "thus preventing a death spiral" like it's some sort of done deal and they are the leading technical experts on projecting that.

It's not just guys with journalism degrees. It's also groups with quite a bit of health care knowledge like the Kaiser Family Foundation:

. . . But, if this more extreme assumption of low enrollment among young adults holds, overall costs in individual market plans would be about 2.4% higher than premium revenues.

http://kff.org/healt...dable-care-act/

Keep in mind that this is using a number of 18-34 enrollees that is overtly pessimistic. Not quite the death spiral that had been hyped, eh?

 

Are you just as amused by the doom sayers who refuse to even entertain the idea that this might work?

 

About the only thing you can say for certain right now is that the health system has not yet self destructed, and also not yet become as efficient and awesome as anyone could ever dream. Both those futures exist with non-zero probabilities, but acting like we have any idea which path we are more likely on after 15 days of 2014 makes no sense whatsoever.

The latter isn't going to happen under the ACA. No one of any intelligence has even tried to claim otherwise. It's an incremental step . . . and a hell of a compromise at that.

 

I did chuckle at the phrasing of "the health system has not yet self destructed." You should write headlines for certain TV networks.

I think you're assuming my post was taking some sort of stance on the matter, which it wasn't. Just that it's funny that a journalist is critizing politicans' viewpoints, like anyone should be listening to them in the first place on a subject like that. In all the projections that have been put out there by either the Society of Actuaries or American Academy of Actuaries (you know, the people who actually know what they're talking about when it comes to things like this) I don't think that's ever been a serious concern. Saying "Look guys, the conservatives were WRONG!" is fine and dandy to appeal to a liberal audience, but at the end of the day it's like cheering that you won an argument with a toddler who told you that 2+2=Banana.

I get a kick out of when guys with journalism degrees, in absolute terms, say things like "the actuarial death spiral won't transpire for several reasons" and "thus preventing a death spiral" like it's some sort of done deal and they are the leading technical experts on projecting that.

About the only thing you can say for certain right now is that the health system has not yet self destructed, and also not yet become as efficient and awesome as anyone could ever dream. Both those futures exist with non-zero probabilities, but acting like we have any idea which path we are more likely on after 15 days of 2014 makes no sense whatsoever.

It's not as cool as a train, but yeah, it would still be pretty sweet!

OU just got a verbal from a 2 star OL that had offers from tamu, Texass, Florida st, Florida among others. Hmmm.

Solid! That's pretty much the exact same thing as our 2 star commit who has offers from Kent State, Northern Colorado, Tulane, and Utah.

Huskers <> Cowboys

 

Huskers won a game in the post-season.

You practice a mathematics with which I am unfamiliar.

You always have seemed to me as a C# kind of guy.

FSU just tried to throw on 3 & 10 from their 1 yd line, to no avail. Winston needs to watch the Gator bowl to see how it is done. Maybe TA can give him an up and close demonstration, if this thread comes to fruition.

Yeah, if this thread comes to fruition he'll definitely have to do that.

Wouldn't that be cool? Almost 20 years after 18-16, the rematch finally happens. I get that feeling that next year is going to be something special for us. Heck yes there are questions marks. Every team has them. However, there are so many positives. I also just have that feeling that something's going to happen. I haven't had that feeling since Osborne left.

 

Semi-finals: Nebraska 31 Oregon 27

FSU 44 LSU 13

 

Final: Nebraska 8 FSU 6 (We win on a last second field goal without the aid of any cheap calls from the refs to get us there).

 

Bo gets pissed at the end when his new bowl t-shirt is ruined by a Gatorade bath. He blows off the reporters as he leaves the field, still hot about the shirt. At the presser, he complains that, "If they want to fire me, go ahead." New Athletic Director, AJ Smith (formerly of the San Diego Chargers), takes him up on the offer and promptly fires Bo, then immediately hires Norv Turner to take the wheel of this dynasty!

 

Okay,the last paragraph was all in good fun. The reality is that at the end of the game Bo sings the school fight song with the band, stays around to give piggy back rides to kids, then takes his first vacation in 7 years, an overnight trip to Omaha. Bo then remains with the school for 4 more years, amassing an amazing 61-2 record, pulling in 3 more National Championships. Hey, if you are going to dream, why not dream big? Be that as it may, I honestly feel we'll be in the NC hunt next year. As for the piggy back rides, that might be unrealistic!

I like it!

But most importantly, it would keep our 9 win streak going.

.....it seems to me that those were the offenses I really wanted ours to look like. I'm willing to give him time and not calling for firings, but I'm not so sure that we are going to look like that currently. Not sure if that actually is the vision for our offense, or if Beck is the guy to do it, but that type of ingenuity was what I imagined when I thought of bringing a multiple-spread offense to Lincoln.

If only we could ever dream of a guy like Chad Morris being interested in an OC job here.

Pics or it didn't happen.

#9wins

^^^^

and he isn't even using correct stats....

HE'S NOT?!

 

No, he isn't. That is the reason I started this thread, I obviously wasn't clear. I didn't start the thread because he called the Huskers stuck on "not good enough", or that he compared them to the Cowboys. I also had higher hopes for this season and agree that it was a wasted opportunity for many reasons: coaches, injuries, players, etc...

 

However, Dirk says Bo is coaching for his 6th straight 9 win season, that is a flat out misrepresentation of the facts. Bo Pelini has had more 10 win seasons in his first 5 years as a coach than 9 win seasons. He has coached in championship games in half of his seasons here. Dirk CAN write whatever he wants, it's just sad that he chooses to.

So, in your mind, "misrepresenting facts" means using correct statistics but omitting other correct ones? What do you want the guy to do, mention that Bo has only won one career game in red jerseys on grass in every article just for clarity?

NUpolo has been dead-on this entire thread. If you don't like the content of Dirk's articles then you probably are just too afraid to admit where the problem really is.

^^^^

and he isn't even using correct stats....

HE'S NOT?!

While I should say that in no universe a kickoff specialist is deserving of a scholarship....sure, why not. It's not like we've been anywhere close to the 85 scholarship limit anyway.