That inability to finish had a lot to do with UW stepping up in crunch time and getting stops when they had to have them. After watching our gimpy, third string QB lead a depleted O on a clutch, game tying drive in the last minute two weeks in a row it is clear that this team knows how to step up when the game is on the line. On paper we had no business playing toe-to-toe with OSU yet we outplayed them for about 45 mins in that game. Good teams make clutch plays when the pressure is on. Obviously this UW team is not a great team or they would have won one of those 3 OT games, but they do have that winners mentality that makes every game close.
Much of your argument is solid, but it relies on hypotheticals. NU may play that perfect, mistake free game, but thats not what we have seen on the field. Based soley on objective results, we have seen NU get waxed multiple times in the two B1G years. UW on the other hand, has not. Even when nothing is working like us fans would like, we have been in every game. The actual product on the field shows that NU can lay an egg from time to time and they get smoked, while when UW lays an egg we lose in OT. Thats what I'm basing it on.
When I was watching that UW-NU game through my rose colored glasses, I saw it as us getting ultra conservative with the lead and handing you guys the game on a platter. I didn't see that as the 'true' NU waking up and a superior team coming back to win. We gave you guys that game by changing our O in the second half so as to avoid the game changing mistake and it just stalled completely. My point there is that its a two way street when it comes to 'what if's'. I just don't see any tangible support for the idea that NU playing great means that UW doesn't have a prayer in this game.
That being said in my gut I feel that NU wins this game. Nothing has gone right for the Badgers this year and I don't know why that would change now (using my own, tangible, logic against my biased heart). The NU injuries give me a little hope (though I wish both squads were 100%) but this year the ball has just not bounced our way.