neepster

Yes, I think our pass defense has been poor but it has not been as bad as the national rank of dead last by a 100 plus yards per game certainly.

 

One of the big problems for our defense has been our offense - the feast or famine effect one might call it. Our offense - no matter the 50/50 approximate ratio of passes to runs has very low time of possession. Drives are typically 3 and out or we move down the field quickly with 15 yard chunks. Even our TD drives which are only about 3 or 4 per game or so last less than 3 minutes. Often our possession may last barely 1 minute. We snap the ball with 10 or 12 seconds remaining on the play clock even after a run. We are running a sort of hurry up offense. Of course we have far too many incomplete passes and our completions tends to be for first downs. When we have the ball, between the lack of ordinary running plays within the boundaries, the incomplete passes, pass completions with receivers going out of bounds, etc, we stop the clock most of the time. As a result, we use very little game clock when we have the ball. This loads up on the defense. Our opponents are getting more possessions per game and more time to run plays against us. This gives them more yards per game statistically.

 

It's ~150 yards total, not per game, worse than Bowling Green.

 

Here are the stats from ESPN:

RK TEAM ATT COMP PCT YDS YDS/A LONG TD INT SACK YDSL RAT YDS/G

 

127 Bowling Green 256 162 63.3 1959 7.7 62 14 6 13 73 140.9

326.5

 

128 Nebraska 270 152 56.3 2091 7.7 55 10 3 13 93 131.3 348.5

This is probably a bad question to ask, but which would you rather have:

 

Mike Riley as is

 

Sarkisian drunk as a skunk?

 

So, it seems hard to understand, but defensively we actually regressed this week.

 

Last week we were 108/128 in total defense. Now we are 110/128.

 

Our pass defense remains worst in the NCAA at 128/128 and more than 150 yards higher than #127 Bowling Green... this is a level of bad that is frankly almost unbelievable. I don't think our players are that bad... I think the coaching and schemes are just really bad.

 

Our rush defense got slightly worse but it is clear that it is being helped by the fact that everyone is throwing on us a LOT.

 

On the plus side, Minnesota's offense #80 is much worse than Wisconsin #43, and Minnesota's passing offense is #94.

 

So, I think we may have a decent chance to win vs. Minnesota. Northwestern is an even WORSE passing team, so we might be able to pull off an upset there. However, Purdue is #52 in passing offense...

 

 

Actually red trout that is a quite interesting analysis and good reason for hope eventually. Unfortunately for this year there is little reason to hope for much. We're 2-4 through the first half and the second half opponents are significantly tougher than what we have played so far.

We just need to exorcise the unrealistic expectation demons which have so gripped Husker nation over 3 decades. We're no longer starting a season with a shot at a national title, much less a conference title. Our previous coach gave us an unrealistic feeling of national relevance at the expense of respectability with his sideline demeanor. It's time to take several steps back, take a few spoonfuls of humility, understand the situation, give this staff time to make this team their own. This truly is where the real fans show up. Time to support your team.

Well we certainly never will be relevant to the National title again if we go with the attitude that we have unrealistic expectations to ever be again. I think everyone would be a lot more willing to cut them some slack this year if they were showing any sort of decent coaching at all. We are worst in the nation for penalties, and while you can argue about offensive and defensive coaching,the continued penalties is ALL on the coaching. They are not instilling enough discipline to get the players to focus on not committing penalties.

 

The best predictor of future performance is past performance. .536......

It is interesting that in a week where their fans want them to run the ball more they face a team where you want to put as many receivers on the field as you can.

 

Yeah, that's just so dumb it is hard to countenance. I doubt Wisconsin's O-coordinator is that dumb, sadly...

Suh is the man! You know he supports the team, Twitter or no Twitter. He probably just has better things to do than hang out on Twitter all day.

In Bo's defense. The teams he lost so badly to were a LOT better than the 3 teams Riley has lost to. On the other hand, I was supremely impressed the team came back against Miami. They would never have done that for Bo.

 

I say give Riley to the end of next year. If the trajectory is not up, then get rid of him. I frankly doubt it will be but I would love to be surprised.

 

Anyone who looks at the data for even 5 minutes knows that the data says Wisconsin will destroy us.... not saying that is going to happen, but the line should have always been for Wisconsin.

And yet members of their forums wonder if they'll win another game.

 

Silly internet is silly.

 

 

You can say that again... their total defense is ranked #22 in the nation. Ours is #108. Our passing defense is DEAD LAST (#128). Not sure they should even be called 'Blackshirts' at this point. Yeah, I know, I'm just an armchair quarterback, but really, when was the last time we were THAT bad. Ever?

 

We have a good offense (#22) and a decent run defense (#13) and a pass defense that APPARENTLY couldn't cover an octogenarian. I think our run defense stat is inflated due to people passing on us so much though.

 

All Wisconsin has to do is run 30% of the time and throw 70% and they will win walking away unless our secondary has a visit from the Almighty...

Anyone who looks at the data for even 5 minutes knows that the data says Wisconsin will destroy us.... not saying that is going to happen, but the line should have always been for Wisconsin.

 

Nebraska is DEAD last against the pass (128/128)!! And Wisconsin has the national sack leader in Joe Schobert. Unless Wisconsin's coaches are idiots and run at us all game, they will win.

 

All they have to do is pass early and often, as our secondary clearly can't cover anyone worth a darn.

Did you watch Wisconsin try to throw the football last week??

 

 

Good point, but Iowa's pass defense is (while not great), much better than ours.

 

RK TEAM ATT COMP PCT YDS YDS/A LONG TD INT SACK YDSL RAT YDS/G

78 Iowa 174 94 54.0 1077 6.2 53 7 7 16 118 111.2 215.4

 

128 Nebraska 220 128 58.2 1769 8.0 55 9 3 12 86 136.5 353.8

 

And Wisconsin has played a bit better teams than we have (Alabama ring a bell?)... and they are still averaging 150yds/gm LESS in yards given up than our defense is. Anything can happen but the numbers seem to show that this could be ugly for us.

Not only no, h*ll no... Of course I don't think Riley is the answer either...

 

But a Bo coached team would have never come back against Miami. They would have given up in the 2nd quarter.

 

 

Here's some history on other programs who have gone through some hard times.

 

Oklahoma: 1989-1999 (11 years) 4 coaches; 3 losing seasons; 2 .500 seasons; Bob Stoops first year 7-5

 

Alabama: 1997-2007 (11 years) 4 coaches; 4 losing seasons; 1 .500 seasons; Nick Saban first year 9-6

 

So Cal: 1990-2001 (12 years) 4 coaches; 2 losing seasons; 3 .500 seasons; Pete Carroll first year 6-6

 

Notre Dame: 1997-2010 (14 years); 4 coaches; 4 losing seasons; 2 .500 seasons; Brian Kelly first year 8-5

 

Michigan State: 1991-2010 ( 20 years) 5 coaches; 9 losing seasons (0-11 in 1994); 3 .500 seasons; Mark Dantonio first year 7-6

 

Nebraska: 2002-2014 (13 years) 4 coaches; 2 losing seasons; 0 .500 seasons, Mike Riley first year TBD

 

 

Unless a miracle occurs, Nebraska will go at best 5-7 this year. Which is worse than any of the above coaches that eventually turned out well.

 

We will lose to Northwestern, Iowa, Michigan State and Wisconsin...

 

If we play like we did at Illinois we may also lose to Minnesota and Rutgers...

 

 

 

Don't forget Purdue. There are no guaranteed wins this year.

 

 

 

Sadly I was just thinking that.... Purdue actually had a great game against Mich State.... if they show up like that against us we will likely lose...

 

 

 

 

 

I don't get all of the love for Richt. He has shown time and time again the ability to do less with more. In his past 14 recruiting classes, only four of them have been out of the top 10 per rivals with the lowest of those four coming in at 15. He's had some decent seasons with those great recruits, but he's had a lot of bust seasons with elite talent as well. 06-four losses 09-five losses 10-seven losses 11-four losses 13-five losses. He's shown the ability to lose a lot of games with elite talent. I'm not sure we can expect over 70% of his recruiting classes here at Nebraska to fall in the top 10. Just imagine how many games he could lose with recruiting classes in the 20-30 range.

He's also playing in the SEC against many other programs who finished just as high or higher in the recruiting rankings. Can't win em all.

 

No, you can't win them all. However, you should be able to win some of them. Richt manages to lose most of them. There's a reason the Georgia faithful want him gone. I highly doubt you will find many/any Georgia faithful who expected any different outcome against Bama last week than what happened. It's what Richt does. He completely craps the bed in big games. It's his MO. He would be a terrible hire here because he wouldn't be able to get the talent here that he does in Georgia. We would see even more embarrassing losses under Richt than we did under Bo. I'd put him in the same category as Mack Brown: great recruiter, not so great coach.

 

 

Absolutely correct. Mack Brown's biggest problem was that for years he had some of the best recruits in the nation and did very little with them. He managed to take excellent recruits and make them mediocre. Richt is exactly the same and not what you need. It's not hard to be mediocre with great material. It's hard to be great with mediocre material. That is why Urban Meyer was a great hire for Florida. They saw what he did at Utah with very little and projected what he would be able to do at Florida with a lot.

 

We need the same. That's why I like Harsin at BSU. Or anyone else like that... at a smaller school with lesser recruits but still wins a lot.... that's what turns into the next Sabin, Meyer, etc.

 

 

Florida was absolutely stacked with talent when Meyer was hired. Why do you think he passed on his "dream job" at Notre Dame to go coach Florida? Easy, they were stacked with talent and Notre Dame wasn't. It's the same reason he came out of "retirement" to coach at Ohio State. Ohio State was absolutely stacked with talent, and he didn't have to tackle the SEC like at Florida.

 

Nothing against Boise's coach, but history just isn't on his side. Koetter was the one who really put Boise State on the map and directed the ship when they entered D1 ball. He went on to get fired at Arizona State. In comes Hawkins. He had outstanding seasons at Boise State only to move on to Colorado. Colorado may never recover from the damage Hawkins did. It's a little early to put Petersen who followed Hawkins as Boise's coach a bust at Washington, but he is currently 10-8 there which is almost an identical winning percentage as the coach he replaced there. Boise State coaches have not faired well at all when taking going up the next step.

 

Ok, those are some good points. Koetter had a couple reasonably decent years at ASU but agree that he did not turn out that well as a HC. Colorado certainly did not do well with Hawkins.... so maybe Harsin is not the best choice.

 

Be that as it may though, I still maintain that these sorts of coaches (young, with a track record of success on a team a level down from the Power 5) are the best hires if you can find the right one. People keep talking about picking 'known good' coaches, but these are exactly the sorts that aren't going anywhere and Nebraska has zero shot at (for a lot of reasons - climate, location, $$$, etc.). The only one I can say would be a good option would be Tressel, but considering he hired Bo to Youngstown State, I seriously doubt he will be coming to Nebraska. The other proven NC caliber coaches are either in the pros (Pete Carroll, Chip Kelly) or otherwise taken (Sabin, Meyer, Stoops, etc.).

 

Hence why I maintain that Nebraska's best shot at getting back to NC relevance is carefully choosing an up and coming young firebrand of a coach (a future Urban Meyer - who when he was hired at Florida had a winning percentage of around .81). Not a 61 year old with a .534 record and not a middlin' coach from some other middle running conference school. Those sorts of people do not bring you national championships. They just don't.

 

 

I don't get all of the love for Richt. He has shown time and time again the ability to do less with more. In his past 14 recruiting classes, only four of them have been out of the top 10 per rivals with the lowest of those four coming in at 15. He's had some decent seasons with those great recruits, but he's had a lot of bust seasons with elite talent as well. 06-four losses 09-five losses 10-seven losses 11-four losses 13-five losses. He's shown the ability to lose a lot of games with elite talent. I'm not sure we can expect over 70% of his recruiting classes here at Nebraska to fall in the top 10. Just imagine how many games he could lose with recruiting classes in the 20-30 range.

He's also playing in the SEC against many other programs who finished just as high or higher in the recruiting rankings. Can't win em all.

 

No, you can't win them all. However, you should be able to win some of them. Richt manages to lose most of them. There's a reason the Georgia faithful want him gone. I highly doubt you will find many/any Georgia faithful who expected any different outcome against Bama last week than what happened. It's what Richt does. He completely craps the bed in big games. It's his MO. He would be a terrible hire here because he wouldn't be able to get the talent here that he does in Georgia. We would see even more embarrassing losses under Richt than we did under Bo. I'd put him in the same category as Mack Brown: great recruiter, not so great coach.

 

 

Absolutely correct. Mack Brown's biggest problem was that for years he had some of the best recruits in the nation and did very little with them. He managed to take excellent recruits and make them mediocre. Richt is exactly the same and not what you need. It's not hard to be mediocre with great material. It's hard to be great with mediocre material. That is why Urban Meyer was a great hire for Florida. They saw what he did at Utah with very little and projected what he would be able to do at Florida with a lot.

 

We need the same. That's why I like Harsin at BSU. Or anyone else like that... at a smaller school with lesser recruits but still wins a lot.... that's what turns into the next Sabin, Meyer, etc.

Nebraska is DEAD last against the pass (128/128)!! And Wisconsin has the national sack leader in Joe Schobert. Unless Wisconsin's coaches are idiots and run at us all game, they will win.

 

All they have to do is pass early and often, as our secondary clearly can't cover anyone worth a darn.

Ummm I think the obvious guy to hire is Bill Cubit

 

Harsin or Frost. Got to go young and up and coming with a reasonable body of work showing excellence. Both of these guys meet that.

Well, considering we are 108th in total defense and 128th (DEAD LAST) in passing defense, I guess we pray to God that Wisconsin is stupid enough to not try to pass.

 

Amazingly the Blackshirts are #15 against the run, so clearly we have to hope Wisconsin is dumb enough to run, run, run against us.

 

I have some small hope that this will not be a blowout.... but frankly, the signs are all there...

 

 

Don't forget he also won the Heroe's Trophy last year. But he did lose out on the Bits of Broken Chair Trophy and the Freedom-to-run-for-408-yards-Trophy.

Still more trophies than the current coach has won at this level.

 

If the previous 7 years are a failure, can't wait to see how this year gets excused.

 

 

Or, and I'm just spitballing here, you could root for our team to be successful in this, the first year of our new coach.

 

 

I think everyone is rooting for the team to be successful. It's not the losing of two games in a row that has people that concerned. It is STUPIDLY losing two games in a row. Riley literally snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with 55 seconds left, against ILLINOIS. Good coaches don't do that. Even mediocre coaches don't do that. Only BAD coaches do that.

 

God help us against teams that are actually good.

What Nebraska needs (and what it most certainly did not get in Riley), is the next Urban Meyer. People forget that when Florida hired him, he was just a fairly new HC at Utah. But he was up and coming. They took a bit of a gamble that he could continue to succeed when he moved to the big time at Florida but it paid off. We need to find the next Urban Meyer for Nebraska. Someone like Bryan Harsin (Boise State's HC). Someone who is relatively young and has a track record of success (and by that I mean a strong winning percentage) in the lower ranks of college football. Not someone who is barely above .500 after coaching for years.

 

The best predictor of future performance is past performance. It's not always right, but it is far more right than anything else. In a perfect world, Nebraska would hire a Sabin or a Meyer or a Les Miles, but that isn't going to happen. Sabin not leaving Alabama, Meyer isn't leaving tOSU, etc. Yeah, maybe we could pick up Richt but I seriously doubt it. Even if he would come, the $$$ is probably not going to be there. Richt is getting $4M a year now. Heck, Sabin is getting almost $8M/year!

 

So Nebraska has to find someone up and coming and give them a shot... not cling to the hope that a big name will come free and want to go coach in the cold plains of the Midwest for the same money he is getting in Tuscaloosa or Baton Rouge, where he's driving distance to his house at the beach and his golf course where he can play 365 days a year.